Dortmund took a long time to find their rhythm last season, however, they had an excellent end to the 2024/25 campaign. The German side are unbeaten in 10 matches, winning eight of these matches. This impressive run helped them pull off a surprising comeback to secure the last German spot in next season’s Champions League.

In the Club World Cup, Dortmund have won against Mamelodi Sundowns and Ulsan, and drawn 0-0 with Fluminense. While their performances haven't been spectacular, they advanced to the round of 16 comfortably and as group leaders.

Monterrey, on the other hand, progressed after winning only one of their 3 group games. Despite somewhat surprising draws against Inter Milan and River Plate, the Mexican side hasn’t inspired much confidence. In the last Clausura of Liga MX, they were very inconsistent, finishing with 10 wins, four draws, and seven defeats.

Dortmund rank among the top 12 teams for shots and shots on target at the Club World Cup (averaging 14.3 and 6.7 per game), while the Mexicans are among the eight teams with the fewest attempts and shots on target. Look for Dortmund to win here.

Much of what Borussia Dortmund achieved in the 2024/25 season came through Serhou Guirassy. The striker had a brilliant year, scoring 35 goals in 48 matches - including 13 goals in 14 Champions League games, which earned him the tournament’s top scorer title alongside Barcelona’s Raphinha.

In the Club World Cup, Guirassy has scored just once so far, but his stats show how crucial he is to Dortmund’s attacking system. In three games, he’s already racked up 11 shots and seven on target, placing him among the top six players in those metrics in the tournament so far. Guirassy also tallied six assists last season, so it makes sense to get the assist market on side here.

Facing a Monterrey side that will need to push forward to stay alive, Guirassy and Dortmund should have opportunities to score. In their domestic league, the Mexican side conceded 30 goals in 21 matches, they will leave gaps for Dortmund to exploit.

While Dortmund have Guirassy, Monterrey also count on their own star forward. Germán Berterame is having an excellent season, with 14 goals in 23 appearances. Despite two quiet games against Inter Milan and River Plate, Berterame scored twice in the win over Urawa Reds.

Of his 14 goals, 10 came in 17 Clausura matches in Liga MX. In that competition, Berterame also registered 55 total shots and 26 on target - an impressive average of 3.2 shots and 1.8 on target per game.

Despite being favourites, Dortmund must be cautious about their defensive line. In the group stage of the Club World Cup, the Germans allowed 33 shots and 12 on target in just three games. That opens the door for Monterrey to have their chances, and if they do, Berterame is likely to be involved.

Ramy Bensebaini, Borussia Dortmund’s left-back who has been playing as a third centre-back, will be tasked with marking Nelson Deossa, Monterrey’s right-sided midfielder.

This duel is interesting due to the numbers. Bensebaini is one of the 10 most foul-prone players in the Club World Cup, having committed seven fouls in three matches. On the other hand, Nelson Deossa ranks third in fouls drawn, having been fouled 10 times in three games.

With this matchup, betting on Bensebaini fouls seems quite favourable. In addition to this specific duel, his adaptation to a new role helps explain the Algerian’s foul numbers. Though he’s played this position before, he still shows defensive lapses, which raises his foul tendency.

This adjustment is evident in the sharp rise in fouls committed. In the Champions League, Bensebaini averaged 1.3 fouls per match. In the Club World Cup, that number has increased to 2.3 per game.

Besides Deossa, Bensebaini will also have to deal with attackers Berterame and Lucas Ocampos, who combined have drawn five fouls in the opening games of the Club World Cup.