Sporting’s Ousmane Diomande presents an intriguing foul market opportunity ahead of their crucial European clash on Wednesday. Priced at 2.10 with Paddy Power to be fouled at least once suggests a 47.6% probability, which is considerably higher than SkyBet’s much shorter odds of 1.36 (a 73.5% probability) – indicating strong value in this market.

Diomande is no stranger to drawing fouls, averaging 0.54 per 90 minutes this season. In his last 7 matches, he has drawn 5 fouls across 4 separate games. His fouls drawn per 90 rate in Europe rises to 0.68, further reinforcing his tendency to attract challenges under increased intensity. Notably, he was fouled 2 times in the first leg.

The key to this selection is Diomande’s direct opponent, Serhou Guirassy. The striker is averaging 0.84 fouls per 90 minutes this season, rising sharply to 1.24 in European competition (committing a huge 4 fouls in the first leg).

His aggressive style makes him a prime candidate to challenge Diomande repeatedly. Sporting are likely to chase possession, looking to make up their 3-0 deficit. Diomande will be heavily involved in build-up play, he averages 92.85 touches per 90 in the Portuguese league.

Increased ball involvement, coupled with Dortmund’s pressing approach and a nice direct matchup, should see Diomande facing multiple challenges, boosting his likelihood of being fouled at an excellent price.