Roda started the season with a strong 3-1 away win at Helmond. They led 2-0 at halftime and will be really pleased with an opening day victory. Cain Seedorf bagged a goal and an assist, which was a welcome boost for a player who missed every game from February due to injury at the back end of last season. From an offensive perspective, an xG of 2.48 was really healthy with six shots on target. Some pre-season results included a 3-3 draw and a 3-5 defeat, so their fixtures look primed for goals right now. 

Travelling here are a De Graafschap side who were the third highest scoring team last season with 73 goals in 38 games. Their fixtures averaged 3.20 goals per game, which increased to 3.40 at home. The biggest problem they had was at the other end defensively and they conceded the most goals of any team that qualified for the playoffs. 25 of their 38 games went over 2.5 goals, and they started this campaign with a 3-2 win vs VVV Venlo. That game had a staggering combined xG of 4.66. Once again, taking the over 2.5 goal line looks like the best bet with De Graafschap involved.

It was no surprise to see VVV Venlo involved in a wild game last week, then they lost 2-3 at De Graafschap. Their fixtures on the road have been known for high-scoring encounters, and the combined xG was 4.61, with VVV looking especially porous, conceding three goals, 29 shots, and 10 on target. From a defensive perspective, they were really poor, and the initial impression is that they will have to score several goals themselves to obtain points. 

VVV are odds-on favourites to beat a Jong PSV side who surprised everyone with a 3-1 win vs Emmen in matchday one. Jong PSV were also the underdog that day, so they might relish this opportunity. As a ‘B team’ in a division with no relegation, they are under no pressure, and the general feeling is to play with freedom, looking to entertain.

They dominated that fixture as well, winning the xG count 1.94 to 0.37. Scoring a brace of goals was 19-year-old striker Robin van Duiven, who will be looking to kick on here. Jong PSV could be a lively outsider and outperform their odds, but taking the over 2.5 goal line looks like the best bet. Based on last week’s performances and the metrics, this could be a shootout.

One of the favourites to win the Eerste Divisie this season is relegated club Waalwijk, who obtained an opening day 3-2 win away to Jong AZ. They were around evens favourites to prevail last week and just got over the line with a second-half goal after the match had a crazy start, being 2-2 after just 28 minutes. Waalwijk lost the xG battle last week and lost the shot count 13-8, so it wasn’t the most convincing performance. In Jesper Uneken, they have one of the most valuable centre-forwards in the league and he was on the scoresheet immediately, bagging the winning goal.

Waalwijk are now odds-on favourites to win their first home match of the season against Helmond. They should take the three points, especially if Helmond defend as they did last week. The visitors lost 1-3 vs VVV Venlo and conceded an xG of 2.48, with half the shots they conceded on target. This is generally a lower-half club in this league who lost 10 out of 19 road fixtures last season with a goal difference of 23:37. Taking over 2.5 goals again looks like an excellent bet. Waalwijk could cover this line on their own but if Helmond are to get anything from the game, you feel they are going to have to be aggressive and look to score goals.