First up we have Hull City v Plymouth at the MKM Stadium. Liam Rosenior has been in charge at Hull City for 11 months now. At first, he made them quite solid and difficult to beat. His job in 2022/23 was reminiscent of the way that Derby County, under Rosenior and Wayne Rooney, played, cautious and resolute but with the ability to play on transition.

What has been seen this season though, builds on that initial work. Recruitment has been targeted on taking Hull City that step forward into being able to create chances with the ball and adding a few more avenues to attack from. Now we see Hull carry the ball forward with the tricky pace of Jaden Philogene, the hustle and bustle of Liam Delap, and the long-range threat of Scott Twine, all of which support the goals of Aaron Connolly. Hull have a plethora of attacking output and have retained a degree of defensive solidity alongside it.

Defensive solidity has not been a major part of Plymouth’s identity, especially away from home. Despite an initial 0-0 draw away at Watford, the last three trips away from Devon have proven tough. The Pilgrims not being great travellers may carry a sense of irony, but it is something that Steven Schumacher will want to fix soon.

Eight goals have been shipped by Plymouth in their last three away games, and the xG numbers back up the goal stats as they are conceded chances in greater numbers, 1.9xG vs Birmingham, 2.1xG vs Preston, and 2.3xG vs Bristol City. The fact that they have still managed to score in each of these games is a testament to their gameplan and to the open nature of Championship football this season.

Over 2.5 goals in this one is the bet here.

Bolton Wanderers are weakened but will not be panicking ahead of their trip to Port Vale. The Trotters have not set the pace in League One as much as they would liked and will be without key defenders Gethin Jones and Ricardo Santos at Vale Park, but they have a strong repeatable process in their fourth season under Ian Evatt. They have scored in seven of eight league games and battered Manchester United U21s 8-1 in the EFL Trophy in midweek, so the mood in the camp should not be an issue.

Vale have scored in seven of nine, and five of five at home, and run the risk of dropping below Bolton and out of the play-offs if they suffer defeat on their turf. The hosts have already looked more capable in the attacking third this season than they did last term, with Andy Crosby making some stylistic tweaks to the drilled organisation of Darrell Clarke’s spell at the club.

Bolton could cover an over 2.5 goals bet on their own, and that combined with the key absentees in defence may produce a goal-heavy game on the road.

Two clubs less than an hour apart from each other with completely different ideologies when it comes to how to run a football club but with managers who believe the best way to win football matches is to score a lot of goals.

Wrexham are seeing an astonishing average of 4.44 goals scored per match, helped by bonkers 3-5, 4-2, 5-5 and 0-5 scorelines. They have seen over 2.5 goals scored in six of their nine league matches and their combined xG and xGA averages around 2.94 per game.

Chronic defensive issues have played a part. Ben Foster may have retired but their defence does not cope well with people running at them – they have now conceded five goals on three occasions and their only two clean sheets came against toothless Tranmere Rovers and Grimsby Town sides.

They are scoring for fun, however, and are further helped by Paul Mullin, Steven Fletcher and James McClean being involved now. They have now fallen short of 1.1xG in a single game this year and are averaging 2xG across the campaign.

Crewe should provide a good test. They have seen an impressive 3.89 goals per game, helped by three or more goals being scored in eight of their nine outings.

Crewe’s ability to score goals is key to that – they have scored two or more on eight occasions. Lee Bell’s ability to mix and match within games to get more from his side has been impressive – they have the best second-half record in the league.

However, they have conceded in every league game and are averaging 1.3xG against. They have conceded six or more shots on target in six of their games too.