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England v Japan 4/1 Bet Builder Tips & Match Preview

England v Japan 4/1 Bet Builder Tips & Match Preview

Monday 30 March, 20263 min read
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Ramis Ibrahim

Avid football writer and Premier League specialist. Meticulous eye for player prop bets across English, European and International football honed over four years in football analysis.

  • An Asian nation has never beaten England.

  • England have won just two of their last seven friendly matches.

  • England have scored in each of their last 21 matches across all competitions.

  • 10 of England’s last 18 goals have come from set pieces.

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England v Japan Best Bet Builder Bets
  • England v Japan
  • International Friendly
  • 19:05
3 Selections @ 4.75

Japan to Score @ 1.66

I took this angle when Uruguay played England last week, with the South American side priced at 1.8 to score at Wembley in their 1-1 draw. 

England looked far from secure at the back. Thomas Tuchel did rotate the squad, which can take partial blame for England conceding, but I think the backline is the weakest part of this England squad and has been exposed at times by the better sides that England have faced under Tuchel.

This price is probably so generous due to England’s defensive record during in qualifying, in which they didn’t concede a goal. They did, however, concede three goals against Senegal in a friendly last year, and conceded against Uruguay last week from the penalty spot.

Japan have been growing on the international stage for some time, and arrive for this game having avoided defeat across their last five matches. They’ve scored in all five of those games, including against Scotland at the weekend.

Harry Kane to have 2+ Shots on Target @ 1.66

Harry Kane should come into the starting lineup here after watching from the sidelines as England drew 1-1 with Uruguay. England clearly miss Kane whenever he is rested or unavailable, and the backup options to him are a stark drop-off from the quality he offers England.

Kane is England’s all-time top goalscorer with 78 goals across just 112 caps (0.69 goals per game), which is an incredible record to maintain on the international stage. Kane netted eight goals across his eight starts during qualifying, taking 31 shots across those matches (4.10 per 90).

Of those 31 attempts, 16 found the target - working out to an average of 2.10 shots on target per 90. Furthermore, Kane is averaging 2.66 shots on target per 90 in the Bundesliga this term, so he is covering this line very regularly and quite comfortably in most matches. He should get good service here, with England expected to line up with a stronger XI than the one that took on Uruguay last week.

Elliot Anderson 2+ Fouls Won @ 1.72

I think Elliot Anderson should be one of the first names on the team sheet at the World Cup, which may seem a bit reactionary given his relatively recent breakthrough into the national team and the variety of options that England have available to partner Declan Rice and Jude Bellingham in midfield.

Anderson complements those two more than the likes of James Garner, Kobbie Mainoo or Adam Wharton and has impressed me every time he’s lined up for the Three Lions. Winning fouls is a strong part of Anderson’s game, he’s drawn 68 fouls across his 31 starts in the Premier League this season (2.21 per 90) and is averaging around 90 touches per 90 in the top-flight.

To add to this, Anderson drew eight fouls across just four starts during England’s qualifying campaign (1.95 per 90). His touches per 90 increase for England to over 120 touches, aiding his ability to win fouls.

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📈 England v Japan Form & Stats

Thomas Tuchel experimented pretty heavily in England’s 1-1 draw with Uruguay last week, and I was far from impressed with the majority of the players. It is only a friendly, so we shouldn’t be in a rush to judge those players, but I’m still a touch concerned about England’s ability to rival the truly elite nations, as we just haven’t seen Tuchel’s side take them on during his reign.

I thought James Garner, Marcus Rashford and Djed Spence were the standouts from last week's draw - though only really Marcus Rashford has his spot on the plane confirmed. We should see an XI much closer to the one that Tuchel will look to deploy in the first game of the World Cup against Croatia here, with stars like Kane and Jude Bellingham set to come into the starting lineup.

Japan are a brilliant footballing nation and have been developing their international reputation well over the last few years with appearances at major tournaments and a dominance of Asian football. This progress on the international stage goes hand in hand with the development of the J-League, which serves as a hub for Japanese talent that is now spreading across Europe.

Japan have been known in the past to be quite a technical side, but have developed in the physical aspect of the game over the last few years. England still hold an advantage over them in that, but I wouldn’t expect the away side to be bullied by England here, given their improvement in fitness and physicality, which previously hindered them on the international stage.


📔 England v Japan Formation & Team News

England should continue to line up in a 4-2-3-1 shape with senior players like Kane returning to the starting XI after being given a rest against Uruguay last week. I think Tuchel is set on a midfield three of Anderson, Rice and Bellingham, and I would agree that this is the most balanced midfield England can put together at the moment, with Anderson filling a profile that England have been desperately missing.

In forward areas, England should opt for Morgan Rogers, Cole Palmer, Anthony Gordon and Kane with the likes of Bukayo Saka and Noni Madueke returning to Arsenal with ‘injury’. Phil Foden probably had his last chance to really show people that he can perform for England, but squandered that opportunity with a bit of a nothing performance against Uruguay, where he was later outshone by Palmer coming off the bench.

Japan lined up in a 3-4-3 shape during their 1-0 win over Scotland. They are expected to persist with the same shape here and should feel as though they can cause England problems. Japan will be aware that they won’t have much of the ball, but they can be really effective in the pockets of attack they will be able to put together in this contest.


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