• England have won four of the last five meetings between the sides

• England have won 6+ corners in three of their four games this tournament

• Italy have had 5+ corners in all four games this tournament

Italy and England meet in the first semi-final of this year’s tournament on Tuesday night, both having left it late to seal their place in the last four. After finishing second in their respective groups and edging narrow quarter-final wins, you’d be forgiven for thinking this tie is finely poised. But that couldn’t be further from the truth.

The bookmakers reflect it, and the stats justify it. Le Azzurre come into this as 6/1 outsiders, and rightly so. They’re ranked nine places below England (14th vs 5th), making their first major tournament semi-final since 1997, and have failed to beat England in any of their last five attempts (D1, L4). Meanwhile, 82.6% of England’s squad plays in the WSL – widely regarded as one of the most competitive leagues in the women’s game. All signs point to a gulf in class.

⚪ Lionesses Built For This Stage

This marks England’s third straight Euros semi-final, and sixth major tournament semi in a row. The pedigree is there. The way they clawed their way back into the game against Sweden, scoring twice in two minutes before winning on penalties, was exemplary tournament resilience, a blend of character, depth and elite mentality.

Keeper Hannah Hampton’s shootout heroics and Lucy Bronze’s composure under pressure underlined the big-game mentality of this squad. England are hitting form at just the right time, and with a final in their sights, they’ll expect nothing less than to get past Italy in regulation.

🔵 Le Azzurre Chasing History

Italy booked their place in the last four with a dramatic 2-1 win over Norway, secured by a vintage Girelli brace (which included her 90th-minute winner). While the Norwegians lacked cohesion at pivotal periods, Italy’s tactical discipline and resilience got them through. This is a huge step forward for Le Azzurre, reaching their first major semi-final in nearly three decades.

That said, there remain significant concerns. Set-piece defending has looked shaky, transitions have been vulnerable, and possession retention poor when under pressure. Unless they can produce another captain’s driven performance from Girelli and shut England out wide, it’s hard to see them containing this Lionesses side.

📊 England Women v Italy Women H2H

The Lionesses have won four of the last five meetings between the sides (D1), scoring 14 goals to Italy’s five. While Italy did beat England in the group stage of the 2009 Euros campaign, it was England who went on to reach the final. Recent history, form, and quality all favour the reigning champions here.

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* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.