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Liverpool v Everton 3/1 Bet Builder Tips, Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Liverpool v Everton 3/1 Bet Builder Tips, Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Thursday 18 September, 20253 min read
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Andy Robson

Andy Robson is the most popular betting tipster in the UK. With a combined following in excess of 1 million people across his social media channels, Andy has built a loyal audience by consistently providing quality betting content for over nine years. He is the founder of Andy’s Bet Club, which he launched in 2019.

In this article...

Liverpool welcome Everton to Anfield in the early kick off for the Merseyside derby. 

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Liverpool v Everton Best Bet Builder Bets
  • Liverpool v Everton
  • Premier League
  • 12:30
4 Selections @ 4.32

Over 0.5 Everton Goals

Everton haven’t scored at Anfield in the Premier League since their 2-0 win over the Reds back in 2021, but they won’t get many better opportunities to break this record with how both sides have started the season.

Liverpool are far from secure at the back; they have conceded 2+ goals in three of their five matches across all competitions so far this season, which increases to 2+ goals conceded in four of six matches if you include the Community Shield. Something clearly isn’t right in the Liverpool backline, and Everton’s best players have been in the wide areas so far this term with Grealish and Ndiaye, which is the exact area of the pitch where Liverpool have been struggling.

Milos Kerkez and Jeremie Frimpong have been caught too high up the pitch on multiple occasions already this season, which leaves Van Dijk and Konate too exposed when opposition sides are able to get a few passes forward. Jack Grealish has registered four assists already this season and will relish the space afforded to him if Liverpool persist with the same defensive structure.

Over 1.5 Liverpool Cards

There is always potential for high card counts in these derbies, though it should be noted that referees are taking an increasingly lenient approach, especially early on, in these highly emotional games. This is to ensure that the game isn’t derailed by a dodgy decision by the officials, though they have been struggling to limit that interference.

The Manchester Derby last week was a good example of that caution, but that derby never really caught fire in the way this one could, with Everton coming into the game with their best chance of taking something from Anfield in the last few years. Liverpool received two yellow cards in this fixture last season and also received four cards in the 2-2 draw between the sides at Goodison Park.

Liverpool are an aggressive side when they need to be. You don’t often see the aggressive side of the Reds as they are so dominant in possession, but derby games often break trends and patterns, so we could see that aggressive side from Slot’s men here, which can aid our selection.

Liverpool have received two or more cards in three of their four Premier League matches this season.

Mohamed Salah to have 1+ Shots on Target

Salah has returned from the international break in goalscoring form with goals against Burnley and Atletico Madrid since Liverpool returned to usual action. Salah had six shots against Atletico Madrid last time out in his most convincing performance of the season yet, after a few underwhelming performances. Three of those efforts found the target, with one ending up in the back of the net.

In the Premier League, Salah has had five shots across his four Premier League appearances so far (1.25 per 90) with three of these attempts finding the target (0.75 per 90). This shot volume is well below Salah’s norm, and we can expect it to rise as the season unfolds. Salah averaged 3.46 shots per 90 and 1.63 shots on target per 90 across his 38 Premier League appearances last season, so we can expect a drastic rise in his shot volume when we get further into the season.

That being said, Salah is still managing to find the target with a low shot volume at the moment. Not many players can play below their best level for the opening five games of the season and still come away with five goal contributions, which shows that Salah is always a threat, even when he isn’t at his sparkling best.

Salah also has a strong record against Everton when they’ve visited Anfield in the Premier League over the last few seasons. He’s scored three goals and provided an assist in the last four clashes between the sides in the Premier League at Anfield.

Florian Wirtz to Commit 1+ Fouls

The criticism and commentary around Florian Wirtz continues just five games into his Liverpool career. I do think he’s getting used to the speed and intensity of the Premier League with every passing week, but the ferocity of this derby may catch him out and force him to commit a few fouls.

Wirtz does a lot of running without the ball. There is an argument to suggest that he would benefit from running around a bit less and instead focusing on popping up in dangerous areas, but for now, he looks to continue to press with energy and occasional overexuberance. Wirtz committed a foul against Atletico Madrid last time out of the 10 duels he contested in the game.

Wirtz has committed three fouls across his four Premier League appearances so far this season (0.80 per 90), with the 22-year-old committing 22 fouls across his 25 starts in the Bundesliga last season (0.84 per 90). I expect both of these metrics to increase here with Everton making the trip over to Anfield.

Liverpool committed 20 fouls in the meeting between the sides at Goodison Park last season, so there is certainly scope for the Reds to end up with a high foul count here. Wirtz will be up against a workmanlike Everton midfield that has shown early promise when it comes to winning fouls:

  • Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall - 2.0 fouls won per 90

  • Idrissa Gueye - 1.04 fouls won per 90

  • Tim Iroegbunam - 1.22 fouls won per 90

(25/26 PL Stats)

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Liverpool v Everton Best Longshot Bets
  • Liverpool v Everton
  • Premier League
  • 12:30
3 Selections @ 33.69

Over 3.5 Everton Corners

Everton are much more of a threat from open play than they were last season, with the attacking additions they’ve brought in over the summer. However, set pieces are very much still part of the David Moyes DNA, and we can expect the Toffees to rack up the corner count with the strong players they have in wide areas.

Grealish, Ndiaye, and Dibling are all superb in 1v1 duels and can force their opposite fullbacks to their own byline, which should aid our selection here. Everton racked up 10 corners against Aston Villa last time out and have registered two or more corners in all four of their Premier League matches this season.

Everton registered five corners in this fixture last season despite only having 26% of the ball and five shots.

Jack Grealish Anytime Assist

Jack Grealish looks back to his best in the early weeks of his Everton career. He picked up the Premier League player of the month award for August, mainly for the four assists he’s registered since joining the Toffees.

Grealish has always been more of a creative player than a direct shot threat. He’s excellent in 1v1 duels and will savour the opportunity to take on Frimpong here, who is very forward-thinking and will give Grealish space when Liverpool are caught up the pitch, which has happened on a few occasions already this season.

Grealish has created 10 chances across his three starts for David Moyes’ side (3.15 per 90), which shows the consistency with which Grealish is creating chances at the moment. He will get opportunities here, seeing as Liverpool have had early teething problems in trying to organise their defensive line.

Some of Grealish’s other underlying metrics this season paint a picture of a player with confidence reinstilled; he’s had 30 touches in the opposition box and won 11 fouls, as well as completing eight dribbles.

James Tarkowski to be Shown a Card

Tarkowski committed two fouls and was shown a yellow card in this fixture last season. He was very fortunate not to be sent off in that game, as it was quite a crunching tackle that may have seen him given his marching orders in any other environment.

Tarkowski is yet to pick up a yellow card this season, but did collect six yellow cards in the Premier League last season, whilst averaging 1.08 fouls committed per 90. He is naturally an aggressive centre back and will take on an even more important role than usual in this derby in the absence of Jarrad Branthwaite, who is still sidelined.

Tarkowski’s aggressive nature should come to the fore in this derby. He is likely to start up against Ekitike, who has been a real handful in the early weeks of the season, but could later face up against Alexander Isak, so it won’t be a quiet evening for the English centre back.

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📂 Liverpool v Everton Cheat Sheet

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📈 Liverpool v Everton & Tactics

Liverpool have made a habit of leaving it late so far this season. Their winning goals in each of their five games this season have all come after the 83rd minute. They say this is the mark of champions, but I’m concerned as to whether Liverpool will be able to continually get out of jail with their defensive issues.

Liverpool have conceded 2+ goals in three of their five matches so far this season. This certainly isn’t sustainable and points to a wider issue around their defensive structure. The Reds gave up a two-goal lead against Atletico Madrid last time out, which points to Arne Slot’s side being a bit unsettled at the back in the early stages of the season.

That being said, Liverpool have won all five of their games this season and scored 12 goals across these fixtures. They’ll need to find a solution to their porous backline eventually, seeing as Arsenal look to be rock solid at the back, just as they were last season.

Everton look and feel like a completely new club. Following their opening day defeat against Leeds on the road, the Toffees have remained unbeaten across their last four matches, winning three of these games.

Jack Grealish has been the clear standout performer with four assists from his four Premier League appearances this season. There have also been notable performances from Ndiaye, Dewsbury-Hall, and James Garner who have all contributed to Everton’s early-season success.

The style hasn’t changed too much under Moyes but the new faces have added an extra layer of excitement. Everton have a really poor record at Anfield over recent years; they’ve failed to even score in their last four trips to Liverpool’s home ground.


🏁 Ref Watch

Darren England

Fouls

Yellow Cards

Red Cards

24.00

3.50

0.00

Stats are taken per 90 minutes for all of Darren England's 4 matches so far across all competitions this season.


📊 Liverpool v Everton Stats

  • Liverpool have won the last four Merseyside derbies at Anfield - all to nil.

  • Liverpool have conceded 2+ goals in three of their five matches so far this season.

  • All of Liverpool’s winning goals this season have come after the 83rd minute.

  • Everton have started the season with three wins, one draw and one loss from their five matches.

  • Jack Grealish has registered four assists across his four Premier League appearances this season.


Football Predictions at Andy's Bet Club

Keep up with our Football Betting Tips, Accumulator Tips, and Gem Bets, as well as Premier League Predictions and Liverpool v Everton Betting Stats for this weekend, on Andy's Bet Club.

We've also got plenty of other content for Saturday's Premier League fixtures, including Quick Previews for Brighton v Tottenham, Burnley v Nottingham Forest, and Wolves v Leeds, as well as Bet Builders for Man United v Chelsea and Fulham v Brentford.

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.


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