Martin Zubimendi has arguably been Arsenal’s best player this season, but his game is naturally accompanied by quite a bit of tenacity, as he is tasked with managing the defensive side of the game in midfield.

His role allows Declan Rice and Arsenal’s fullbacks to push up the pitch, but this does occasionally leave Zubimendi outnumbered and needing to commit fouls to stop the opposition having a direct path to goal. Zubimendi committed one foul when the sides met earlier on in the season as Arsenal struck in the final minutes to earn a 1-1 draw.

He has committed 27 fouls across his 30 starts in the Premier League this season (0.93 per 90), and is likely to be up against Rayan Cherki, who has won 30 fouls across his 14 starts in the Premier League this season (2.06 per 90).

I think Man City have the edge here, Guardiola has a wealth of experience in situations like these which is notably missing from Mikel Arteta’s CV. Guardiola has won 21 of the 24 cup finals he has taken charge of, and has won the EFL Cup on four separate occasions - most recently winning the trophy in the 2020/21 season.

By contrast, Mikel Arteta has only won one trophy at Arsenal, which was the FA Cup triumph he achieved in his first season - which was mainly with Unai Emery’s squad which was later dismantled by Arteta. I think this experience will be key in a final that could be tight, with this also looking like it will be Guardiola’s last chance of winning a major trophy with City if the rumours of him leaving at the end of the season are to be believed.

I think this will be a tight final, Arsenal don’t often allow for games to be too open, but the longer it drags on the more it will suit City, as the majority of their players have been in this environment before - but the same can’t be said for most of the Arsenal squad.

Donnarumma was made for big occasions like this, with the keeper often operating at his best when in the limelight. We saw how effective he was for PSG in their run to win the Champions League last season, and I think he can step up in a similar manner here to do his bit as City look to win their fifth EFL Cup under Pep Guardiola.

Arsenal drew two saves from Donnarumma when the sides clashed earlier in the season in the Premier League, and Donnarumma has been forced into making 64 saves across his 27 starts in the Premier League this season (2.37 per 90). He’s maintained a save percentage of 72.7% across these matches, with this data telling us that Donnarumma is reliable in the brief moments where he is called into action.

Only the two Manchester sides are averaging more shots on target per game in the Premier League this season than Arsenal (5.00), suggesting that the Gunners have the appropriate firepower to test Donnarumma on at least two occasions.

Semenyo has been brilliant for Man City since making the move across from Bournemouth in January, with the 26-year-old netting seven goals across his 16 appearances since joining the club.

Semenyo has taken 68 shots across his 29 starts in the Premier League this season (2.36 per 90), seeing 36 of these attempts find the target (1.25 per 90). His shot on target record is incredibly consistent, and he can cause Arsenal issues again here on the biggest stage.

Only Erling Haaland has scored more non-penalty goals than Semenyo in the Premier League this season, he is one of the best goalscorers in the country at the moment and can be backed to have a single shot on target here at a generous price, given his record so far this term.

Semenyo has been one of the best players in the Premier League this season, netting 15 goals across his 29 starts - only Erling Haaland has scored more non-penalty goals than Semenyo in the Premier League this term.

As well as offering a real threat from open play, Semenyo can be quite reckless with his challenges. He’s picked up six yellow cards in the Premier League this season, though is yet to pick up his first caution for Man City in the top flight.

City are more aggressive when out of possession than they were last season, collecting 56 yellow cards to date - just one fewer than they managed across the entirety of last campaign, despite eight games of the season remaining. Semenyo has been operating centrally of late, setting up an interesting battle against Eberechi Eze.

Eze has won 30 fouls across his 17 starts in the Premier League this season (1.80 per 90) and can offer a threat to Semenyo when gliding through those central areas.

Eberechi Eze has been inconsistent at times for Arsenal this season, but usually delivers in these high profile games. He scored a wonderful goal against Leverkusen during the week to get Arsenal on their way to a 2-0 victory, managing three shots in the game overall.

Eze tends to be pretty speculative with his efforts, he’s taken 49 shots across his 17 starts in the Premier League this season (2.93 per 90), seeing 16 of these efforts find the target (0.96 per 90). 

Furthermore, Eze enjoys playing at Wembley. He scored in both the semi-final and the final of the FA Cup last season as Crystal Palace secured the trophy against Man City. He had 2+ shots in both of these games, once again showing how Eze tends to save his best performances for big matches.

Bernardo is a player I always gravitate towards for fouls in big games. He’s a player that Pep trusts unconditionally, and he’s an absolute terrier in games like this. Yes, he was ejected in midweek for his handball on the line against Real Madrid, but that won’t affect his inclusion here. He’s played the fifth highest amount of minutes for City this season in all comps.

Across all competitions, he’s averaged 1.38 fouls per 90. This is below the line we’re after, but he does tend to step things up in this department against tougher opposition. In 2025/26, he’s committed two or more fouls on 13 occasions, and it’s no coincidence which games they’ve come in.

He made two against United, Liverpool and Spurs. He made three and two in two games against Newcastle and he committed a whopping five against Chelsea. He’s also been carded 13 times in all competitions, by far the most of any City player. In fact, he’s having the worst disciplinary season of his entire career.

This is a selection I love as a bet, but hate the principle of. Gabriel has started to become somewhat notorious for how easy he hits the deck recently. We’ve all seen so many clips of him ‘drawing’ fouls from forwards recently, where he waits and waits then hurls himself to the floor, and it’s working.

He’s been fouled eight times in his last four games, and also drew three in the recent North London Derby win. He also drew a foul in the Premier League meeting on matchday five. He’s averaged 1.12 fouls drawn per 90.

He is often tasked with dealing specifically with Erling Haaland in these games, with the two having some very intense matchups previously. Haaland isn’t a serial fouler but 0.71 per 90 is solid in favour of this bet. Semenyo has often moved into central areas of late, and operated as a second striker. He has averaged 1.36 fouls per 90 too.