Football Tips Today

The home of betting with Andy Robson and his team of experts.

Andy's Saturday Accumulator 📈 @ 4.75

MK Dons have scored at least twice in each of their last four matches

MK Dons have recovered from a sluggish, and slightly unlucky, start to the campaign to win each of their last five matches and look much more like the side many thought would threaten the playoff spots at the start of the campaign.

Paul Warne has seen his side score at least twice in each of their last four matches, netting 4+ goals in two of the three home games during this run against Doncaster and Bromley.

Aaron Collins has been the main source of goals - netting 13 goals across just 12 starts which is at least three more than any other player in the division. MK Dons have only lost one of their seven games at home this term, netting 15 goals in the process (2.14 per game).

Burton have only managed to win two of their seven away assignments this season, and are likely to be the latest team to come undone against this confident MK Dons side.

The away side have notably only kept two clean sheets across their 14 matches in League One, with these shutouts being quite fortunate against Plymouth (2.52 xG) and Bradford (1.49 xG).

MK Dons v Burton
Tomorrow
15:00

These two sides played out one of the most memorable finales to a National League season last year, drawing 1-1 on the final day with both goals coming in added time to give York the title and automatic promotion by just two points - despite both sides clearing the 100 point mark.

Rochdale recovered well from that setback to earn promotion through the playoffs, and are looking to keep their place in the division with just three points separating them from the drop zone. We just need them to score here, which is something they’ve managed in six of their seven home matches.

They’ve avoided defeat in four of these games as well, netting 10 goals in total. York have settled in better to life in the EFL, but have crucially been really poor on the road - failing to win any of their seven matches and conceding 16 goals in the process (2.28 per game).

York have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their seven away matches this term, and the background surrounding this game should make it an entertaining watch. York are the better side, as shown by their league standing, but their away form acts as a leveller.

Rochdale v York
Tomorrow
15:00

Salford have been near flawless at home this season, winning six of their seven matches and conceding just four goals in the process.

The only side to beat them at home this season was Chesterfield right at the start of the campaign, with that defeat being in a period of adjustment for Salford as they lost their opening three matches of the campaign.

They’ve since recovered really well to win each of their last five matches in League Two, and have some impressive underlying numbers to match.

Only Barnet (28) have scored more goals than Salford (25) in League Two, with the home side here also boasting the fourth best defensive record and having the third highest share of the ball.

Northampton are hovering above the relegation zone in League Two, winning just one of their six away matches this term.

I struggle to see how their scoring power troubling Salford here, they’ve only scored five goals across these games and are the lowest scorers in the division overall with just nine goals - five of which have come from set pieces.

Northampton have also lost their last three matches ahead of this one, including a bruising 4-0 defeat in the FA Cup to York City as the away side.

Salford v Northampton
Tomorrow
15:00

Crewe are one of six sides in League Two who are yet to lose a game at home, with Lee Bell’s side netting 12 goals across their seven matches (1.71 per game).

Crewe have managed to score in 14 of their last 15 matches across all competitions, with only Exeter keeping them out. Crewe were the away side on that occasion, which is where their scoring power is weaker (5 goals across seven matches).

Newport have failed to keep a clean sheet across their last six matches, and are notably one of only four sides in League Two yet to win a game on the road - conceding 11 goals across their seven away assignments (1.57 per game).

Crewe scored twice against Newport in this fixture last season from an xG of 1.85. We only need them to score once here, which looks more than plausible given their superior scoring power at home and Newport’s issues on the road.

Crewe v Newport
Tomorrow
15:00

Andy Robson

Rob's Saturday Win Treble ⚽️ @ 3.85

I've won 4 of my last 5 bets

MK are in good form, winning each of their last three.

That includes scoring 10 in their last two home games, producing 4.62 xG combined in those games.

I’ve got to mention Aaron Collins, he netted six across those two home wins and he has 13 in 13 league games.

Burton are just one point behind MK in the table but expected points shows they have picked up five more points than they should have.

Their metrics are poor, especially away, where they average just 1.26 xG but 1.62 xGA.

MK have lost just one home game this season, whereas Burton have just two away wins.

MK Dons v Burton
Tomorrow
15:00

Salford haven’t tasted defeat in the league since the end of August and they’re on a run of eight straight league victories.

They’ve also been superb at home, winning six from seven.

Their underlying data is particularly strong at home, where they create an average of 1.70 xG and restrict their opponents to just 1.19.

Northampton are also quite stern defensively, but their major issue is creating chances and scoring goals.

The Cobblers have averaged just 1.18 xG in League Two this season.

As a result, they are the league’s lowest scorers with nine goals in 13 games and they’ve won just one of their last six in all competitions.

Salford v Northampton
Tomorrow
15:00

The tide has turned for The Cumbrians, with Rob Elliot winning the fans over and guiding them to eight games unbeaten in all comps, with seven wins and an impressive win over Salford in the FA Cup last week.

This had been coming, with Carlisle averaging the highest xG in the National League at 1.83 and sitting top of the expected points table, despite being 18 points behind Boreham Wood.

Boston have picked up a couple of wins but they did come against the bottom two in the division.

On the road, The Pilgrims have managed just eight points from 21 available and they average a huge 1.89 xGA.

Carlisle v Boston
Tomorrow
15:00

Rob Elder

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