Football Tips Today

Alexander Isak looks much more like the player that Liverpool thought they were getting last summer, leading Liverpool for goals (6), shots (20) and shots on target (9).

Isak has found the target at least once in all seven of his Premier League appearances this season, managing multiple shots on target in two of these games. 

He’s also notably had 3+ shots in five of these matches, suggesting that Liverpool are also providing Isak with much better service than they did last season. 

Isak ranks in the 96th percentile for shots on target when compared to other Premier League strikers, with the Swedish forward also ranking in the 93rd percentile for shots.

Only three Arsenal players have had more shots than Gabriel (9 - 1.13 per 90) in the Premier League this season, and one of those players is a doubt for this game.

Arsenal are expected to be without Saka, Tzolis and Madueke for this clash which decimates Arteta’s attacking options. I think we’ll see Arsenal lean more on their efficiency from set pieces as a role, with Gabriel being a regular target from corners and other set pieces.

Gabriel has had 2+ shots in each of his last two Premier League matches, scoring against Everton last time out. He’s had a shot in six of his eight Premier League appearances, which is a solid record for a centre back and shows just how often Arsenal look for the Brazilian from set pieces.

Gabriel had a shot in both league meetings with Liverpool last season, managing two shots when the sides met at the Emirates. He also maintained an average of 0.88 shots per 90 in the Premier League last season, ranking in the 94th percentile when compared to other centre backs in the division.

Liverpool have been way more aggressive when out of possession this season, and that’s directly linked to the style of Andoni Iraola.

Liverpool were far too passive when they were without the ball under Arne Slot last year, ranking 18th in the Premier League for fouls committed (10.08 per game).

That’s completely changed this season, with Liverpool averaging 13.75 fouls committed per game - only two sides in the Premier League have committed more, with Liverpool committing at least 11 fouls in every Premier League game.

Myles Lewis-Skelly is an obvious target to win fouls against Liverpool’s intense press. He’s won 12 fouls across his six matches in the Premier League (2.67 per 90), and maintained an average of 2.05 fouls won per 90 in the Premier League last season.

Arsenal have won more fouls than any other side in the Premier League (15.50), making this the perfect matchup for Lewis-Skelly to win a few fouls.

Liverpool have scored in each of their last five matches ahead of this clash, and look like they’re really coming together under Iraola - who has found a nice blend with Wirtz, Isak, Gakpo and Barcola.

Just looking at those names on paper, it’s hard to side against Liverpool finding the back of the net in most games. They’ve scored multiple goals in four of these games, and face off against an Arsenal side who are dealing with loads of injuries at the moment.

Up to six first team Arsenal players could be missing, including Saka, Calafiori, Saliba and Tzolis. There really isn’t a better time to play Arsenal, the absences of Saliba and Saka in particular will have an effect on Mikel Arteta’s side and can support an argument for Liverpool to get on the scoresheet. 

Building on Liverpool’s higher levels of aggression this season, leading to them committing way more fouls than they did last season, backing them to pick up 2+ cards looks like a decent angle here.

Only Aston Villa have drawn more cards from their opponents (3.25 per game) than Arsenal (3.13 per game), with Mikel Arteta’s side winning more fouls than any other side in the division (15.50 per game).

Liverpool have picked up 2+ cards in 75% of their Premier League matches this term, and this matchup looks like a really strong one for them to pick up at least two cautions again. 

Andoni Iraola’s side have picked up 17 yellow cards in total across their eight matches (2.25 per game). The referee for this clash is Andy Madley, who is averaging 4.0 cards per game in the Premier League this term. 

Racing Santander come into this clash against Real Madrid as massive underdogs at the weekend, but they will take some confidence from the fact they are unbeaten at home this season. In fact, all 11 of the points they have accrued in La Liga this season have come at the El Sardinero Stadium.

Sergio Canales has been a key reason for that. He is averaging 3.44 shots per 90 at home this term, landing this selection in four of his five starts overall. Once again, it’s a tough matchup for the newly-promoted side against Los Blancos, but they did score twice against Barcelona earlier in the campaign, which shows how they can cause problems in the final third even against top sides.

Declan Rice is averaging just 0.82 shots per 90 across all competitions this season, which is nothing to write home about, but he tends to record a shot in tougher matchups. Rice landed this bet against Chelsea back in September, while he also recently scored against Bayern Munich in the Champions League. The English midfielder also has a notable shot record against Liverpool - landing this bet in five out of six starts against the Reds as an Arsenal player.

The Gunners are looking a bit short on attacking options, which means there will be a greater responsibility on the shoulders of Rice in the final third at Anfield this weekend.

Bradley Barcola converted a vital penalty midweek, as Liverpool progressed past Chelsea in the EFL Cup. The Frenchman has really grown in confidence over the last few weeks, and Liverpool will be relying on him in the final third. Barcola is averaging 2.5 shots per 90 since joining Liverpool, with eight of his 18 attempts hitting the target. He bagged a hat-trick against LASK in the Champions League a few weeks ago, which shows just how devastating he can be.

Arsenal are a much tougher matchup, but they come into this clash after being dumped out of the EFL Cup by Fleetwood Town. That is certain to knock their confidence, so it seems like a good time for Liverpool to face the Gunners.

Goncalo Guedes is averaging 3.41 shots per 90 across all competitions this season, with ten efforts in his last three appearances alone. He found the back of the net against Malaga, and he has every reason to be looking forward to this matchup.

Real Sociedad went unbeaten in their four head-to-head matchups against Athletic Club last season in the Basque derby. Guedes started all four of those games, landed this selection in three of those, and he even managed to find the back of the net in both league meetings. That includes scoring the only goal for his side at the San Mames Stadium in the league last season.

Como have been really impressive in the early stages of the season.

That 4-1 win over Man Utd in the Champions League seems to have acted as an extra catalyst for Cesc Fabregas’ side - who have won both of their matches in Serie A since that victory.

Como have avoided defeat in all three of their home games this season, winning two of these matches and only conceding one goal. 

No side has conceded fewer goals than Como at home in Serie A this term, which is likely to be the point of difference between the sides.

Venezia sit rock bottom of Serie A having lost eight of their opening nine matches. The only side they’ve beaten was Napoli at home, which was a bit of a fluke result if you look at the underlying numbers.

Their away form is particularly alarming, losing all four of their matches on the road and conceding nine goals in the process. Como should be able to extend their winning run here, against the worst side in Serie A.

Trabzonspor are flying at the moment, winning each of their last six matches - including wins over Galatasaray and Besiktas.

This run has moved them a bit closer to the league leaders in Galatasaray, and that gap could close to three points if results go the way of the home side here.

Salah clearly finds this league too easy, he’s registered 11 goal contributions across his eight starts in the division and is unsurprisingly Trabzonspor’s top goalscorer.

Gaizentep have only won two of their nine games in the Turkish Super Lig this season, notably losing four of their last five matches ahead of this clash. 

I worry about their scoring power against Trabzonspor here, the home side have scored 13 more goals than their opponents and that is likely to be the main point of difference here. Trabzonspor have also only conceded one goal at home this season. 

Groningen have seen more goals per game than any other side in the Eredivisie this season (4.0 per game).

Their five home games have produced 22 goals (4.40 per game), with an exact split in the number of goals scored and conceded. They’ve only won two of these games too, suggesting that their style of play is entertaining but not that effective.

Sparta Rotterdam have seen 3+ goals in 90% of their matches in the Eredivisie this season, which is the joint highest tally in the division alongside their opponents here and Excelsior.

Sparta have only managed to win one of their four away games in the Eredivisie this season, but have still scored eight goals across these games. Unsurprisingly, Groningen have only kept one clean sheet this term - while Sparta are one of six sides in the Eredivisie yet to keep a single shutout.

Building on Liverpool’s higher levels of aggression this season, leading to them committing way more fouls than they did last season, backing them to pick up 2+ cards looks like a decent angle here.

Only Aston Villa have drawn more cards from their opponents (3.25 per game) than Arsenal (3.13 per game), with Mikel Arteta’s side winning more fouls than any other side in the division (15.50 per game).

Liverpool have picked up 2+ cards in 75% of their Premier League matches this term, and this matchup looks like a really strong one for them to pick up at least two cautions again. 

Andoni Iraola’s side have picked up 17 yellow cards in total across their eight matches (2.25 per game). The referee for this clash is Andy Madley, who is averaging 4.0 cards per game in the Premier League this term. 

Marseille are in good form, winning each of their last three League games with BTTS landing in the last two, and I expect this to continue today. They’ve been very impressive in front of goal, recording the highest goals scored per game averaged (2.3) across the whole league.

However, they’re susceptible at the back, which is why I think both teams will score here. They conceded an average of 1.6 goals per game and actually have the worst xG conceded in the whole league (18.5), despite only conceding 13 goals.

Toulouse are also strong in front of goal, averaging 1.5 goals scored per game, and actually have a higher xG than Marseille this season (15.0).

Toulouse have struggled against Marseille in recent meetings, failing to beat them since 2016, and I don’t expect this to change here.

Blackpool have struggled away from home, not winning on the road since August, so this should be a comfortable win for Wednesday.

Blackpool have seen BTTS in nine of their 13 games this season, and have the second worst xG conceded in the league, with 23.49 whilst conceding 20 goals. Despite this, their scoring record isn’t bad, scoring 16 goals from an xG of 14.63, and I think they can cause Wednesday some problems here.

Managerless Wednesday have conceded 13 goals from an xG of 18.88, which suggests they’re overperforming defensively, and this may come to catch them out. They are very strong in attack though, averaging 1.8 goals scored per game.

They saw BTTS in their last game against Cambridge, and caretaker manager Hamshaw's intense, attacking playstyle could see them with defensive gaps for Blackpool to exploit.

Young Boys are unbeaten in the league this season, including a 4-2 victory away from home against Zurich, and I can see this one ending in a similar way.

They’ve scored the most goals in the league with 35, averaging 3.2 goals scored per game, from an xG of 25.4, which is the highest in the division. However, they also average 1.6 goals conceded per game as well as an xG conceded of 16.4, explaining why eight of their 11 games have seen both teams score.

Zurich are also very strong in the BTTS market, seeing this land in 10 of their 11 league games. Both their goals scored and conceded look sustainable in comparison to their xG’s too. They have scored 20 goals from an xG of 16.4, whilst conceding 23 from an xG of 21.9.

Como have been really impressive in the early stages of the season.

That 4-1 win over Man Utd in the Champions League seems to have acted as an extra catalyst for Cesc Fabregas’ side - who have won both of their matches in Serie A since that victory.

Como have avoided defeat in all three of their home games this season, winning two of these matches and only conceding one goal. 

No side has conceded fewer goals than Como at home in Serie A this term, which is likely to be the point of difference between the sides.

Venezia sit rock bottom of Serie A having lost eight of their opening nine matches. The only side they’ve beaten was Napoli at home, which was a bit of a fluke result if you look at the underlying numbers.

Their away form is particularly alarming, losing all four of their matches on the road and conceding nine goals in the process. Como should be able to extend their winning run here, against the worst side in Serie A.

Groningen have seen more goals per game than any other side in the Eredivisie this season (4.0 per game).

Their five home games have produced 22 goals (4.40 per game), with an exact split in the number of goals scored and conceded. They’ve only won two of these games too, suggesting that their style of play is entertaining but not that effective.

Sparta Rotterdam have seen 3+ goals in 90% of their matches in the Eredivisie this season, which is the joint highest tally in the division alongside their opponents here and Excelsior.

Sparta have only managed to win one of their four away games in the Eredivisie this season, but have still scored eight goals across these games. Unsurprisingly, Groningen have only kept one clean sheet this term - while Sparta are one of six sides in the Eredivisie yet to keep a single shutout.

Sociedad come into this clash in better form, unbeaten in any of their last six games, and they have been entertaining to watch recently. This selection has landed in five of those six matches, and Sociedad have cleared this line on their own in four of those games. That includes a 5-2 win against Malaga in La Liga, and a 6-0 victory over Lillestrom in the Europa League.

Athletic Club haven’t been as expansive, but they came away with a 4-0 win last weekend over Getafe. That result will certainly boost their confidence heading into this clash, so they should be front-footed on home turf.

If the hosts are to get anything out of this match, and reverse their recent run of poor results in the Basque derby, they will need Alex Berenguer to be on top form. He has scored in his last two successive matches coming into this clash, so is one to keep an eye on.

Berenguer is averaging 2.03 shots per 90 in the league this season, but 38% of his efforts have hit the target. The 31-year-old tends to be efficient when chances come his way, and he is likely to be the designated penalty taker for Athletic Club this weekend, as well as being on free-kicks.

Sociedad enjoyed plenty of success in the Basque derby last season, and they remained unbeaten in all four matches against their rivals. It finished 1-1 at the San Mames in the league, and 3-2 in the reverse fixture. Sociedad then got past Athletic Club in the Copa Del Rey, winning 1-0 in both fixtures. La Reale racked up 24 corners across those four matches, averaging 6.0 corners per game.

This season, they are averaging 6.5 corners per game in the league, which shows how effective they have been at getting to the byline and creating chances. Sociedad have cleared this line in nine of their ten league matches this campaign.

On the opposite side, Orri Oskarsson is the danger man for Real Sociedad. The Iceland international found the back of the net against Levante last time out, finishing that game with seven shots. Prior to that, he managed four shots against Malaga, and his one shot on target found the back of the net. Oskarsson is averaging 3.59 shots per 90 across all competitions this season, which is one of the highest figures in the Sociedad squad.

Last season, Oskarsson made 20 league appearances, but just eight of those were starts. He recorded a total of 27 shots, and 19 of those hit the target - an impressive 70% accuracy.

Last season, head-to-head matchups between these sides were competitive. There were a total of 22 yellow cards and one red awarded in the four fixtures. Once again, another feisty affair is expected.

Yuri Berchiche started two of those matches, and he was booked in both of those. The 36-year-old is playing his ninth season at the San Mames, so he will be fired up for this derby. Berchiche has already picked up three yellow cards and one red in his seven league starts this season - he tends to be aggressive in his duels, and there should be plenty of defensive work for him to get through at the weekend.

Ernest Nuamah has been at his best at home this season, scoring all five of his goals there, including three in Ligue 1.

Lyon have also been much better at home, scoring 10 of their 13 goals there, averaging 2.5 goals per game.

Angers, meanwhile, have one of the weakest defences in Ligue 1. They've conceded 15 goals in eight games and are allowing an average of 16 shots per match.

Away from home, they've allowed at least 15 shots and six shots on target in each of their three games, and they recently conceded five against Brest.

That's definitely good news for Nuamah, who's averaging almost five shots and two shots on target per 90 minutes at home in Ligue 1.