Football Tips Today

Italy are finally starting to look like a serious footballing nation under Roberto Mancini, losing just one of their five matches in the Nations League and earning a 3-1 win over France last time out.

Mancini’s philosophy is something that the Italian national team has needed for some time. He’s sought to completely rebuild the image of the national team, and crucially has started trusting younger players - who were previously denied development pathways to the national team.

Despite their improvement, Italy have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their five matches - seeing BTTS in four of these games. Mancini has had to sacrifice some of the defensive rigidity many have come to associate with Italy for this improvement.

Belgium have only kept two clean sheets across their five Nations League matches, seeing BTTS in each of their last two matches against France and Türkiye. Their 2-0 win over Italy earlier in the campaign came despite Mancini’s side producing an xG of 1.70 from 21 shots - while Belgium generated an xG of 2.76 themselves from 19 efforts.

Türkiye are such a strange national team.

The idea of them seems to be so far removed from the actual performances you see on the pitch, which is why they’re almost always touted as ‘dark horses’ in major tournaments.

There’s clearly talent in the squad, most notably Arda Guler, but there is an obvious lack of tactical direction and an inability to be clinical - which is why they’ve lost all five of their matches in the Nations League.

They’ve only scored three goals across these games too, which is the main concern against a France side who have scored in all five of their Nations League matches and even put four past Belgium at home.

It’s not a full strength France side, but it doesn’t need to be to beat this Türkiye side. They are guaranteed to finish bottom, while France’s defeat to Italy last time out adds importance to this game as the race for the top two spots is still wide open.

Croatia put in a very strong display at Wembley during the week, narrowly losing 2-1 but putting in a better account of themselves than the 7-0 loss they suffered to England in the previous international break.

The likes of Kovacic, Vuskovic, Livakovic and Baturina give Croatia a solid spine of talented players which is more than good enough to see off opponents at the level of Czechia - but probably stops short of challenging the very elite sides in Europe.

Croatia’s run of form looks bad on paper, but I wouldn’t read too much into that. They played Spain and England twice across their last four matches, who are two of the very best sides in the world right now. Czechia will be a much more manageable opponent, as Croatia have already shown.

They beat Czechia 2-1 in the reverse fixture as the away side, generating an xG of 1.84 from 16 shots and limiting their opponents to just two shots on target.

They also took on Czechia as part of their World Cup qualifying campaign, winning 5-1 as the home side with an xG of 3.63.

Czechia have lost all five of their matches in this Nations League group, scoring just twice. They’ve conceded 12 goals in the process as well and are unlikely to have the quality to challenge this Croatia side - who are far more capable than their recent run of form suggests.

It’s hard to see how this is a low scoring game with the attacking talent on show, and lack of defensive structure from England in particular.

Centre back has long been a problem area for England, and this was highlighted against Croatia during the week with the duo of Burn and Quansah looking quite shaky throughout the game.

England will be more routinely punished for those mistakes by this Spain side, who have scored 2+ goals in all five of their Nations League matches and came away 3-2 winners at Wembley when the sides last met.

This has become a bit of a grudge match over recent years too, with each of the last five head to head clashes between the nations seeing 3+ goals - including the final of the 2024 European Championship, which Spain won 2-1.

England have seen 3+ goals in four of their five Nations League matches this term, with the exception of a 2-0 win over Czechia where England coasted to a victory after Czechia went down to 10 men early on.

Kane has been in great form for England in the Nations League.

Not only did he score in the first game of this international break against Croatia, but he’s also scored at least once in each of his last five Nations League games.

This leg landed in September’s meeting between the two nations, and he was unlucky not to get a second in that game after hitting the woodwork from the penalty spot.

Across the Nations League, he’s averaging 1.59 goals per 90 from 2.05 shots on target, which puts him in a good position to continue that form here.

Kane has been in great form for England in the Nations League.

Not only did he score in the first game of this international break against Croatia, but he’s also scored at least once in each of his last five Nations League games.

This leg landed in September’s meeting between the two nations, and he was unlucky not to get a second in that game after hitting the woodwork from the penalty spot.

Across the Nations League, he’s averaging 1.59 goals per 90 from 2.05 shots on target, which puts him in a good position to continue that form here.

Yamal is set to return to the Spain side tonight, with De La Fuente describing him as being in perfect condition.

Like Kane, Yamal also landed this in the last meeting between these sides and has managed five goal involvements in his four Nations League games.

He’s averaging 1.28 goals per 90 for Spain in this campaign, alongside 0.96 big chances created.

Looking at his last five games for Barcelona, he also has six goal involvements, four of which have come from assists.

Bellingham was fouled four times in the last meeting between England and Spain, and is England’s most fouled player across the Nations League, averaging 2.73 per 90.

He also averaged 2.48 fouls won per 90 at the World Cup, as well as 2.92 in La Liga this season, so his numbers make this leg look particularly strong.

Bellingham’s heatmap for England is interesting too.

He’s a player who covers a lot of ground, but seems to operate heavily down the left-hand side, which points towards Fabian Ruiz and Porro as potential opponents.

Fabian Ruiz committed a foul in their last meeting, whilst Porro committed two in Spain’s previous game against Czechia, also picking up a yellow card.

There’s no doubt that Yamal will be heavily involved tonight, which is one of the reasons I like him for fouls won.

He’s the most fouled player in the Barcelona squad this season (20), averaging 1.81 fouls won per 90.

He’s also been fouled 2+ times in five consecutive games across all competitions for Barcelona.

His likely opponent, Lewis Hall, should give him a competitive battle.

Hall committed a foul against Croatia on Thursday and averages 0.70 fouls committed per 90 for Newcastle.

However, he gets dribbled past 1.20 times per 90 in the Premier League, compared with Yamal’s 4.43 successful dribbles per 90 for Barcelona.

With Yamal likely to be the focal point of Spain’s attack, I think Hall could have his hands full.

Italy are finally starting to look like a serious footballing nation under Roberto Mancini, losing just one of their five matches in the Nations League and earning a 3-1 win over France last time out.

Mancini’s philosophy is something that the Italian national team has needed for some time. He’s sought to completely rebuild the image of the national team, and crucially has started trusting younger players - who were previously denied development pathways to the national team.

Despite their improvement, Italy have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their five matches - seeing BTTS in four of these games. Mancini has had to sacrifice some of the defensive rigidity many have come to associate with Italy for this improvement.

Belgium have only kept two clean sheets across their five Nations League matches, seeing BTTS in each of their last two matches against France and Türkiye. Their 2-0 win over Italy earlier in the campaign came despite Mancini’s side producing an xG of 1.70 from 21 shots - while Belgium generated an xG of 2.76 themselves from 19 efforts.

It’s hard to see how this is a low scoring game with the attacking talent on show, and lack of defensive structure from England in particular.

Centre back has long been a problem area for England, and this was highlighted against Croatia during the week with the duo of Burn and Quansah looking quite shaky throughout the game.

England will be more routinely punished for those mistakes by this Spain side, who have scored 2+ goals in all five of their Nations League matches and came away 3-2 winners at Wembley when the sides last met.

This has become a bit of a grudge match over recent years too, with each of the last five head to head clashes between the nations seeing 3+ goals - including the final of the 2024 European Championship, which Spain won 2-1.

England have seen 3+ goals in four of their five Nations League matches this term, with the exception of a 2-0 win over Czechia where England coasted to a victory after Czechia went down to 10 men early on.

Croatia have lost four of their five Nations League games, although they’ve only faced Spain and England during that run.

Their only win came against the Czech Republic, beating them 2-1 in a game where Croatia managed 16 shots.

The Czechs have lost all five games, conceding 12 goals and allowing an average of 19 shots per match.

Ivan Perišić, who has one goal and two assists in the competition, is back from suspension, while Czech captain Ladislav Krejčí is out after being sent off against Spain.

Croatia are clear favourites, but there’s a good case for BTTS too.

The hosts are yet to keep a single clean sheet and even conceded against the Czechs, who also managed to score away to Spain.

Despite losing to Italy last time out, France still looked dangerous going forward, with 18 shots and four big chances.

They’ve scored in every Nations League game so far, but have conceded in their last three.

Turkey managed 12 shots and two big chances against them in the first meeting.

Michael Olise has carried his excellent Bayern form into the national team, scoring five goals and providing two assists in the Nations League.

He’ll be up against a Turkey side that have lost all five games and have the 2nd-worst defensive record in League A, with 13 goals conceded.

Despite their poor results, Turkey are averaging 14.8 shots and 5.2 on target per game, while producing around 1.5 xG per match.

They might not be favourites to win, but Arda Güler is worth keeping an eye on, having managed nine shots on target in four games.

He scored against Belgium last time out and is one of Turkey’s biggest threats as they look to extend France’s run without a clean sheet.

Spain beat England 3-2 at Wembley in their first meeting, with 28 shots in total and six big chances for the visitors.

The Spaniards have won all five of their Nations League games, scoring at least twice in every match.

They’ve managed 17 shots on target across their two home games, although they’ve conceded in both.

England have looked dangerous going forward too, averaging 17.2 shots and 5.8 on target per game.

Harry Kane is the competition’s top scorer with seven goals, but England showed some defensive vulnerability against Croatia on Thursday, conceding once and allowing five shots on target.

Spain could also have Lamine Yamal and Mikel Oyarzabal back after both missed Thursday’s win over the Czech Republic.

Michael Olise scored again against Italy and is France’s top scorer in this Nations League, with five goals in five games.

He’s been in great form for Bayern too, scoring six Bundesliga goals and averaging 4.82 shots and 2.29 shots on target per 90 minutes.

Olise has done most of his scoring at home, with five of his six Bundesliga goals coming there, along with three goals in France’s two home games in the Nations League.

Turkey have lost all five of their Nations League games, conceding 13 goals and allowing an average of 14 shots, including 6.8 on target, per match.

They’ve conceded at least twice in each of their last four games, including three goals against Italy and another three against Belgium in their two away matches.

Olise set up the winner when France beat Turkey 1-0 last time they met, and now faces a defence that hasn’t kept a single clean sheet in the competition.

Spain and England were involved in a five-goal thriller at Wembley in the reverse fixture back in September, and chances were aplenty at both ends.

Now, the context of this game is slightly different.

Spain and England find themselves clear at the top of the group, with qualification to the play-offs already secured, so they are likely to play with even more attacking freedom this weekend.

Spain came away with a comfortable 2-0 win against Croatia last time out, which was the first time this selection has failed to land for them at the Nations League this season.

Prior to that, BTTS had landed in all four, and over 3.5 goals in three of those.

Similarly, this bet has also landed in four out of five Nations League games for England this campaign.

Ferran Torres was chosen to lead the line for Spain against Czechia last time out, and he accrued a total of three shots.

The striker has only started one other match in the Nations League, which was against England in round one, and he landed this bet with two shots, one of which hit the target.

Ferran Torres completed a move to PSG over the summer to play under Luis Enrique, but he hasn’t quite had the desired impact.

The 26-year-old has bagged six goals from his 14 appearances across all competitions, but he is averaging 3.52 shots per 90 in that time, with an eye-catching 64% of his attempts hitting the target.

Spain racked up 15 fouls against England in round one of the Nations League, and it was Jude Bellingham responsible for four of those infringements.

The Real Madrid man has drawn more free kicks than any other player in the England squad this season, landing this bet in all four of his starts.

Even at a domestic level, Bellingham is averaging 3.02 fouls drawn per 90 across all competitions, and he is currently the most-fouled player in the Spanish top-flight this term.

He has been adept at drawing contact, and he typically sees plenty of the ball in midfield areas.

Fermin Lopez will occupy a similar zone of the field as Bellingham on Sunday night, which naturally makes him a target for fouls.

Additionally, Elliot Anderson looks set to feature in midfield for the Three Lions.

The Man City man is averaging 3.4 fouls drawn per 90 in the Premier League this season, making this an optimal matchup to target Fermin.

The 23-year-old has been in exceptional form this season under Hansi Flick, with eight goals and seven assists under his belt from 15 appearances across all competitions, but his defensive work rate makes him even more valuable.

Fermin Lopez likes to track back and get stuck into duels, and he is averaging 2.05 fouls per 90 for Barcelona this season.

Michael Kayode could be in for a tough evening against Jérémy Doku, who returned to Belgium’s starting XI on Thursday and caused plenty of problems against Turkey.

Doku completed seven dribbles and won six fouls in that game, while Turkish right back Oğuz Aydın committed five fouls, more than anyone else on the pitch.

The Manchester City winger has been fouled 24 times in his last 10 appearances.

Kayode has already struggled against Doku in the Premier League, with the Belgian scoring in Manchester City’s 3-0 win over Brentford in May and drawing a foul from the Italian.

Kayode picked up eight yellow cards in 37 Premier League appearances for Brentford last season and has already been booked twice in 10 league games this campaign.

Lewis Hall will have his hands full against Lamine Yamal, who has won 20 fouls in 12 La Liga games this season.

Of the 31 fouls Yamal has won in his last 20 matches, 20 have come from left backs, exactly the position Hall plays.

Spain won 3-2 when the sides last met, with Nico O’Reilly playing at left back for England and picking up a yellow card in the 67th minute after fouling Yamal.

Referee Clément Turpin averages 3.3 yellow cards per game across his career, but showed six in his Nations League match between Greece and Germany.

Hall isn’t usually one to pick up cards, but he’ll be up against a player who has led La Liga in successful dribbles in each of the last two seasons.

France won 1-0 away to Turkey in September, and it wasn’t the most convincing victory, but they will benefit from home advantage here.

Les Bleus look the much stronger team on paper, even if Kylian Mbappe is doubtful to feature, and they will hope to press home their advantage here.

Turkey have really struggled against top sides in recent years.

In fact, they are currently rooted to the bottom of League A Group 1 of the Nations League with zero points from five matches.

They have conceded a total of 13 goals and scored just three.

That includes a 2-1 defeat against Belgium last time out.

Based on that, France should be confident of taking all three points.

France have had to contend without some key attacking players at the Nations League so far - Mbappe has only played once, while Ousmane Dembele was missed against Italy last time out.

In their absence, Michael Olise has really stepped up, and he has been the main attacking outlet for the French going forward.

The Bayern Munich man was on the scoresheet on Thursday night, and he also bagged a brace against Belgium before that, despite only coming off the bench for the final 30 minutes.

Olise is averaging 4.2 shots per 90 in the Nations League so far, with over half of his efforts hitting the target.

Merih Demiral will be without his regular centre back partner this weekend, as Ozan Kabak is suspended, and the Turkey captain could be in for a long night.

Demiral is averaging 1.4 fouls per 90 for his national side this season, and he has landed this selection in all four starts.

The 28-year-old plays his football for Al-Ahli in the Saudi Pro League, and he is averaging 1.07 fouls per 90 across all competitions this season.

Demiral likes to be aggressive in his play, and he will have plenty of duels to contest here against the France attackers.

If Turkey are to cause any problems for France going forward, Arda Guler will have to play a key role.

He scored the only goal for Turkey in their 2-1 loss against Belgium last time out, playing the full 90 in an advanced midfield position.

Guler was also fouled six times in that game, taking his average to 4.75 fouls drawn per 90 in the Nations League so far.

That is a notable increase on his figure of 2.3 fouls drawn per 90 across all competitions for Real Madrid this season, but Guler is the main man for his national side going forward.

He is their primary outlet and should have plenty of battles to contest in midfield here.

Harry Kane scored against Spain at Wembley to kick off England’s Nations League campaign, although that proved to be in vain as the Three Lions were beaten 3-2.

Kane has a 100% record for finding the back of the net in the Nations League this season, and he maintained that record against Croatia last time out by converting the winning penalty.

Even at a domestic level, Kane has been unstoppable this season.

He has scored 10 goals and supplied 11 assists in 15 appearances across all competitions for Bayern Munich, highlighting just how involved he is in the final third.

In the previous campaign, Kane bagged 61 goals in 51 games.

Fabian Ruiz accounted for just one of Spain’s 15 shots against England in the reverse fixture, and he didn’t land this selection, but the Spaniard does have a tendency to pop up in big games.

He was on the scoresheet for PSG against Barcelona in the Champions League, registering five shots with three on target.

Ruiz likes to get forward and make runs into the box from midfield, and he strikes the ball cleanly.

He is averaging 2.5 shots per 90 across all competitions for PSG this season, and 44% of those efforts have hit the target, which shows how adept he is at finding promising shooting opportunities in the box.

England are looking a bit light at centre back at the moment, with Marc Guehi and Ezri Konsa both missing out against Croatia last time out.

That meant Dan Burn started alongside Jarrell Quansah, and that partnership looks set to continue.

Burn committed two fouls in that game, meaning he has landed this bet in three of his last four starts in an England shirt.

The Newcastle centre back likes to be strong in his challenges, and get physical with opposing strikers.

He will have the tough task of trying to contain the Spanish frontline, and this looks like a difficult matchup for Burn.

Italy pulled off a shock against France last time out, as they won 3-1 to keep their hopes of finishing top of their group alive.

As it stands, they are above France on goal difference, but just one point above Belgium - a draw here will be enough for the Italians to qualify for the Nations League play-offs.

However, they are unlikely to sit deep and look to play for a goalless stalemate.

Italy’s games have been entertaining to watch so far, and BTTS has landed in four out of five matches overall.

The only miss came against Belgium in round one, but Italy racked up 21 shots with six on target, so were unfortunate in that regard.

Charles De Ketelaere was on the scoresheet for Belgium last time out, as he recorded two shots which both hit the target against Turkey.

He repeated that feat in the round one fixture against Italy as well, with two shots on target.

De Ketelaere is averaging 1.55 shots per 90 for Belgium in the Nations League so far, but impressively five of his six shots have hit the target.

He is typically deployed as the centre forward for his national side, given a much greater responsibility in the final third than he is at club level, which means when chances fall to his feet in the final third, they tend to be high-quality ones.

In addition to his contributions going forward, De Ketelaere is averaging 1.6 fouls drawn per 90 in the Nations League, which is amongst the highest in the Belgium squad.

He likes having the ball at his feet, which means those Italy centre backs will be called into action plenty of times.

Alessandro Bastoni, in particular, is the kind of defender who likes to step out of the backline to contest duels, and he fouled once against France last time out, which was worthy of a booking.

He has committed seven fouls in his four starts for Italy this campaign, underlining his aggression.

Davide Frattesi drew three fouls against Belgium in September, which was more than any other Italy player, and he only featured off the bench for the final 30 minutes.

The midfielder was also fouled three times against France last time out, taking his average to 3.05 fouls drawn per 90 for Italy at the Nations League so far.

Frattesi hasn’t quite been as adept at drawing contact for Lazio, but his average of 1.6 fouls drawn per 90 across all competitions is still impressively high.

He is adept at drawing contact, and Frattesi tends to hit the deck easily when he feels contact.