Football Tips Today

I think this is a really solid price for Dowman tonight. He really impressed in the last round against Ipswich, scoring twice in just 47 minutes and receiving the man of the match award. He also registered the most touches of any of Arsenal’s front four (50), as well as taking the joint-most shots in the game with three. 

He started that game in the number 10 position, however looking at his heat map, he tended to drift into his more natural right hand channel. He is set to start on that right-hand side tonight, with an injury to Saka, which I think will only benefit him. 

Fleetwood tend to play with a three-back formation, with a defensive midfielder sitting in front, and I expect them to play quite narrow and compact tonight, so I feel he could get more space in those wider channels to run at the defence.

Given this, he may get opportunities at goal from both inside and outside the box, if Fleetwood are tough to break down. I feel his technical ability works perfectly against a compact team, with his small intricate passing, touches and skills will cause the Fleetwood defence issues. Whilst he is also not afraid to shoot from distance, with one of his three shots against Ipswich coming from outside the box.

Myles Lewis-Skelly is one of the best players for drawing fouls in the Premier League, and I can see him being brought down a few times tonight. 

Whether he’s playing in midfield, or as a left-back, he is averaging 2.37 fouls won per 90, and has drawn at least one foul in each of his six Premier League games, with 2+ landing on four of these occasions. He also drew two fouls against Ipswich in the last round.

He is likely to start in midfield tonight, which makes him a much more appealing option. He is averaging 4.23 duels won per 90, whilst one of his likely opponents in that midfield battle is Fleetwood midfielder Harrison Neal, who is averaging a foul per 90 minutes in League Two. 

Fleetwood are a team who play with a very aggressive press, which has resulted in them receiving the third most cards in League Two this season. While I don’t see them being as aggressive tonight, their natural playstyle does produce plenty of duels, and if anyone on the Arsenal team is going to be brought down, I would expect it to be Lewis-Skelly.

I know that Fleetwood aren’t expected to cause Arsenal any problems here, but having Helm at 1.40 for a single shot seems big for me.

He has taken the most shots for Fleetwood this season, with 29, averaging 2.32 shots per 90. However, what stands out to me is the divide between his shots from outside the box compared to inside. 20 of his 29 shots this season have come from distance, predominantly from that right hand half space that he operates in.

When you look at Arsenal’s oppositions’ shot maps, a large amount of these do come from distance, due to their very strong defensive line, and I feel this could occur again tonight considering the difference in quality on display.

I’ve touched on Harrison Neal earlier in context of his battle with Lewis-Skelly, and I feel he is a really solid choice to commit a foul tonight.

He ranks third across the Fleetwood squad for fouls committed this season and averages 1.00 per 90. Neal plays as a sole defensive midfielder in this Fleetwood side, sitting directly in front of the defence, and loves a duel, averaging 5.54 duels won per 90 as well as 1.77 tackles, which is why I feel he could be heavily involved tonight.

Fleetwood’s formation allows for them to switch from an aggressive 3-1-4-2 to a compact 5-1-2-2, which is what I would imagine them to switch between tonight. This may mean Neal is left to deal with Arsenal’s quality in attack, especially in a transition. 

With very technical dribblers likely to start in Eze and Dowman, I think Neal could have his hands full tonight. Which leads me to look at him for committing fouls.

Lewis Ferguson has committed more fouls than any other Bologna player in Serie A this season (19 - 2.38 per 90) and is at a great price here to commit at least two fouls.

The Scot has committed a foul in all eight of his matches in the Italian top flight, committing multiple fouls in six of these games. He even committed 3+ fouls in four of these matches, sinning four times against Cagliari last time out.

AC Milan are winning 10.63 fouls per game in Serie A this season, and forced Bologna into committing 16 fouls in this fixture last season. Ferguson made three fouls in that game, struggling to deal with Loftus-Cheek and Modric in particular.

He’ll be up against Yunus Musah here, who has won eight fouls in Serie A this term - only two AC Milan players have won more fouls domestically than the American, who also averaged 2.57 fouls won per 90 for Atalanta last season.

I like the look of Calvin Miller to register at least one shot on target against Rangers on Wednesday night.

Miller has been one of Hearts’ most impressive performers during the early part of the season, with a respectable return of 7 goals in 20 appearances across all competitions.

He typically operates on the right wing and is always willing to cut inside and shoot, as shown by his superb strike to seal Hearts’ 2-0 win at Motherwell on Sunday.

Miller is now averaging 1.17 shots on target per game in the Scottish Premiership this season and has worked the opposition goalkeeper at least once in each of his last 5 outings, including away at Celtic. 

He’s also Hearts’ penalty taker and occasionally takes free kicks from shooting range, adding to the appeal of backing him to deliver an on-target effort against Rangers.

The South Korean playmaker is becoming an increasingly important figure in Rangers’ attack and looks to be improving with every game.

One notable aspect of Kim’s game is his willingness to try his luck, with the midfielder averaging a sizeable 4.44 shots per 90 across his opening eight Scottish Premiership appearances for Rangers.

A deeper dive into those figures shows that Kim has attempted at least 2 shots in each of the seven Scottish top-flight games he has started this term, firing off no fewer than 5 against St Johnstone last time out.

Hearts conceded 18 shots against Celtic and are giving up an average of just over 11 per game in the Scottish Premiership this season, so Kim looks well placed to get another two efforts away.

While I’m backing Rangers to win or draw on Wednesday night, I don’t expect either side to keep a clean sheet, which is why I’m also taking both teams to score.

Hearts are a much more attack-minded outfit than they were last season, with BTTS landing in 7 of their opening 10 Scottish Premiership games of the campaign.

A closer look shows both teams have scored in 6 of the Jam Tarts’ eight league matches, and 5 of those six games also broke the over 2.5 goal barrier.

The case for BTTS is strengthened by the fact that each team has obliged in 3 of Rangers’ five top-flight road trips this term, including their most recent away day, which was a 2-2 draw at Dundee. 

On top of all that, both teams have scored in each of Hearts’ last 3 European games at Tynecastle, adding to the appeal of backing goals at both ends again.

I’m keen to side with Rangers on the double chance when they travel to Tynecastle on Wednesday night.

The Light Blues are unbeaten in their last 10 matches across all competitions, winning an impressive nine of them. 

That run includes triumphs over Celtic both home and away, so Rangers will not be fazed by the prospect of facing Hearts in their own backyard.

The Jambos returned to winning ways with a 2-0 victory over Motherwell on Sunday, but they gave up a number of opportunities and lost both the shot count and xG battle at Fir Park.

That win came after Hearts were thrashed 7-1 by Celtic the weekend before last and then lost 2-0 away to Trabzonspor. 

Indeed, the Jambos have often come up short against more elite opposition this season, both at home and on the continent, and Rangers very much fall into that category.

What’s more, Hearts are playing their third game in six days, so Rangers should have fresher legs.

Gakpo has recovered from an injury which saw him miss the early weeks of October, starting the last two games for Liverpool and finding the target in both games against Villarreal and Brighton.

Gakpo had six shots against the Seagulls at the weekend, seeing two of those efforts find the target. No Liverpool player had more shots or touches in the opposition box (12) than Gakpo against Brighton, with Iraola’s use of the winger reminding me of his relationship with Semenyo at Bournemouth.

Gakpo has already had 33 touches in the opposition box across his five starts in the Premier League (6.33 per 90), leading to 16 shots (3.12 per 90). He does need to be more clinical with his efforts, given that three of these shots have found the target, but I expect that to level out the more he gets in these promising positions.

We got to see Marco Palestra for the third time in the Premier League from the bench against Tottenham last time out, with the Italian contesting five duels in his 25 minutes of action.

If I’m honest, I thought he looked a little off the pace of the Premier League - which is normal for players arriving from leagues that aren’t as fast paced or intense as the English top flight. I expect him to start here as Alonso attempts to build his fitness, setting him up against either Barcola or Gakpo.

Palestra committed 41 fouls across his 34 starts in Serie A for Cagliari last season (1.20 per 90) and he has the flexibility to play on either side of the pitch. Palestra is one to keep an eye on more generally for foul involvements as he gets more opportunities in this Chelsea side.

It’s hard to see how this is a low scoring game, I expect both sides to rotate but keep similar principles that we’ve seen from them in the Premier League.

Chelsea have seen 3+ goals in six of their eight Premier League matches, and saw nine goals in their EFL Cup clash against Leeds in the previous round - coming away 6-3 winners at Stamford Bridge.

Chelsea’s games are seeing an average of 4.00 goals per game, more than any other side in the Premier League. Liverpool have seen 3+ goals in four of their last five matches, and covered this line on their own against Tottenham in the previous round with a 3-1 win at Anfield.

I can’t see Chelsea tightening up at the back in time for this clash, and the expected rotation should lead to quite an open game with at least three goals. 

Chelsea’s loss against Tottenham over the weekend was a real wake up call for the Blues, who were pretty pathetic in defeat to Roberto De Zerbi’s side.

Xabi Alonso will have to travel to Anfield without Cole Palmer, following a recurrence of the discipline issues that have plagued Chelsea for a few seasons now. Palmer was sent off at Stamford Bridge, and was lucky to be the only one. 

Joao Pedro could also still be sidelined, taking away two of Chelsea's most important attacking players. Without that threat in the final third, Chelsea do look a bit rigid and uncreative with the structure behind Rogers, Palmer and Pedro.

Things are looking more positive each week for Liverpool under Iraola. I was impressed with their display against Brighton at the weekend, limiting one of the best attacking sides in the league to just one shot on target. 

That victory over the Seagulls represents Liverpool’s fourth straight win across all competitions. They’ll be more confident than Chelsea here, and it looks like Iraola is close to finding the right balance for the likes of Wirtz, Barcola and Isak - which looked near impossible just a few weeks ago. 

Man City surrendered their flawless start to the Premier League campaign at the weekend, as they were beaten 2-1 by Aston Villa. Over 2.5 goals has landed in each of the last seven matches for Enzo Maresca’s men, who have cleared this line on their own in five of those games. 

Brighton also tasted defeat at the weekend, but they put up a real fight at Anfield and were unfortunate not to find the back of the net given that they registered 17 shots worth 1.32 xG. The Seagulls also managed considerably more possession that Liverpool which shows how competitive they can be against top sides, and this midweek EFL Cup clash at the Etihad should be an even contest.

Expecting chances at both ends of the field, corners are naturally a market to target. Man City were left frustrated by Villa last time out, but they still managed seven corners, while the hosts contributed an additional four. This bet has also landed for Maresca’s men against PSG, with 13 corners, and Liverpool with 11 corners. This is expected to be another close affair. 

Meanwhile, Brighton are averaging 10.2 corners per game across all competitions this season, with 6.4 for, and 3.8 against. This line has comfortably cleared in matchups against Arsenal and Chelsea - there were 11 corners awarded in both of those respective matches.

Maresca has persisted with a high line this season, asking his centre backs to be aggressive in their duels in an attempt to win possession back quickly. Because of that, Ruben Dias has racked up some notable foul counts, including three infringements against Aston Villa last time out. 

Prior to that, he accounted for two fouls of Man City’s six fouls against AEK Athens in the Champions League, meaning he has recorded at least two fouls in five of last six starts. The only miss came against PSG, but Dias was replaced at halftime in that match. The Portuguese international will have the tough task of trying to contain Kostoulas, and that is a matchup to keep an eye on.

On the opposite side, Luka Vuskovic is another centre back who has been amongst the fouls this season. However, the Croatian international has been adept at drawing free-kicks. In fact, Vuskovic is averaging 1.21 fouls drawn per 90 this season across all competitions, which is impressively high for a centre back. He has been fouled in six of his last seven starts, and will now have to deal with Erling Haaland. 

The Norwegian international likes a physical contest, and he is averaging 0.95 fouls per 90 across all competitions this season. Man City racked up 17 infringements against Aston Villa at the weekend, and Brighton can be another frustrating side to face.

Charalampos Kostoulas has been rested in Brighton’s Conference League matches so far, but he did start in the last EFL Cup match against Old Trafford. The Greek international played a key role in that match as the Seagulls came from behind at Old Trafford to win - he bagged one goal, finishing the game with a total of four shots. 

Kostoulas has been in excellent form this season, and he is averaging 4.2 shots per 90. That includes taking four shots against Anfield at the weekend, with one of those hitting the target. He also found the back of the net against Arsenal back in September, which shows how he thrives in tougher matchups.

Sparta Rotterdam still haven't managed a single clean sheet this season, conceding in all 10 league games so far.

Their defence has been so poor that they've even conceded twice at home against PEC Zwolle and Willem II, two of the weakest attacks in the Eredivisie.

Their xGA of 2.14 doesn't look any better, especially when you consider they're giving away an average of 18 shots per game.

Fortuna have scored 11 goals in five away games, but they've also seen BTTS land in four of those five matches.

That's not a great sign for Fortuna's defence, especially as Sparta have already shown they can score against some of the league's best defences, including Ajax and PSV.

Sparta just can't seem to keep a clean sheet, but they've also scored seven goals in their last three games, making BTTS look like a great option here.

Bournemouth are enjoying their best attacking run of the season, scoring at least twice in each of their last four games.

They've picked up two big 3-0 wins against Manchester United and Milan, racking up 30 shots across those two games.

Aston Villa have been looking sharp too, scoring in their last nine games and coming off a big 2-1 win over Manchester City.

Ibrahim Mbaye has been involved in two goals in his last two games, giving him four goal contributions this season, despite rarely playing more than one half.

He's averaging 3.34 shots per 90 minutes and should get more minutes against Bournemouth.

BTTS looks even more promising when you consider that Bournemouth are averaging 22 shots per game at home, while Aston Villa have an away xGA of 1.66 per game in the Premier League.

Monza have scored in every Serie A game so far, with BTTS landing in seven of their eight matches.

Gustavo Varela has scored seven of Monza's 15 league goals, including three in his last two games.

Their attack has been pretty consistent, but it's their defence that's the real problem, conceding more than two goals per game on average.

They've conceded three or more in over half their games and are giving away an average of 5.3 shots on target.

This looks like another good game for BTTS, especially as Napoli have been struggling at the back too, conceding six goals in their last two home games.

Going forward, though, Napoli are averaging 16 shots per away game, and Scott McTominay is in great form, scoring twice in each of his last two games.

Inter came from behind at the weekend to beat Fiorentina, showing real resilience to score the equaliser and the winning goal in added time. 

They deserved that victory too, registering an xG of 3.15 from 33 shots and conceding just seven shots (0.24 xG).

Inter have won seven of their eight matches in Serie A this term, only dropping points against a very capable Roma side in a 2-2 draw. 

They’ve scored 23 goals across these games, which is really what sets them apart from the rest of the division - not many sides in Serie A, particularly those at the foot of the table, can match this scoring power.

They travel to take on a Venezia side who sit rock bottom of Serie A, having lost seven of their eight matches - with the exception of a very lucky home win over Napoli in which they conceded an xG of 2.36 and 10 shots on target.

Inter have won each of the last five head to head meetings between the sides, most recently beating Venezia 5-1 in the Coppa Italia last year with a very notable gap in the underlying numbers of that game (3.20 xG - 0.15).

Monza may have only won two of their eight games in Serie A this season, but they’ve found the back of the net in all of those matches - including games against Lazio and Inter.

Monza have scored 15 goals in total across their eight games in Serie A (1.87 per game), only five sides in the division have scored more goals than the home side here. They’ve even outscored Napoli (13) so far this term, with eight of these goals notably coming across their three home matches.

Napoli have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last four matches, conceding 3+ goals in three of these games. The appointment of Allegri looks more and more bizarre with each passing week, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see the players down tools on the coach soon.

Monza have one of the worst defences in Serie A, conceding more than two goals per game on average, and now they're up against Scott McTominay, who's in great form.

The Napoli midfielder has scored twice in each of his last two games and is one of the team's top players for shots, averaging 3.7 per 90 minutes.

Napoli are averaging 17 shots per away game in Serie A and have managed at least four shots on target in every game on the road so far.

Monza have struggled against stronger teams, losing 3-1 to Lazio and 4-1 to Inter Milan.

McTominay was one of Napoli's top scorers last season, and he looks well placed to keep his great run going against a Monza side that give away an average of 16 shots per game, even at home.

Brighton have been one of the most exciting sides to watch in the Premier League this term, and I wouldn’t be put off by the fact they’ve failed to score in their last two matches.

The Seagulls recorded an xG in excess of 1.0 in both games against Liverpool and Jablonec as well as taking at least 17 shots in both fixtures. 

Fabian Hurzeler has assembled a squad that is still capable of competing with the fitness demands of this level, despite having as many as nine first team players missing at the moment.

Man City have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last four matches, conceding against Ipswich and AEK Athens in this run. 

Maresca’s side have conceded an xG of 10.7, seven sides have posted a better xG against in the Premier League this term. He insists on playing with a high line that opposition sides are slowly working out. 

City should rotate as well here, given that they face Brighton again at the weekend - followed by a trip to Leipzig in the Champions League.

Brighton have scored more goals than any other side in the Premier League this term, and should have enough to get on the scoresheet here.

I’m always willing to look at opposition sides to pick up cards against Aston Villa.

They’ve been the most fouled side in the Premier League in each of the last two seasons, coinciding with Unai Emery’s impressive stint at the club. 

Villa are very patient in build up, and also keep the pitch quite narrow aside from their fullbacks. Their clever rotations in those central areas make them an excellent team when it comes to winning fouls and drawing cards.

Villa have drawn more cards from their opponents than any other side in the Premier League this season (3.25 per game), while Bournemouth sit third in the division for cautions (2.75 per game).

The tactical matchup here is perfect when looking to back the home side to pick up a few cards. EFL Cup matches can occasionally lack the intensity of league games, but Bournemouth still picked up two cards in their 4-0 win over Lincoln in the last round. 

I’m not that surprised that Sunderland are struggling this season, European football after just earning promotion was always going to be a tough task and it looks like Regis Le Bris simply doesn’t have the squad depth to compete on all fronts.

On the other hand, Brentford should be looking at this competition as a massive opportunity. The club has never won a major trophy, and the EFL Cup could provide an avenue to silverware as we saw with Newcastle a few seasons ago.

Brentford have only lost one of their opening eight Premier League matches, which was a defeat against Liverpool where they were reduced to 10 men, and all four of their away games in the Premier League have finished level.

Remarkably, across Brentford’s last 20 competitive matches - only three sides have managed to beat them, with these being the two Manchester clubs and that loss to Liverpool a few weeks ago.

Sunderland looked knackered in their 0-0 draw with Leeds over the weekend, and I think we’ll see Regis Le Bris forced to rotate just to protect his squad. They’ve only won one of their last six matches, against a second division Portuguese side.

Chelsea’s loss against Tottenham over the weekend was a real wake up call for the Blues, who were pretty pathetic in defeat to Roberto De Zerbi’s side.

Xabi Alonso will have to travel to Anfield without Cole Palmer, following a recurrence of the discipline issues that have plagued Chelsea for a few seasons now. Palmer was sent off at Stamford Bridge, and was lucky to be the only one. 

Joao Pedro could also still be sidelined, taking away two of Chelsea's most important attacking players. Without that threat in the final third, Chelsea do look a bit rigid and uncreative with the structure behind Rogers, Palmer and Pedro.

Things are looking more positive each week for Liverpool under Iraola. I was impressed with their display against Brighton at the weekend, limiting one of the best attacking sides in the league to just one shot on target. 

That victory over the Seagulls represents Liverpool’s fourth straight win across all competitions. They’ll be more confident than Chelsea here, and it looks like Iraola is close to finding the right balance for the likes of Wirtz, Barcola and Isak - which looked near impossible just a few weeks ago. 

I’m not convinced with the direction of either of these projects at the moment, with both London clubs opting for new managers in the summer.

Things have looked slightly better for Fulham in recent weeks with wins over Hull and Coventry, but it’ll take more than a few 1-0 victories against newly promoted sides to convince me that Arbeloa is capable at this level.

Pierre Sage has failed to gel with the Palace fanbase, and the Eagles enter this game having failed to win any of their last four - notably conceding 2+ goals in all of these matches.

Palace seem incapable of keeping a game tight right now, they’ve seen 2+ goals in 11 of their 12 matches this term with the exception of a 0-0 draw with Leeds - that still produced an xG of 2.37.

Four of Fulham’s five home games in the Premier League have seen at least two goals, it’s likely that we see a continuation of that trend here given how weak both sides are defensively at the moment - particularly Palace. 

Jesper Karlström has already picked up half as many yellow cards as he did in all of last season, despite playing just eight games.

All three yellow cards came after fouls he committed, and the midfielder is averaging at least one foul per game.

He could have a tough time dealing with Mandela Keita, who wins more fouls than anyone else at Parma and has the second-highest number for fouls won in Serie A.

Keita is averaging three fouls won per 90 minutes this season and has been fouled at least four times in each of Parma's last three home games.

When these teams last met in April, Karlström was booked for fouling Mandela Keita, the very same player he's likely to face again.

Davide Massa is another reason Karlström could find himself in trouble this Wednesday.

The referee has averaged 4.5 yellow cards per game across the last two Serie A seasons and doesn't need much of an excuse to reach for his pocket.

Kike Pérez has given away at least two fouls in each of his last five games, picking up two yellow cards along the way.

He leads Venezia in fouls committed, averaging 1.70 per 90 minutes in Serie A.

All three of his yellow cards this season have come against stronger teams: Napoli, Lazio and Milan.

Nicolò Barella could be one of the players he comes up against in midfield, and he's been fouled in six of his last seven games across all competitions.

He's involved in plenty of duels for Inter, averaging almost seven per game this season.

Luca Pairetto has averaged almost five yellow cards per game across the last two Serie A seasons and isn't afraid to book players, which isn't great news for Pérez.

Franco Mastantuano has found some form at Fiorentina on loan from Real Madrid. 

The move to the Spanish capital was probably a year or so too early for him, but there’s no doubting his talent. He’s a really strong dribbler, and that makes him a good player to watch to win fouls. 

Mastantuano has won more fouls than any other Fiorentina player this term (18 - 2.65 per 90), and also leads the squad for dribbles attempted (5.30 per 90) and dribbles past opponents (2.36 per 90).

He’s been fouled at least once in seven of his eight matches this term, drawing multiple fouls in six of these games - including being fouled 3+ times in four matches.

He started 11 games for Real Madrid in LaLiga last season, drawing 30 fouls across these matches (2.60 per 90). He also maintained promising dribble numbers that season (4.68 per 90), ranking in the 75th percentile for fouls won when compared to other wingers in the division.