Football Tips Today

This is as short as 1.52 elsewhere.

Bruno Fernandes has had three shots on target across 170 minutes in this season's Champions League, at 1.59 per 90.

Landing this bet in both matches, he had two in each match with Betfred Sub Switch, as Matheus Cunha came on for him and had one in the 2-0 defeat at Atletico Madrid, while he landed this bet in the first half of United's competition opener against Sabah.

Como have conceded four and five shots on target in their two UCL outings to date, and have not began the season well at the back - keeping just one clean sheet from nine.

Fernandes has had a shot on target in his last two games for United, and is averaging 3.29 shots per 90 in the Premier League, replicating those numbers will at the very least give us a good run for our money at a nice price.

Viking have shown real courage in their opening two Champions League fixtures this season, which have produced a total of ten goals. That includes a six-goal thriller against Bayern last time out, with the goals shared three apiece. The Norwegian side have shown that they can threaten stronger sides, and they will be confident of at least finding the back of the net. 

However, their main challenge will be keeping Villa at bay. Unai Emery’s men ran riot in their last European outing against Fenerbahce. The hosts racked up 20 shots worth 3.11 xG - Ederson finished the game with five saves in addition to conceding six goals, which shows just how effective Villa were going forward.

This selection has landed in all but one of Bayern Munich’s matches this season, with the exception of a 0-0 draw on the road against Schalke - where they generated an xG of 1.94 and had 52 touches in the opposition box without scoring.

Vincent Kompany’s side are also posting some really impressive underlying numbers, generating an xG of 20.9 in the Bundesliga across just six matches which has translated to 22 goals (3.66 per game). The next highest tally in the Bundesliga, is an xG of 14.0. 

Furthermore, this angle covers Bayern if they have a scenario like they did against Viking last time out in the Champions League where Bayern scored three goals but still failed to come away with all three points. 

The obvious concern here is Arsenal’s defensive record, but I’m willing to take that on at a ground where Bayern have won all four of their matches across the Bundesliga and the Champions League this term by an aggregate scoreline of 23-2. 

Betis have seen BTTS in both of their Champions League matches, with both games ending in Manuel Pellegrini’s side coming away 3-2 winners over Lille and Porto.

Their win over Porto last time out saw Betis register an xG of 1.68 from 17 shots. They’ve seen BTTS in each of their last four matches, including seeing seven goals in a 5-2 defeat to Barcelona over the weekend - where they still managed to record an xG of 1.24.

Feyenoord have also seen BTTS in both of their Champions League matches this season, losing 5-1 to Barcelona in their opening game before securing their first three points of the competition against Como with a 3-2 victory.

Feyenoord followed that 3-2 win with a seven goal thriller against Telstar over the weekend, coming out on the right side of the result in a game where they registered an xG of 3.81.

Real Madrid put on a classy performance over the weekend as they beat Sevilla 4-1 at home, which was notable for a superb goal from Kylian Mbappe who scored twice in the contest.

Madrid have had some small issues at the start of this campaign, but that’s mainly in comparison to Barcelona - who are the best team in Europe right now. 

They’ve won each of their last three matches ahead of this clash, and should have too much quality for a Leipzig that lost 6-1 to Bayern Munich at the Allianz Arena over the weekend. 

That result shows that while Leipzig are an entertaining and promising side, they still struggle against the elite teams on the continent and we should see that play out again here.

Como have scored six goals in their opening two Champions League fixtures, beating Leipzig 4-1 in round one before suffering a 3-2 defeat at Feyenoord. Both matches were entertaining to watch, and there is no reason to expect anything different midweek. BTTS has landed in five of Como’s seven league matches. 

Similarly, Man United have seen BTTS land in six of their ten matches across all competitions this season, and they played out a 1-1 draw at Elland Road at the weekend against Leeds. Both sides have plenty of firepower going forward, but they haven’t been too convincing defensively, which makes BTTS a target.

Both Como and Man United have been positive in their approach so far - they like to control possession and play on the front foot. Michael Carrick’s men are averaging 5.9 corners per game across all competitions. Interestingly, Como actually have an identical average. The Italian side saw 16 corners in their weekend match against Fiorentina, with five corners for and eleven against. 

There isn’t much to split these teams in terms of quality, but it’s Como who come in as slight favourites. With chances expected at both ends of the field, corners are a market to keep an eye on.

Nico Paz is undoubtedly Como’s biggest threat in the final third, and Man United will have to keep a close eye on him. The Argentine international recorded 35 shots from Como’s opening seven Serie A appearances, averaging 5.53 shots per 90. That includes four efforts against Fiorentina last time out, with two of those on target. In the Champions League, he has been just as active in the final third, landing this selection in both matches. 

Last season, Nico Paz accumulated 121 shots in Serie A, which was more than any other player. He is adept at finding space in the final, and doesn’t hesitate to pull the trigger when the space opens up. 17 of his 35 efforts in the league this campaign have come from outside the box.

Lisandro Martinez was withdrawn at half-time against Leeds at the weekend with a suspected injury, making him a doubt midweek. With Leny Yoro also suspended after being sent off against Atletico Madrid, Man United are looking a bit short at centre back. Ayden Heaven is likely to start, and he will have the tough task of trying to contain the Como front line. 

The centre back has committed five fouls in his three starts this season, including two infringements against Atletico Madrid last week. Heaven hasn’t featured regularly under Michael Carrick, but this is an opportunity for him to try and lock down a starting role. He will find duels against Anastasios Douvikas who is averaging 2.58 fouls drawn per 90 this season.

Harry Maguire is likely to partner Heaven at the back midweek, and he is averaging 1.41 shots per 90 across all competitions this season, which is impressively high for a centre back.

Maguire has landed this selection in six out of eight appearances this season, which speaks volumes of his aerial prowess. He managed one shot against Atletico Madrid last week, despite only coming on from the bench for the final ten minutes. Prior to that, Maguire accrued three shots against Spurs, with one on target.

The Englishman will be Man United’s primary threat from set-pieces, and Como aren’t the most physical side, so Maguire seems to have a physical advantage.

This is about as generous as you’ll get for Kane to have a few shots on target, he’s incredibly consistent with this metric and has started the season really well for Bayern Munich.

Kane has netted four goals across his five starts in the Bundesliga this season, taking 29 shots across these matches (5.87 per 90) and seeing nine of them find the target (1.82 per 90). 

That shot volume is what pulls me into this selection, there aren’t many strikers you’d back to hit the target at least twice from that sample size so regularly - or even get that many chances in a game. 

Kane also seems to go up an extra level in the Champions League, netting three goals across the two games so far from six shots on target (3.00 per 90). He maintained a similar record in the Champions League last season, averaging 2.17 shots on target per 90 across his 12 starts.

This is about as generous as you’ll get for Kane to have a few shots on target, he’s incredibly consistent with this metric and has started the season really well for Bayern Munich.

Kane has netted four goals across his five starts in the Bundesliga this season, taking 29 shots across these matches (5.87 per 90) and seeing nine of them find the target (1.82 per 90). 

That shot volume is what pulls me into this selection, there aren’t many strikers you’d back to hit the target at least twice from that sample size so regularly - or even get that many chances in a game. 

Kane also seems to go up an extra level in the Champions League, netting three goals across the two games so far from six shots on target (3.00 per 90). He maintained a similar record in the Champions League last season, averaging 2.17 shots on target per 90 across his 12 starts.

This selection has landed in all but one of Bayern Munich’s matches this season, with the exception of a 0-0 draw on the road against Schalke - where they generated an xG of 1.94 and had 52 touches in the opposition box without scoring.

Vincent Kompany’s side are also posting some really impressive underlying numbers, generating an xG of 20.9 in the Bundesliga across just six matches which has translated to 22 goals (3.66 per game). The next highest tally in the Bundesliga, is an xG of 14.0. 

Furthermore, this angle covers Bayern if they have a scenario like they did against Viking last time out in the Champions League where Bayern scored three goals but still failed to come away with all three points. 

The obvious concern here is Arsenal’s defensive record, but I’m willing to take that on at a ground where Bayern have won all four of their matches across the Bundesliga and the Champions League this term by an aggregate scoreline of 23-2. 

Ezri Konsa has had to fill in for William Saliba this season with the Frenchman picking up an injury at the start of the campaign. I was interested to see how this played out, with Saliba being such a crucial part of Arsenal’s defensive set up over the last few years - but Konsa has slotted in really well.

One of his best attributes is winning fouls. He’s a really intelligent player, and knows how to manage opposition strikers really well. He’s won 10 fouls across his five starts in the Premier League this season (1.95 per 90), a record that ranks Konsa within the 94th percentile for foul won when compared to other Premier League centre backs.

Furthermore, Konsa was fouled twice in Arsenal’s 1-0 win over Napoli on Matchday 1 of the Champions League final where he was in a real scrap with Rasmus Hojlund. Kane won’t be as clumsy as the Napoli forward, but he’s certainly capable of falling foul to Konsa’s intelligent movement. 

I do think we’ll see Arsenal have some joy in this game, and they may have to tap into a route that worked for them consistently last season in set pieces.

Arsenal won six corners in Naples on Matchday 1, and followed that tally with seven against Lille at the Emirates on Matchday 2. Bayern is obviously a step up in quality from those sides, but this is a really low line for Arsenal to cover.

Arteta’s side are averaging 5.00 corners per game in the Premier League this term, winning at least three corners in every competitive game this season.

Bayern conceded seven corners against Viking last time out, and even allowed Bodo Glimt to cover this line when they welcomed the Norwegian side to the Allianz Arena on Matchday 1.

Jacobo Ramon has been called for five fouls in his two Champions League appearances this season, which is the joint-most in the Como squad. That includes four infringements against Feyenoord last time out, which was worthy of a booking. The centre back was also carded against Fiorentina at the weekend. 

The Spaniard likes to be aggressive in his challenges and step out of the back line. He can at times be a bit rash, and he picked up 12 yellows and a red in 37 appearances across all competitions last season. Ramon was carded in 35% of his appearances. This is a tough matchup for Ramon - he will have to deal with the likes of Bryan Mbeumo, Marcus Rashford, and Bruno Fernandes.

Mbeumo has registered at least one shot on target in every appearance so far this season - he is the only Man United player to have managed that feat.

The Cameroon international is averaging 3.43 shots per 90 in the Premier League this campaign, which is one of the highest figures in the squad. Even more impressively, 42% of those efforts have hit the target. Mbeumo is the top scorer for his side, and Carrick will be relying on him in the final third again on Wednesday night. 

Como’s results have been strong this campaign, but they are still conceding an average of 14.4 shots per game, so Mbeumo should find chances.

Lucas Da Cunha offers an alternative route to goal for Como, operating in a defensive midfield role. The 25-year-old has taken 11 shots in Serie A this campaign, and nine of those have come from outside the box.

The other two came from the edge of the penalty area. It was a similar story last season - the majority of Lucas Da Cunha’s shots came from outside the box, and he managed six league goals with four from the penalty spot. 

Como tend to play with more confidence in the final third at the Giuseppe Sinigaglia Stadium, and there should be chances for them here. During spells of controlling possession, Lucas Da Cunha is one to target.

Not only has Ayden Heaven been a target for committing fouls, but the youngster has also been adept at drawing fouls. In fact, he has been fouled six times in his three starts this season, landing this bet against Brighton in the EFL Cup, and Hull in round one of the Premier League.

His average of 2.41 fouls drawn per 90 across all competitions is a notable increase on his numbers last season, but he has been a bit more shrewd so far, using his experience to buy soft free-kicks. Como racked up 18 fouls against Feyenoord in their last European outing, so this looks like a solid matchup to target Heaven.

Betis have seen BTTS in both of their Champions League matches, with both games ending in Manuel Pellegrini’s side coming away 3-2 winners over Lille and Porto.

Their win over Porto last time out saw Betis register an xG of 1.68 from 17 shots. They’ve seen BTTS in each of their last four matches, including seeing seven goals in a 5-2 defeat to Barcelona over the weekend - where they still managed to record an xG of 1.24.

Feyenoord have also seen BTTS in both of their Champions League matches this season, losing 5-1 to Barcelona in their opening game before securing their first three points of the competition against Como with a 3-2 victory.

Feyenoord followed that 3-2 win with a seven goal thriller against Telstar over the weekend, coming out on the right side of the result in a game where they registered an xG of 3.81.

Arsenal's defence has been impressive so far this season, but their biggest test yet will come against a Bayern side that have scored at least five goals in every home game. Bayern's attacking numbers are crazy, averaging 24 shots and 3.07 xG per game at the Allianz Arena.

Kane just keeps scoring and already has nine goals this season, including three in the Champions League. Arsenal can hurt teams too. They've scored four goals and taken 42 shots across their games against Lille and Napoli.

Bayern have conceded in four of their last five games, and that crazy 3-3 draw against Viking showed they're far from impossible to score against. Arsenal are averaging 1.89 xG away from home across the Premier League and Champions League, and they'll have their main attacking players available.

With so much attacking quality on both sides, we could be in for plenty of goals and both teams scoring on Wednesday.

Lille and Galatasaray have both conceded at least three goals in every Champions League game so far and while both defences have been struggling, they've also got attacks that rarely fail to score.

Lille have only failed to score once all season, away to Arsenal in the last round.They're even better at home and have already scored twice against strong sides like PSG and Betis.

Galatasaray are averaging 19 shots per game and even managed more attempts away to Sporting than the home side. The problem is that they've conceded at least three goals every time they've faced stronger opponents: four against Barcelona, three against Sporting and four against Salah's Trabzonspor in the Süper Lig.

Both teams also have top scorers averaging more than a goal per 90 minutes this season. With Giroud and Osimhen available and both defences looking so shaky, it's a great setup for BTTS.

Lisandro Martinez was withdrawn at half-time against Leeds at the weekend with a suspected injury, making him a doubt midweek. With Leny Yoro also suspended after being sent off against Atletico Madrid, Man United are looking a bit short at centre back. Ayden Heaven is likely to start, and he will have the tough task of trying to contain the Como front line. 

The centre back has committed five fouls in his three starts this season, including two infringements against Atletico Madrid last week. Heaven hasn’t featured regularly under Michael Carrick, but this is an opportunity for him to try and lock down a starting role. He will find duels against Anastasios Douvikas who is averaging 2.58 fouls drawn per 90 this season.

In addition to his output in the final third, Tripic is also averaging 2.54 fouls drawn per 90. He is the main outlet for Viking on that left wing, and Matty Cash is likely to have the tough task of trying to keep him quiet. Tripic usually sees plenty of the ball, which will bring Cash into the game often. 

The Polish international has recently returned from injury, and he has committed multiple infringements in all three starts since then. That includes three fouls against Newcastle last time out. Cash is much more comfortable going forward than he is at defending one-on-one, which bodes well for this selection.

Erik Botheim is another player to target for fouls midweek. The Viking striker is averaging 2.68 fouls per 90 across all competition in the last ten matches for his side, which is the highest figure in the squad. That includes three fouls against Fredrikstad at the weekend, which was enough to earn him a yellow card. 

The striker likes to be aggressive in his duels, and intense in his press up front. He has committed at least one foul in each of his last eleven successive appearances, despite three of those being off the bench. That includes one foul in round one of the Champions League, despite only playing for the final 28 minutes.

Ezri Konsa has had to fill in for William Saliba this season with the Frenchman picking up an injury at the start of the campaign. I was interested to see how this played out, with Saliba being such a crucial part of Arsenal’s defensive set up over the last few years - but Konsa has slotted in really well.

One of his best attributes is winning fouls. He’s a really intelligent player, and knows how to manage opposition strikers really well. He’s won 10 fouls across his five starts in the Premier League this season (1.95 per 90), a record that ranks Konsa within the 94th percentile for foul won when compared to other Premier League centre backs.

Furthermore, Konsa was fouled twice in Arsenal’s 1-0 win over Napoli on Matchday 1 of the Champions League final where he was in a real scrap with Rasmus Hojlund. Kane won’t be as clumsy as the Napoli forward, but he’s certainly capable of falling foul to Konsa’s intelligent movement. 

Betis have seen BTTS in both of their Champions League matches, with both games ending in Manuel Pellegrini’s side coming away 3-2 winners over Lille and Porto.

Their win over Porto last time out saw Betis register an xG of 1.68 from 17 shots. They’ve seen BTTS in each of their last four matches, including seeing seven goals in a 5-2 defeat to Barcelona over the weekend - where they still managed to record an xG of 1.24.

Feyenoord have also seen BTTS in both of their Champions League matches this season, losing 5-1 to Barcelona in their opening game before securing their first three points of the competition against Como with a 3-2 victory.

Feyenoord followed that 3-2 win with a seven goal thriller against Telstar over the weekend, coming out on the right side of the result in a game where they registered an xG of 3.81.

Real Madrid put on a classy performance over the weekend as they beat Sevilla 4-1 at home, which was notable for a superb goal from Kylian Mbappe who scored twice in the contest.

Madrid have had some small issues at the start of this campaign, but that’s mainly in comparison to Barcelona - who are the best team in Europe right now. 

They’ve won each of their last three matches ahead of this clash, and should have too much quality for a Leipzig that lost 6-1 to Bayern Munich at the Allianz Arena over the weekend. 

That result shows that while Leipzig are an entertaining and promising side, they still struggle against the elite teams on the continent and we should see that play out again here.

Joshua Kimmich has had a shot in both of his Champions League appearances so far this season and is a good option to test an Arsenal backline that will naturally drop quite deep at times here.

Kimmich is more known for his creative abilities, but all four of his shots in the Bundesliga have come from outside of the box this term (0.76 per 90).

Kimmich has had four shots in total in the Champions League (2.12 per 90), and will line up in midfield here alongside Aleksandar Pavlovic.

Kimmich is not a high volume shooter, but is consistent enough to get at least one shot away here.

He averaged 1.11 shots per 90 across 24 starts in the Bundesliga last season, showing consistency over a larger sample size.

Anis Hadj Moussa is on fire for Feyenoord at the moment, and will be their main threat against this Betis side.

The Algerian has taken 23 shots across just eight starts in the Eredivisie (2.93 per 90), scoring five goals in the process.

He’s been just as shot happy across his two games in the Champions League, taking seven shots across just two starts (3.91 per 90).

This could be a really big season for Hadj Moussa, he already attracted a bit of interest from some of the top clubs in Europe over the summer having registered 20 goal contributions across 40 appearances last season - averaging 2.71 shots per 90 in the Eredivisie and 2.32 shots per 90 in the Europa League. 

Antonio Nusa has long been a player that I’ve been waiting to see more from because of the talent he has, and it looks like a positive World Cup campaign has given him the confidence he needs to be a top winger.

Nusa has taken seven shots across his two starts in the Champions League this season (3.50 per 90), taking three shots against PSV last time out.

He’s also taken 13 shots across his six starts in the Bundesliga this term (2.51 per 90), recording six goal contributions across just six starts - underlining his confidence at the moment.

He’ll line up on the left, putting him up against Trent Alexander-Arnold who will struggle to deal with the pace and positioning of Nusa.

Real Madrid have been far too open in transition in the Champions League this season, conceding 21 shots v Inter and 14 shots v Roma.

Johan Manzambi scored the winning goal in Villa’s 1-0 victory at Newcastle, before being replaced after 70 minutes with a knock. The 20-year-old has downplayed the severity of his injury though, so there is a strong likelihood that he will be fit and available to start midweek. 

If there is even a chance he is ready, Unai Emery is likely to deploy Manzambi in his regular advanced midfield position. Since completing his move from Freiburg, Manzambi has hit the ground running for the Premier League side, scoring in three of his four starts. He is averaging 4.3 shots per 90 across all competitions for Villa, which shows just how involved he has been in the final third, and this is a favourable matchup for him against Viking.

Nicolas Jackson is another summer signing who has made a real difference at Villa Park. The former Chelsea man scored twice during Villa’s 6-0 victory over Fenerbahce in their last European outing. He has now scored five goals in eight starts for his new club.

Jackson has spoken highly of Unai Emery, as the two were both at Villarreal together, and the Spanish manager really knows how to get the most out of Jackson. The striker is playing with confidence again, and he looks a constant danger in the final third. After Ollie Watkins left Villa Park, there were concerns over where goals would come from, but Jackson has filled that void and he will hope to maintain his solid form against Viking here.

Joe Bell is the defensive midfielder for Viking, and this upcoming clash at Villa Park could be one of the toughest of his career. The New Zealand international was carded against Fredrikstad at the weekend, making it five bookings in his last eleven appearances across all competitions.

He is averaging 1.88 fouls per 90 in that time, which shows how willing he is to jump into tackles, and Bell will have plenty to do on Wednesday night. 

The 27-year-old had a difficult night on his Champions League debut, committing two fouls against Stuttgart before being replaced after 62 minutes. He also recorded three tackles in that match.

On the opposite side, Boubacar Kamara is one to keep an eye on defensively. He committed four fouls against Newcastle last time out, taking his averaging to 1.72 fouls per 90 across all competitions for Villa this season. In his ten appearances this season, Kamara has registered a total of 16 infringements, but he has so far been fortunate to escape a booking. 

Last season, Kamara made 18 Premier League appearances, and he was carded in five of those. He can be guilty of committing cynical fouls, and they could come into play against a side like Viking. The Norwegian side drew three yellows and a red from Bayern Munich last week, so they can be a frustrating side to face

Nicolo Tresoldi has scored four goals in his first two Champions League games, including a hat-trick away to Inter Milan, and it's not just the goals. He also leads Brugge in both shots and shots on target, averaging four attempts per 90 minutes.

Brugge have been creating plenty of chances too, with 18 shots against Inter and another 14 against Aston Villa in their opening game.

Lens have conceded in every Champions League and Ligue 1 game this season, allowing an average of five shots on target per match.

Tresoldi is also Brugge's first-choice penalty taker, giving him another chance to get on the scoresheet, especially as the Belgian side have had four penalties in their last six games.

Luis Diaz will come into this high profile Champions League clash with plenty of confidence having scored a hat trick against Leipzig at the weekend as Bayern Munich warmed up with a 6-1 win in the Bundesliga.

Diaz has an opportunity to be the main man again here, especially with Olise being suspended for this game having collected two yellow cards against Viking last time out in the Champions League.

Diaz scored in that 3-3 draw against Viking, and has been posting solid goal contribution numbers since joining Bayern from Liverpool. He registered 45 goal contributions across just 51 appearances for Bayern last season, which is a record that goes a bit under the radar when you have players like Olise and Kane around.

Bayern have scored 2+ goals in all but one of their matches this season, scoring 3+ goals in both of their Champions League games so far. This is an obvious step up in opponent, but it’s hard to make a case for any defence to keep this Bayern frontline quiet. 

Bayern Munich have only kept one clean sheet in their last five matches, despite avoiding defeat across these games.

They conceded three goals on the road against Viking in the last round of the Champions League, as well as shipping goals to the likes of Augsburg and Elversberg in recent weeks. 

Bayern clearly believe in their ability to outscore most teams, and I think they’ll employ a similar strategy here - offering Arsenal chances to get on the scoresheet.

Saka registered a goal and an assist in just 25 minutes against Lille in the Champions League last time out, taking his overall tally for the season to five goal contributions across 10 appearances.

Saka has taken more shots than any other Arsenal player this season, and is only second to Odegaard when it comes to creating chances. He’s a key part of the side, and I think he can hurt Bayern with the issues they’ve had at the back over recent weeks.

Laimer is a really versatile player, he’s expected to line up at left back here but could easily fill in on the opposite side - but both roles are likely to cause him issues against Madueke or Saka.

Madueke has been playing off the left wing quite often this season, notably scoring from that position against Forest last time out. 

It simplifies his game quite a bit, which is good for Madueke - I feel like he often takes too long to make decisions but playing on the same side as his strong foot means that that decision making is taken out a lot of the time for him. It's a smart move by Arteta to get the most out of him while keeping Saka on the pitch.

He’ll be confident going against Laimer, who has been cautioned in his last two matches for Bayern and collected four yellow cards across 10 starts in the Champions League last season. 

It’s even better if Laimer is tasked with handling Saka on the opposite flank, the winger has won 21 fouls across his seven starts in the Premier League this season (3.16 per 90).

I’m really interested in the battle between Kai Havertz and Tah, with Upamecano also being a direct opponent of Havertz here.

Havertz is such a clever player, he uses his body well to hold up the ball, but isn’t afraid to be overly physical. He picked up a card inside just 29 minutes of action against Lille last time out in the Champions League, and he can be the antagonist against Tah here again.

Havertz didn’t play that often in the Champions League last season, but did pick up one caution across his two starts. He also collected one yellow card across similarly limited minutes in the Premier League last season, with much of his campaign disrupted by injury and the arrival of Gyokeres.

With that being said, Viking benefit massively from their artificial home surface, which they won’t have midweek. The Norwegian side were comprehensively beaten in round one by Stuttgart. The German side recorded 17 shots and four big chances worth 2.18 xG, while the visitors managed just nine shots worth 0.63 xG in return. 

Viking are battling at near the summit of the Norway Eliteserien, but there is a significant gulf in quality between that level of football and the Premier League, and Aston Villa just seem to be finding their feet. They come into this match having beaten Newcastle 1-0 at St James’ Park at the weekend, after winning 6-0 against Fenerbahce in the Champions League.

Viking have shown real courage in their opening two Champions League fixtures this season, which have produced a total of ten goals. That includes a six-goal thriller against Bayern last time out, with the goals shared three apiece. The Norwegian side have shown that they can threaten stronger sides, and they will be confident of at least finding the back of the net. 

However, their main challenge will be keeping Villa at bay. Unai Emery’s men ran riot in their last European outing against Fenerbahce. The hosts racked up 20 shots worth 3.11 xG - Ederson finished the game with five saves in addition to conceding six goals, which shows just how effective Villa were going forward.

It was fitting that Zlatko Tripic was the one who scored Viking’s first Champions League goal - the 33-year-old has spent eight seasons at the club. He had three shots in that round one matchup against Stuttgart, of which one hit the target. He also played an important role in Viking’s draw with Bayern, providing two assists against the German heavyweights. 

Tripic is always involved in the final third, and he will have to play a massive role at Villa Park if his side are to get anything out of it. He is a natural goalscorer, recording double-digit goal counts in his last three full domestic seasons as a Viking player. He will be their primary threat in the final third.

In addition to his output in the final third, Tripic is also averaging 2.54 fouls drawn per 90. He is the main outlet for Viking on that left wing, and Matty Cash is likely to have the tough task of trying to keep him quiet. Tripic usually sees plenty of the ball, which will bring Cash into the game often. 

The Polish international has recently returned from injury, and he has committed multiple infringements in all three starts since then. That includes three fouls against Newcastle last time out. Cash is much more comfortable going forward than he is at defending one-on-one, which bodes well for this selection.

Erik Botheim is another player to target for fouls midweek. The Viking striker is averaging 2.68 fouls per 90 across all competition in the last ten matches for his side, which is the highest figure in the squad. That includes three fouls against Fredrikstad at the weekend, which was enough to earn him a yellow card. 

The striker likes to be aggressive in his duels, and intense in his press up front. He has committed at least one foul in each of his last eleven successive appearances, despite three of those being off the bench. That includes one foul in round one of the Champions League, despite only playing for the final 28 minutes.

This goes without saying really, this game stinks of goals.

Bayern are one of the best attacking teams in Europe, averaging 3.67 goals per game in the Bundesliga this season. At home, that rises to 6.0.

They’ve been just as prolific in the Champions League, averaging four goals per game. They can be vulnerable at the back, though, as we saw last week when Viking stuck three past them.

Arsenal have looked just as strong, scoring three against high-flying Lille last week, as well as finding the net away to Napoli in Matchday 1.

The last meeting between these sides finished 3-1 to Arsenal, with BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals landing. I’d be very surprised if tonight’s game didn’t end in a similar fashion.

Both Arsenal and Bayern’s games have produced decent card numbers in the Champions League this season.

Both of Arsenal’s games have seen three cards, with the Gunners picking up two against Lille last week.

Bayern and Viking both received two cards last week, while Bayern also drew two cards from Bodo/Glimt in Matchday 1.

Both teams also received 2+ cards in their meeting last year which only adds to the appeal.

Both sides have landed 4+ corners in every Champions League game this season. Their stats read:

Arsenal

• 6 Corners v Napoli

• 7 Corners v Lille

Bayern Munich

• 6 Corners v Bodo

• 15 Corners v Viking

In the league this season, Bayern’s home matches are averaging 12.34 total corners, while Arsenal’s away fixtures average 9.25.

Given how high-scoring I expect this game to be, I can see corners coming naturally. With both sides consistently landing this, I think this leg looks particularly solid.

Feyenoord averaged 15.5 fouls per game in the first two Champions League rounds, the second-highest figure in the competition, and now they're up against a Betis side that create plenty of chances at home.

Abde Ezzalzouli is Betis' most fouled player, averaging 1.71 fouls won per game, and he's been in great form as the team's top scorer.

Gjivai Zechiël has been playing on the right side of Feyenoord's midfield, which means he could find himself up against Abde.

The Dutch midfielder has committed at least one foul in each of his last four games for Feyenoord and picked up his second yellow card of the season in Feyenoord's last league game.

Referee Simone Sozza is another factor to consider, having shown 13 yellow cards and two reds in his three European club games this season.

Zechiël could be in for a tough night in the Champions League with Ezzalzouli playing so well and a referee who doesn't seem to let much go.

Vinicius Tobias will have the tough job of dealing with Federico Dimarco in the Champions League, and his record in European games is worth a look.

The Brazilian committed one foul and picked up a yellow card against PSV, then committed another two fouls against AEK.

He also picked up four yellow cards in last season's Conference League, so he's got a bit of a history of getting booked in European games.

Dimarco is likely to be playing down Tobias' side, and he's Inter's main man when it comes to crosses, averaging nine per 90 minutes.

Referee Harm Osmers isn't exactly shy about showing cards either, having handed out at least five yellows in each of his last five Europa League games.

With Tobias already picking up cards in European games and a referee who isn't afraid to show them, there's a good chance the Brazilian could get booked again.

Getting this Boosted to 20/1, up from 13/1, feels huge.

If you look at last Wednesday’s UCL 8pm fixtures, they did not disappoint. 13/14 teams landed 3+ Shots on Target, as well as 12/14 teams picking up at least one card.

If we look more specifically at the teams playing today, the stats look even stronger.

All 14 teams playing at 8pm tonight landed 3+ shots on target in Matchday 2, and we only need 2+ from each tonight.

In terms of cards, 12/14 teams also picked up at least one, with Sporting and Aston Villa the only exceptions after both recorded comfortable wins.

If last week is anything to go by, we could be in for another treat tonight. It might look like a bit of a punt on paper, but the stats behind it are seriously strong.