Football Tips Today

I don’t think there’s much need to say here.

Yamal has already recorded 17 goal involvements in just 11 league games this season, along with another seven across his four Champions League appearances.

He’s averaging 1.89 shots on target per 90 in the league and creating 1.49 big chances per game.

He’s been in great form, and I’d be very surprised if Ateltico were able to keep him quiet tonight.

Alvarez has had a slightly slower start to the season, but has still managed two goal involvements across his two starts for Atletico Madrid, as well as two in his four Champions League appearances.

His underlying numbers are still really strong too, averaging 1.91 shots on target per 90 and creating 2.73 chances per game.

What interests me most about Alvarez here though, is Barcelona’s defensive line. Flick continues to play a very high line, which has given opponents plenty of joy when getting balls in behind.

Alvarez is excellent at playing on the shoulder, but he’s also comfortable dropping deeper to link up play. With Kang-In Lee sitting behind him, he should have more freedom to focus on getting in behind and exploiting that space.

He also recorded three goal involvements across his five meetings with Barcelona last season, so I think he’ll be heavily involved again tonight.

Yamal has been fouled more times than anyone else in the Barcelona squad this season (18), averaging 1.79 fouls won per 90. He’s also been fouled 2+ times in four consecutive games across all competitions.

On Atletico’s left-hand side, we’re likely to see Alex Baena and Alex Grimaldo, who average 1.95 and 0.74 fouls committed per 90 respectively.

Given how important Yamal is to Barcelona’s attack, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Baena drop a little deeper to help double up on him alongside Grimaldo.

Baena has also committed the most fouls of any Atletico player this season, so this is definitely a battle worth keeping an eye on.

Similar to Yamal, Simeone has also been fouled more times than anyone else in the Atletico Madrid squad this season (14), averaging 1.63 fouls won per 90. He’s been brought down 2+ times in three of his last five games, landing 3+ on two occasions.

His battle with Joao Cancelo is definitely one to keep an eye on.

Cancelo has committed at least one foul in three of his last four league appearances, averaging 1.01 per 90. He’s also dribbled past 1.76 times per 90, which could work nicely in Simeone’s favour here.

Cancelo likes to get forward and showcase his attacking ability, particularly in Flick’s high-line system. That could leave plenty of space for Simeone to run into on the break and catch him out on the break.

There’s some decent history here too. Across his six appearances against Barcelona last season, Simeone was fouled at least once in five of them, including twice in three games.

Barcelona have been the most attack-minded side in the Spanish top flight so far, with 46 goals scored from just 11 games. By contrast, Atletico Madrid boast the strongest defensive statistics, but it seems unlikely that they will be unlikely to keep the Catalans at bay.

Barcelona’s high line has become a staple of their play - they make it so difficult for opponents to progress, but they can at times be caught in transition. Atletico Madrid have the tools to exploit space offered to them in behind, and they should play with confidence on home turf. After losing 2-0 against Bayern Munich midweek, Diego Simeone will demand a reaction from his side at the weekend, and this promises to be an open contest.

Raphinha is currently the top scorer in La Liga with a tally of 15 goals in just ten league appearances. He is three goals above Kylian Mbappe. The Brazilian international is in his prime, and he added another two goals against Aston Villa midweek, as Barcelona cruised to a 3-0 win at the Nou Camp.

Raphinha has 19 goals and three assists this season in just 13 matches across all competitions. Those numbers are incredible, and he has landed this selection in 11 of his 12 starts overall. The only miss came against PSG at the Parc-des-Princes, when Raphinha was substituted after 60 minutes. The 29-year-old scored in both starts against Atletico last season, so he should be looking forward to this matchup.

Atletico Madrid and Barcelona met six times last season - twice in La Liga, twice in the Champions League, and twice in the Copa Del Rey. Joao Cancelo started four of those matches, and he landed this selection every time. He even picked up a booking in the home leg of the Copa Del Rey.

The Portuguese international is much more confident going forward than he is at defending, and he will be up against Giuliano Simeone this weekend. The Argentine winger is averaging 1.68 fouls drawn per 90 across all competitions this season, which is one of the highest figures in the Atletico squad.

Ademola Lookman is likely to start on the opposite flank, and he should be looking forward to this matchup. The Nigerian international scored twice against Barcelona last season, and his pace in transition proved to be tough to handle. Lookman hasn’t been given too many opportunities to start this season by Diego Simeone, but this matchup seems to suit him well.

Lookman seems to thrive in tougher matchups when there is space to run in behind, and he even managed to get on the scoresheet against Real Madrid. He had an average of 3.1 shots per 90 across all competitions last season after joining Atletico, rising to 3.8 at the Metropolitano.

I fancy Fiorentina to score at least once against Juventus on Sunday night.

While Paolo Vanoli’s side started the weekend perched precariously above the relegation zone, they have had no issues finding the net this season.

That is underlined by the fact that the Viola have scored in 8 of their opening 10 Serie A matches of the campaign, including 4 of their five fixtures at home.

Across their last three games at the Franchi, they have scored against Napoli, Como and Atalanta, while they also made the net bulge away at Inter Milan.

As such, I think Fiorentina are more than capable of making their mark against a Juventus side facing a quick turnaround after Thursday night’s 2-1 Europa League win away at AZ.

Moreover, the Old Lady have failed to keep a clean sheet in 3 of their last four Serie A away games, conceding against the likes of Sassuolo, Cagliari and Genoa.

Juventus are a team I’ve regularly targeted in the corner markets this season, and I’m keen to back over 9.5 flag kicks when they visit Fiorentina on Sunday night.

Luciano Spalletti’s side have been the corner kings of Serie A this season, averaging a league-high 8.20 corners per game.

That can be attributed to the fact that Juventus’ matches are generating an average of 11.90 corners per game.

In fact, 7 of the visitors’ 10 Serie A games this season have produced at least 10 corners, with the Italian giants reaching double figures on their own in three of them.

As such, I think Juventus are more than capable of doing most of the heavy lifting here, although Fiorentina should contribute too, having averaged 4.90 corners per game this term.

Even more encouraging is the fact that the Viola have racked up 11 corners against Como and 8 against Atalanta across their last two home matches.

Back Nick Woltemade to be fouled at least once on Sunday night.

Woltemade’s towering frame makes him an awkward customer for opposition defences to deal with, which naturally sees him draw contact and win fouls.

Case in point was Juventus’ win over Napoli last weekend, when the German forward was brought down on no fewer than 5 occasions.

That was no one-off, as Woltemade has drawn an average of 3.36 fouls per game in Serie A this season and earned his side three set pieces during his last away start at Lecce.

On top of that, Woltemade has been fouled in each of Juventus’ four Europa League matches this season, winning 2+ free kicks in three of those contests.

He is likely to be drawn into plenty of physical duels with Fiorentina centre-backs Vieri and Radu Dragusin.

Both defenders have been regulars on the referee’s radar in Serie A this season, committing averages of 1.39 and 1.10 fouls per 90 respectively.

I’m keen to back Alieu Njie to attempt at least two shots on Sunday night.

The pacey Fiorentina winger likes to get efforts away whenever openings present themselves, which is reflected in his average of 2.29 shots per game in Serie A this season.

A closer look shows the Swede has had at least 2 attempts in each of Fiorentina’s last three home games, against Napoli, Atalanta and Como, firing off 4 shots against the latter.

He is also likely to come into this clash full of confidence, having scored and provided an assist in each of Fiorentina’s last two Serie A matches.

Juventus could be heavy-legged after their Europa League exertions on Thursday night, so Njie should have opportunities to pull the trigger at least twice when the Turin giants come to town.

Both of these sides were probably hoping for a slightly more appealing opponent to make the most of the benefits which come with getting to this stage of the FA Cup - but it has presented a massive opportunity for both to get into the second round and almost certainly secure that level of opponent.

Berkhamsted saw this selection land in the final round of qualifying against Southend, causing one of the upsets of the round by winning 2-1 at Roots Hall.

We don’t have loads of data for the underlying numbers, but Berkhamsted’s record on the road in the Southern Premier Division would suggest that their away matches are where we are likely to see goals. Berkhamsted have seen 24 goals across their eight away matches in the league (3.0 per game).

Plymouth Parkway have seen this selection land in each of their last two matches ahead of this massive cup tie, and compete in the same division as Berkhamsted. They’ve scored 19 goals across their seven home matches (2.71 per game) - winning all seven, so backing them for the result may also be an angle here.

Leander Alvheim is Kristiansund’s top scorer with 12 goals in 23 Eliteserien games, putting him among the league’s top five scorers.

He’s been on a great run lately, scoring seven goals in his last nine games and averaging 3.8 shots per match.

In his last league game, against KFUM, Alvheim scored once and had an impressive ten shots

Vålerenga, meanwhile, concede an average of two goals per away game and allow 15.6 shots per match on the road.

The game was supposed to take place on Saturday, but got pushed back to Monday after an illness outbreak hit Vålerenga’s squad.

Alvheim scored against them earlier this season, and with no one quite sure which of Vålerenga’s regular starters will be available, there’s even more reason to fancy him finding the net again.