Football Tips Today

Harvey Barnes has been Newcastle’s most consistent performer this season and has registered four goal contributions across his eight starts in the Premier League.

Barnes has long been waiting for an opportunity to be the main attacking threat at Newcastle having existed in the shadows of Anthony Gordon for quite a few seasons.

Three of his four goal contributions have come at St James’ Park this season, with a few assists in Newcastle’s win over Hull and scoring against Bournemouth as the Magpies were held to a point.

I’d expect Barnes to be an important player again for Newcastle here, he’s at his best when playing at St James’ Park and Everton have failed to keep a clean sheet across their last four matches - conceding 2+ goals in three of these games.

It was insane that Everton even considered letting Harrison Armstrong go to Nottm Forest over the summer window, and his early performances this season show exactly why he’s so highly rated by the Everton fan base.

Armstrong has committed more fouls than any other Everton player this season (10 - 1.29 per 90). They’re not as aggressive as you’d expect, but I can see the midfield battle getting quite intense here with Armstrong set to face off against Willock, Joelinton and Gonzalez.

It’s Joelinton that I can see Armstrong getting into a real tangle with here. The Brazilian has a physical advantage over both Garner and Armstrong in the middle of the park, and will be supported by the foul winning ability of Willock - who has won nine fouls so far this season (1.69 per 90).

Yoane Wissa is quite a clumsy player and can be careless with his challenges as a result.

He’s committed the second most fouls of any Newcastle player this season (13 - 1.88 per 90), and has a very favourable matchup here against the most fouled centre back in the Premier League this season.

Tarkowski is the centre back in Everton’s duo who is tasked with managing the majority of the physical duels. He’s also quite comfortable with the ball at his feet, which has long been an underrated part of Tarkowski's game.

Wissa has committed at least one foul in all four of Newcastle’s home games this season, committing multiple fouls in two of these matches. I think the matchup against Tarkowski is one to keep an eye on here, both should be watched for foul involvements.

There’s a lot to like about Tyrique George, and he should get a consistent run in the Everton side due to the off field issues currently affecting Jack Grealish.

George has taken 11 shots across his five starts in the Premier League this term (2.15 per 90), scoring one goal in the process - which was an excellent strike against Man Utd a few weeks ago.

George has only seen two of these efforts find the target, but he’s a much better finisher than this record would suggest. He only played 353 minutes in the Premier League last season, yet managed 10 shots (2.55 per 90) and five shots on target (1.27 per 90).

George should also be able to play on his favoured left side here, with that role previously being reserved for Grealish. Newcastle are conceding 5.13 shots on target per game in the Premier League, and there’s decent evidence to suggest that George could find the target here.

Thierno Barry is developing quite well and leads Everton for shots (27), shots on target (12) and goals (3).

He’s had a shot on target in seven of his eight Premier League appearances, with the exception of Everton’s clash against Man Utd - where he really should have found the target from the four shots he had.

Barry has had multiple shots on target in three of these games, and has had double the number of shots on target of any Everton player.

Only Marcus Tavernier (13) and Erling Haaland (16) have had more shots on target than Barry in the Premier League this season, and both of those players have played an extra game.

Only three sides in the Premier League have conceded more shots on target than Newcastle (5.13 per game), so we can expect Barry to get chances here and extend what is a really impressive record.

These are two of the worst defences in Serie A.

Sassuolo have conceded more goals than any other side in the division (2.44 per game), with only Monza (4.10 goals per game), seeing a higher overall average for goals in the Italian top flight this term.

Fiorentina aren’t much better at the back, only Monza and their opponents here have conceded more goals than the away side who have seen BTTS in 78% of their matches in Serie A.

Sassuolo have seen BTTS in 89% of their games, setting this one up nicely for goals at both ends. There has been a general increase in goals in Serie A too, 13 of the 20 sides are seeing 3.0 goals per game or higher.

Both of these sides have utilised corners and set pieces more widely as an avenue to goal this season.

Only Chelsea (11.25) have seen more corners per game in the Premier League this term than Everton (10.88).

Only Hull (6.63) have conceded more corners per game than David Moyes’ side (6.00), who instructs his side to stay quite narrow when out of possession - encouraging opposition sides to use the wide channels as their main avenue of attack.

Newcastle are seeing an average of 10.00 corners per game in the Premier League, only six sides have had a higher corner count in their league matches this term.

Again, they have an issue when it comes to conceding corners with only Chelsea, Everton and Hull giving away more corners than Matthias Jaissle’s side.

Thierno Barry is developing quite well and leads Everton for shots (27), shots on target (12) and goals (3).

He’s had a shot on target in seven of his eight Premier League appearances, with the exception of Everton’s clash against Man Utd - where he really should have found the target from the four shots he had.

Barry has had multiple shots on target in three of these games, and has had double the number of shots on target of any Everton player.

Only Marcus Tavernier (13) and Erling Haaland (16) have had more shots on target than Barry in the Premier League this season, and both of those players have played an extra game.

Only three sides in the Premier League have conceded more shots on target than Newcastle (5.13 per game), so we can expect Barry to get chances here and extend what is a really impressive record.

Both of these sides have utilised corners and set pieces more widely as an avenue to goal this season.

Only Chelsea (11.25) have seen more corners per game in the Premier League this term than Everton (10.88).

Only Hull (6.63) have conceded more corners per game than David Moyes’ side (6.00), who instructs his side to stay quite narrow when out of possession - encouraging opposition sides to use the wide channels as their main avenue of attack.

Newcastle are seeing an average of 10.00 corners per game in the Premier League, only six sides have had a higher corner count in their league matches this term.

Again, they have an issue when it comes to conceding corners with only Chelsea, Everton and Hull giving away more corners than Matthias Jaissle’s side.

I’ve been impressed with Lukas Hornicek so far this season, he’s only kept two clean sheets but has been the busiest keeper in the Premier League - making 27 saves across his eight matches.

Hornicek has been forced into making 3+ saves in six of these games, including making four stops against Palace last time out. He’s made 2+ saves in every game, which is the sign of a keeper that is being overworked and not protected enough by his back line.

Newcastle are conceding 5.13 shots on target per game in the Premier League this season, only three sides in the division are conceding more efforts on their goal.

No Everton player has won more fouls than James Tarkowski in the Premier League this season, despite the Toffees having the likes of Grealish and Dewsbury-Hall in the squad.

He’s been fouled at least once in six of his eight Premier League matches, with the exception of clashes against Man Utd and Tottenham. No centre back in the Premier League has won more fouls than Tarkowski, who usually finds a way to win battles against opposition centre backs.

He’ll be up against Yoanne Wissa here, who has committed the second most fouls of any Newcastle player in the Premier League (1.88 per 90). Wissa has committed at least one foul in all four of Newcastle’s home matches, committing multiple fouls in two of these games.

These are two of the worst defences in Serie A.

Sassuolo have conceded more goals than any other side in the division (2.44 per game), with only Monza (4.10 goals per game), seeing a higher overall average for goals in the Italian top flight this term.

Fiorentina aren’t much better at the back, only Monza and their opponents here have conceded more goals than the away side who have seen BTTS in 78% of their matches in Serie A.

Sassuolo have seen BTTS in 89% of their games, setting this one up nicely for goals at both ends. There has been a general increase in goals in Serie A too, 13 of the 20 sides are seeing 3.0 goals per game or higher.

Both teams have scored in eight of Deportivo La Coruña's ten LaLiga games this season, and they still haven't managed to keep a clean sheet.

At home, they're averaging almost five shots on target per game and have shown they can cause problems for teams near the top, including when they held Betis to a draw.

Osasuna, meanwhile, have one of the worst defences in the league, conceding 20 goals in ten games.

Away from home, they've conceded 17 goals in just five games, averaging 3.4 per match, while also allowing 1.87 xGA per game.

Despite their defensive problems, Osasuna have scored six goals in five away games and have one of LaLiga's top scorers in Ante Budimir, who's already scored seven goals in ten matches.

The Croatian has scored four of those goals away from home, including two against Alavés and one against Betis.

Red Bull Bragantino are second in the Brasileirão for shots per game this season, averaging 17 per match.

That number goes up to more than 19 at home, where they're also averaging 2.05 xG per match.

They've also been impressive in their last two home games, scoring four against Cruzeiro and three against Chapecoense, with 23 shots and 11 on target against the latter.

Santos, meanwhile, have scored in 15 of their 16 away games and recently showed their attacking quality by scoring twice against Flamengo, who have one of the best defences in the league.

The problem is that Santos are conceding an average of 1.63 goals per away game, with both teams scoring in 81% of those matches, including their last five away games in the Brasileirão.

They've scored ten goals across those five games and they've also got Gabigol, the league's third-highest scorer with 15 goals.

Nikola Krstović is one of Serie A's top scorers this season, with six goals in nine games, including five at home.

He's been in great form lately, with five goals and two assists in his last four league games, averaging 4.5 shots and two shots on target per match during that run.

Atalanta have also been much better at home, scoring 11 goals in five games, an average of 2.2 per match.

Parma have lost all four of their away games this season, conceding at least twice in every single one.

They've been giving up plenty of chances too, allowing an average of 22.5 shots and six shots on target per away game.

That's definitely good news for Krstović, who also scored when Atalanta beat Parma 4-0 back in January.

Building on the obvious weakness of Barcelona at the back, Aston Villa have enough quality in forward areas to get on the scoresheet.

It would be a real shock if Barcelona didn’t manage to get on the scoresheet here, they’ve scored in each of their last 16 competitive matches - including every game this season.

So we’re mainly looking at Villa to score here, with Jackson and Manzambi being their main threats. Unai Emery’s side have scored at least three goals in every Champions League game so far.

This is an obvious step up in quality from those opponents, but I can’t get away from Barcelona’s risky style of play here which will inevitably lead to Villa getting decent chances in front of goal.

Barcelona have seen BTTS in each of their last five matches, including conceding goals to Deportivo La Coruna and Galatasaray. They also have seen BTTS in all three of their Champions League games.

Bayern have seen this selection land in each of their last 10 matches across all competitions, including all three of their Champions League games against Arsenal, Viking and Bodo Glimt.

Bayern have covered this line on their own in two of those games, and have also notably failed to keep a clean sheet across their last seven matches. That recent record would suggest that Atletico can contribute to the goal tally here in what should be an end to end and entertaining match.

Atletico’s recent matches have admittedly been a lot tighter, but their last two Champions League games have seen a red card produced in the second half - massively affecting the gamestate. They did see 3+ goals on Matchday 1, losing 2-1 to Liverpool at Anfield.

It’s hard to see how Atletico can get any success here by just being defensive solid. They have to offer an attacking threat to match the scoring power of Bayern, who have seen 3+ goals in 88% of their Bundesliga matches and 100% of their Champions League matches.

Villarreal look just a little off the level of the Champions League, which was evident in their last outing in the competition as they conceded four goals to Liverpool at Anfield.

They’ve conceded in all three of their Champions League matches, conceding 2+ goals in two of these games against Dortmund and Liverpool.

They conceded an xG of 1.70 against Napoli in the one game where this selection didn’t land, and a side with the attacking quality of PSG will be able to punish their defence more than the Italian side did.

PSG have scored at least four goals in every Champions League game so far, including clashes against Barcelona and Man City.

They’ve scored 2+ goals in each of their last seven matches, and Luis Enrique will see this as an opportunity to secure PSG’s spot in the top eight as they’re already flawless in the competition with three wins from three.

Man Utd are winless across their last nine matches, conceding multiple goals in each of their last three games against Chelsea, Bournemouth and Como.

There’s actually an argument to suggest that Carrick and his side may prefer playing away from Old Trafford at the moment, due to the growing toxicity in the ground which was evident against Bournemouth a few weeks ago.

Roma are flying under Gian Piero Gasperini, they scored five at the weekend against Udinese and have scored in each of their last six matches - netting multiple times in all of these games, including three goals against Real Madrid.

Roma have only failed to score in one game all season, which was an away defeat to Como where Roma were reduced to 10 men early in the second half. Malen in particular is playing really well, netting eight goals in Serie A already - he could be the one to get on the scoresheet for the away side.

Nico González has given away more fouls than any other Newcastle player this season, with 15 in six Premier League games, averaging 3.09 per 90 minutes.

The Spanish midfielder has already picked up three yellow cards, including one in each of his last two games against Aston Villa and Crystal Palace.

Newcastle are also among the most booked teams in the league, with 22 yellow cards in eight games. At home, that average is even higher, at 3.5 per match.

González is likely to come up against Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, who's been one of Everton's most fouled players, getting fouled around 1.7 times per game.

The referee is worth a mention too. John Brooks has shown 28 yellow cards in five Premier League games, averaging 5.6 per match.

These two sides also met in the League Cup just last Thursday, when González gave away three fouls, but managed to avoid a booking.

Gordon has settled in really well to this Barcelona side, and has had the most shots on target of any Barcelona player in the Champions League this season.

All four of his shots on target actually came in one game, as Barcelona beat Galatasaray 4-1 a few weeks ago. That may sound alarming, but his record in LaLiga suggests that he’s much more consistent when it comes to finding the target.

Only Raphinha and Yamal (both 19) have had more shots on target than Gordon in LaLiga this season. The former Newcastle winger is averaging 1.81 shots on target per 90 domestically - and has found the target in 70% of his LaLiga matches.

It’s also worth noting that one of the main reasons as to why Barcelona went for Gordon in the summer was because of his record in the Champions League last season.

Gordon scored 10 goals across just nine starts for a Newcastle side that struggled to deal with the quality of the Champions League. He had 14 shots on target during that campaign, working out to an average of 1.64 shots on target per 90.

Believe it or not, only Mbappe (10) has had more shots on target in the Champions League this season than Nicolas Jackson (8).

He’s found the target twice in all three of his Champions League matches against Brugge, Fenerbahce and Viking. While this is an obvious step up in quality, Barcelona still offer up so many chances to opposition sides with their high line.

Jackson’s movement is really clever, and has improved further working under the guidance of Unai Emery - who seems to have a way to get the most out of forwards that previously haven’t been that clinical.

Jackson should also be full of confidence. He’s scored in each of his last two Premier League matches against Fulham and Man City, managing a shot on target in each of his last five games domestically.

Hansi Flick confirmed in a recent press conference that he has no intention of changing Barcelona’s style of play, which sees them play with a ridiculously high line without really having the right profiles to play in this way.

Their forward options almost always account for this weakness, but it does mean that Barcelona regularly give up chances to the opposition. They’ve failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five matches, and have only kept four across their last 14 games more widely.

This defensive weakness obviously leads to more work for Joan Garcia, who is a top keeper. He’s been forced into making 20 saves across his 10 starts domestically (2.11 per 90) and has also been called into action 13 times across his three Champions League starts (4.33 per 90).

Building on the obvious weakness of Barcelona at the back, Aston Villa have enough quality in forward areas to get on the scoresheet.

It would be a real shock if Barcelona didn’t manage to get on the scoresheet here, they’ve scored in each of their last 16 competitive matches - including every game this season.

So we’re mainly looking at Villa to score here, with Jackson and Manzambi being their main threats. Unai Emery’s side have scored at least three goals in every Champions League game so far.

This is an obvious step up in quality from those opponents, but I can’t get away from Barcelona’s risky style of play here which will inevitably lead to Villa getting decent chances in front of goal.

Barcelona have seen BTTS in each of their last five matches, including conceding goals to Deportivo La Coruna and Galatasaray. They also have seen BTTS in all three of their Champions League games.

El Khannouss is a really interesting player.

I was impressed with what I saw from him when he was at Leicester, but consistency has been an issue for the Moroccan.

He does have a pretty decent shot record to back him for an effort here, taking six shots across his three Champions League appearances (2.23 per 90).

His domestic record is appealing too, he had to be patient to earn his spot in the side at the start of the season but has had 10 shots across his four starts in the Bundesliga (2.23 per 90).

He scored from two shots in Stuttgart’s win over Leverkusen over the weekend, so he should have plenty of confidence to take on at least two shots here at a pretty decent price.

Luis Suarez is clearly Sporting’s biggest threat in front of goal and has had at least two shots on target in all three of his Champions League matches.

Suarez has scored eight goals across his seven starts domestically for Sporting, taking 28 shots across those games (3.80 per 90), with eight of them finding the target.

He’s on penalties for Sporting as well, which is where one of his four goals in the Champions League have come from this term. Only Nicolas Jackson and Kylian Mbappe have had more shots on target in the Champions League than Luis Suarez.

Dilane Bakwa is an exciting, but eccentric, winger and he’s at a decent price to have a few shots in this clash as Lille travel to Bodo Glimt.

Bodo Glimt’s games in the Champions League have a reputation for being entertaining and I can see this being an end to end affair.

Bakwa has had more shots than any other Lille player in the Champions League so far (6 - 2.39 per 90), and managed four shots against Galatasaray last time out - highlighting how he can sometimes take on shots when there are better options available.

Bakwa has also had a shot in all five of his Ligue 1 appearances this season, managing multiple shots in two of these games.

Barella has had a shot in all three of his Champions League matches this season, having two shots against Shakhtar last time out.

He’s got a consistent record domestically too, taking 16 shots across his nine appearances in Serie A (1.91 per 90), only three players in the Inter squad have had more shots than Barella in Serie A this term.

This record would suggest that Barella is being encouraged to push forward more often. He’s had a shot in eight of his nine appearances domestically, so this is clearly a consistent part of his game - with Barella having multiple shots in five of these games.

Bryan Mbeumo has had more shots on target than any other Man Utd player across all competitions this season (14 - 1.19 per 90).

He found the target right at the death against Chelsea last time out, forcing a superb save from Mike Penders. That effort on target landed my Chelsea v Man Utd Bet Builder on Saturday, and I think Mbeumo can help us to another winner.

He’s incredibly consistent when it comes to finding the target, managing at least one effort on goal in every Premier League match this term. He’s found the target in two of his three Champions League matches, only failing to do so against Como.

Mbeumo should lead the line for Man Utd again here, with Benjamin Sesko still battling an injury.

Believe it or not, only Mbappe (10) has had more shots on target in the Champions League this season than Nicolas Jackson (8).

He’s found the target twice in all three of his Champions League matches against Brugge, Fenerbahce and Viking. While this is an obvious step up in quality, Barcelona still offer up so many chances to opposition sides with their high line.

Jackson’s movement is really clever, and has improved further working under the guidance of Unai Emery - who seems to have a way to get the most out of forwards that previously haven’t been that clinical.

Jackson should also be full of confidence. He’s scored in each of his last two Premier League matches against Fulham and Man City, managing a shot on target in each of his last five games domestically.

There was a lot of promise in Burnley’s 0-0 draw with Portsmouth on Saturday, their first game with Fabio Celestini in charge.

Burnley generated 1.89 xG, with Marcus Edwards producing one of the biggest misses of the season so far, while, arguably even more impressively, they restricted Pompey to five shots and only one inside the box - equating to 0.25 xG.

A performance close to that will see them generate enough chances to get on the scoresheet at a QPR side who’re not known for defensive solidity.

They have conceded in 10/13 league games so far this season, while Burnley’s improved defensive process should give them the platform to express themselves more in the final third.

Poor old Preston.

They’ve already pressed the new manager button, welcoming a club legend in Graham Alexander back to the club after his very impressive work at Bradford, but he’s only returned one point from five league games.

They mustered a pathetic 0.10 xG from just three shots in their 2-0 defeat at Stoke on Saturday and they host a Sheff U side who have improved of late and are knocking on the door of the play-offs as a result.

Chris Wilder’s Blades have scored in their last five league away games, netting two or more in three of those, and have taken seven points from their last three games.

This bet is unbeaten in 12/13 PNE league games this season and they’re already six points adrift of safety, sitting rock-bottom with preparation for League One creeping towards the forefront of their minds.

Lincoln continue to be underestimated by the market and should get on the scoresheet at Vicarage Road.

Lincoln have scored in 10/13 in the league, and one of those blanks was a game where they saw two red cards in the first half, it’s 10/12 (83%) if we exclude that one.

Watford have only kept one clean sheet in their 13 league outings, and it came at home to Charlton - who’re 2nd-bottom for xG for and goals for.

Watford are a relegation-battler on virtually every metric, they’re at the bottom end for xG against as well, while Lincoln have scored seven goals in their last three games, with this bet landing in the first half of two of those.

Huddersfield are playing so well, it could materialise that they run away with the league and build a 10+ point cushion at the top.

They’re title favourites and as short as 1.44 in places for promotion.

If that comes to pass, it’ll make a mockery of the fact that we’re still getting prices around even money for them to win home games.

Huddersfield top the league on points, expected points, expected goal difference and xG against, while they’re 2nd for xG for.

There are two teams in this match though and Luton are only five points back in the table, they’re overperforming a touch in front of goal - netting 26 from 23.2 xG where Huddersfield are at a more sustainable 27 from 28.5.

The scheduling is against the visitors as well, this will be their second away game in four days while Huddersfield’s 3-0 early kick-off win at Bradford on Saturday was done and dusted by the time Luton kicked off in their 2-0 win at Peterborough.

This bet is unbeaten in 6/6 of Huddersfield’s home league games this term.

Southampton have scored in 12/13 league games so far this term, and they travel to a West Brom side who’ve unsustainably overperformed to concede only 14 from 19.0 xG.

Saints have scored seven goals in their last two games, and that’s come against 8th and 9th in the table (West Ham and QPR) but their attack has been so good they’ve been able to find the net like they were playing relegation-battlers.

West Brom have kept just two clean sheets in 13 league outings, shutting out Watford and Derby (21st and 23rd), they’re about to face a far superior attack.

Only Middlesbrough and West Ham have scored more in the league than Southampton, and the visitors rank 5th for xG for.

Bryan Mbeumo has had more shots on target than any other Man Utd player across all competitions this season (14 - 1.19 per 90).

He found the target right at the death against Chelsea last time out, forcing a superb save from Mike Penders. That effort on target landed my Chelsea v Man Utd Bet Builder on Saturday, and I think Mbeumo can help us to another winner.

He’s incredibly consistent when it comes to finding the target, managing at least one effort on goal in every Premier League match this term. He’s found the target in two of his three Champions League matches, only failing to do so against Como.

Mbeumo should lead the line for Man Utd again here, with Benjamin Sesko still battling an injury.

Only Donyell Malen (21) has had more shots on target across all competitions for Roma this season than Soule (13 - 1.38 per 90).

He’s such a talented player, and is playing under the perfect coach on Gian Piero Gasperini - who has made a habit of taking attacking players to the next level, as he’s done with Malen over the last year.

Soule has also taken the second most shots for Roma (32 - 3.39 per 90) across all competitions, again only sitting behind Malen - who is having a freakish season.

Soule has had at least two shots in eight of his ten matches in Serie A this season, and will certainly get opportunities here against a Man Utd side who look hopeless at the moment.

Roma have been one of the most exciting sides in Europe to watch this season, and saw seven goals at the weekend as they beat Udinese 5-2.

They’ve seen 3+ goals in each of their last four games, including their last Champions League clash against Slovan Bratislava, where they covered this line on their own in a 4-0 win.

Roma have seen 3+ goals in two of their three Champions League matches, with the exception of their 1-1 draw against Fenerbahce which is a real anomaly when you look at Roma’s games overall.

Man Utd are winless across their last nine matches, which is one of the worst records in the club’s history. They conceded an xG of 3.01 against Chelsea over the weekend, and conceded four in their last Champions League clash against Como.

Mario Hermoso committed three fouls at the weekend as Roma came away 5-2 winners against Udinese. I’d consider looking at higher lines for the centre back here, they’re pretty generously priced for a player that is regularly quite aggressive.

Hermoso has committed a foul in all three of his Champions League matches so far, committing multiple fouls against Real Madrid and Fenerbahce. He committed 40 fouls across 25 starts in Serie A last season (1.72 per 90), also maintaining an average of 1.93 fouls committed per 90 in the Europa League.

It’s clear that Hermoso is a consistent player when it comes to winning fouls, and will be one of the main Roma players to watch here for infringements. You can back Hermoso to commit 2+ fouls at 2.50, which is a really appealing price.

Building on the obvious weakness of Barcelona at the back, Aston Villa have enough quality in forward areas to get on the scoresheet.

It would be a real shock if Barcelona didn’t manage to get on the scoresheet here, they’ve scored in each of their last 16 competitive matches - including every game this season.

So we’re mainly looking at Villa to score here, with Jackson and Manzambi being their main threats. Unai Emery’s side have scored at least three goals in every Champions League game so far.

This is an obvious step up in quality from those opponents, but I can’t get away from Barcelona’s risky style of play here which will inevitably lead to Villa getting decent chances in front of goal.

Barcelona have seen BTTS in each of their last five matches, including conceding goals to Deportivo La Coruna and Galatasaray. They also have seen BTTS in all three of their Champions League games.

Man Utd are winless across their last nine matches, conceding multiple goals in each of their last three games against Chelsea, Bournemouth and Como.

There’s actually an argument to suggest that Carrick and his side may prefer playing away from Old Trafford at the moment, due to the growing toxicity in the ground which was evident against Bournemouth a few weeks ago.

Roma are flying under Gian Piero Gasperini, they scored five at the weekend against Udinese and have scored in each of their last six matches - netting multiple times in all of these games, including three goals against Real Madrid.

Roma have only failed to score in one game all season, which was an away defeat to Como where Roma were reduced to 10 men early in the second half. Malen in particular is playing really well, netting eight goals in Serie A already - he could be the one to get on the scoresheet for the away side.

Bayern have really struggled to keep clean sheets this season, with both teams scoring in each of their last seven games across all competitions.

They drew 2-2 at home to Dortmund over the weekend, the same scoreline as their last Champions League game against Arsenal.

Their attack has still been incredible, averaging more than three goals per game this season, but their defence has been giving opponents plenty of chances, allowing at least 12 shots in four of their last five games.

They even conceded against second-division side Magdeburg, allowing nine shots in that game.

Atlético have the third-best attack in La Liga and they've scored in all five of their home league matches.

They're averaging 1.82 xG at home across all competitions and have already shown what they can do by beating Real Madrid 2-1.

Both Villarreal and PSG have scored and conceded in all three of their Champions League games so far, and every one of those games has had at least four goals.

PSG have the best attack in the competition, averaging 4.67 goals per game, and they're coming off two 4-2 wins against Manchester City and Barcelona.

Villarreal, meanwhile, have shown they can score against defences that don't usually give much away, putting three past Liverpool and two past Dortmund away from home.

That hasn't been enough to turn those performances into more wins, though, as they've conceded eight goals in the Champions League, averaging 2.67 per match.

The Spanish side have also gone 14 straight games in the competition without keeping a clean sheet.

The good news is that PSG haven't exactly been solid at the back either, conceding five goals in three games, including one at home to Slovan Bratislava.

Villarreal have had at least 13 shots in every Champions League game so far, and now they're facing a PSG side that takes more shots than anyone else, averaging 24 attempts per match.

Both Villarreal and PSG have scored and conceded in all three of their Champions League games so far, and every one of those games has had at least four goals.

PSG have the best attack in the competition, averaging 4.67 goals per game, and they're coming off two 4-2 wins against Manchester City and Barcelona.

Villarreal, meanwhile, have shown they can score against defences that don't usually give much away, putting three past Liverpool and two past Dortmund away from home.

That hasn't been enough to turn those performances into more wins, though, as they've conceded eight goals in the Champions League, averaging 2.67 per match.

The Spanish side have also gone 14 straight games in the competition without keeping a clean sheet.

The good news is that PSG haven't exactly been solid at the back either, conceding five goals in three games, including one at home to Slovan Bratislava.

Villarreal have had at least 13 shots in every Champions League game so far, and now they're facing a PSG side that takes more shots than anyone else, averaging 24 attempts per match.

Only Donyell Malen (21) has had more shots on target across all competitions for Roma this season than Soule (13 - 1.38 per 90).

He’s such a talented player, and is playing under the perfect coach on Gian Piero Gasperini - who has made a habit of taking attacking players to the next level, as he’s done with Malen over the last year.

Soule has also taken the second most shots for Roma (32 - 3.39 per 90) across all competitions, again only sitting behind Malen - who is having a freakish season.

Soule has had at least two shots in eight of his ten matches in Serie A this season, and will certainly get opportunities here against a Man Utd side who look hopeless at the moment.

Yamal has reached a new level of goalscoring this season, netting 12 goals across just 14 appearances across all competitions.

It’s a part of his game that has steadily improved over the last few years, with the winger going from 18 goals in his first full season to 24 goals last year.

Yamal scored six goals across his ten appearances in the Champions League last season. He’s already scored two goals across his three starts in the competition this year, and comes into this clash having scored twice at the weekend against Deportivo La Coruna.

Manzambi is such an exciting player, and has slotted in seamlessly as a replacement for Morgan Rogers.

He’s linked up really well with Jackson, and has scored three goals already this season - including one in the Champions League.

Only Buendia (27) and Jackson (33) have taken more shots for Aston Villa this season than Manzambi (3.70 per 90), with Manzambi featuring in four fewer games than this duo.

He’s had six shots on target across his seven appearances overall (1.17 per 90) and found the target against Fulham at the weekend.

Matty Cash has picked up more yellow cards than any other Aston Villa player this season, with five in eight Premier League games, including four in his last five matches.

The right-back has also been giving away plenty of fouls, averaging 2.19 per 90 minutes.

He recently gave away four fouls and got booked against Manchester City. Against Fulham last time out, he picked up another yellow despite committing just one foul.

Cash is likely to come up against Anthony Gordon, who's been fouled in three of his last four starts. He'll also have to deal with Raphinha's movement down that side.

The referee could make things even trickier for Cash. Davide Massa has averaged 4.35 yellow cards per game in Serie A over the past 12 months, while calling more than 25 fouls per match.

Rodri has committed 10 fouls across his 13 appearances for Barcelona across all competitions this season (1.00 per 90), but I’d expect that record to rise as we go through the season and there’s a favourable matchup here against one of the most fouled sides in the Premier League.

Aston Villa have long been a very good side when it comes to winning fouls, no English side has won more fouls than Villa since Emery took charge and that’s no coincidence - the way Villa play invites fouls and sets up individual matchups all over the pitch.

I’m particularly interested in Rodri’s battle with Joao Gomes here. I can see the Brazilian really getting involved in the midfield battle, antagonising Rodri in the process. He’s won four fouls in the Champions League this season.

Rodri will also have to manage the threat of John McGinn, who is one of the best players in Europe when it comes to winning fouls - maintaining an average of 2.00 fouls won per 90 or higher in each of the last three seasons.

Bayern have seen this selection land in each of their last 10 matches across all competitions, including all three of their Champions League games against Arsenal, Viking and Bodo Glimt.

Bayern have covered this line on their own in two of those games, and have also notably failed to keep a clean sheet across their last seven matches. That recent record would suggest that Atletico can contribute to the goal tally here in what should be an end to end and entertaining match.

Atletico’s recent matches have admittedly been a lot tighter, but their last two Champions League games have seen a red card produced in the second half - massively affecting the gamestate. They did see 3+ goals on Matchday 1, losing 2-1 to Liverpool at Anfield.

It’s hard to see how Atletico can get any success here by just being defensive solid. They have to offer an attacking threat to match the scoring power of Bayern, who have seen 3+ goals in 88% of their Bundesliga matches and 100% of their Champions League matches.

Bayern are averaging 8.0 corners per game in the Champions League this season, which is impressively high. Even though that figure is highly influenced by the Bavarians’ count of 15 against Viking, Bayern are averaging 8.1 corners per game across all competitions, highlighting just how attack-minded they have been.

However, it is unlikely to be one-way traffic for the full 90 minutes in Madrid - Atletico tend to play with confidence on home turf. They are unbeaten in any of their six games at the Metropolitano this season, so another open contest is expected on Tuesday night. Because of that, corners are one to target.

After a difficult start to the season, Julian Alvarez seems to finally be finding his confidence again, and he scored his first league goal against Deportivo La Coruna. Prior to that, Alvarez also found the back of the net against Stuttgart in the Champions League.

The Argentine international is averaging 3.81 shots per 90 across all competitions this season, which is the highest figure in the Atletico squad, and he is expected to play a big role midweek. Alvarez has the tools to exploit Bayern’s high line - if he can utilise his pace and clever movement in behind, he will pose a serious threat to the Bavarians.

Dayot Upamecano is averaging 1.3 fouls per 90 across all competitions this season, landing this selection in eight of his ten starts overall. That includes two infringements in the derby at the weekend, and one foul against Arsenal in the previous round of the Champions League.

The centre back likes to be aggressive in his duels, and regularly step out of the back line to try and win the ball back quickly. Upamecano will have the tough task of trying to contain Alvarez on Tuesday night, but also Kang-In Lee, who is averaging 1.65 fouls drawn per 90 across all competitions.

Rodri has committed 10 fouls across his 13 appearances for Barcelona across all competitions this season (1.00 per 90), but I’d expect that record to rise as we go through the season and there’s a favourable matchup here against one of the most fouled sides in the Premier League.

Aston Villa have long been a very good side when it comes to winning fouls, no English side has won more fouls than Villa since Emery took charge and that’s no coincidence - the way Villa play invites fouls and sets up individual matchups all over the pitch.

I’m particularly interested in Rodri’s battle with Joao Gomes here. I can see the Brazilian really getting involved in the midfield battle, antagonising Rodri in the process. He’s won four fouls in the Champions League this season.

Rodri will also have to manage the threat of John McGinn, who is one of the best players in Europe when it comes to winning fouls - maintaining an average of 2.00 fouls won per 90 or higher in each of the last three seasons.

Mario Hermoso committed three fouls at the weekend as Roma came away 5-2 winners against Udinese. I’d consider looking at higher lines for the centre back here, they’re pretty generously priced for a player that is regularly quite aggressive.

Hermoso has committed a foul in all three of his Champions League matches so far, committing multiple fouls against Real Madrid and Fenerbahce. He committed 40 fouls across 25 starts in Serie A last season (1.72 per 90), also maintaining an average of 1.93 fouls committed per 90 in the Europa League.

It’s clear that Hermoso is a consistent player when it comes to winning fouls, and will be one of the main Roma players to watch here for infringements. You can back Hermoso to commit 2+ fouls at 2.50, which is a really appealing price.

Tajon Buchanan has won more fouls than any other Villarreal player in the Champions League this season (7 - 4.67 per 90), and has also won the most fouls across all competitions for the LaLiga side (3.18 per 90).

He won 36 fouls across his 34 appearances in LaLiga last season (1.78 per 90), with only three players in the Villarreal squad winning more fouls than Buchanan during that campaign.

PSG aren't the most aggressive side in Europe, but do play with a really effective counter press. This can leave gaps, especially in wide areas with Hakimi and Mendes being so willing to push on into advanced areas. I can see Buchanan exploiting that space, making him a target to be fouled.

Southampton are stronger than West Brom on almost every metric, they’re not in terms of their league position but that’s due to their four-point deduction.

Saints would be three points higher than the overperforming Baggies if it wasn’t for the deduction, but they can pull two ahead of them with a win at The Hawthorns.

Max O’Leary Goals Prevented of 6.00, comfortably the best in the league, is one of the main reasons why West Brom are still bouncing around in the play-offs, they won’t be for much longer if performances don’t improve.

The 3-1 win at West Ham looks good on paper, they took advantage of some very poor defending and such that could spell the end of Nuno Espirito Santo sooner rather than later.

Southampton have scored seven goals in their last two games, and could continue in that vein against the Baggies’ overperforming backline.

This bet has won in 10 of Schlotterbeck’s 11 Championship games this season (91%).

He had two shots on target, both headers from corners, in the 4-1 win v QPR on Saturday, and West Brom are allowing 4.62 shots per 90 from set pieces, the 7th-most in the division.

0.46 set piece xG against ranks them as the 5th-leakiest side in the league when it comes to denying the opposition chances from dead balls.

The odds are very attractive for this bet, considering how reliable Schlotterbeck has been at delivering on this selection (10/11) , 47% of the xG that West Ham generated against West Brom at the weekend came from set pieces.

Max Kilman had two shots from corners against West Brom on Saturday, you can get 5.50 in places on Schlotterbeck matching that tally.

He’s not a striker, but the biggest shot threat in the West Brom side is Isaac Price.

Price is at 3.07 shots per 90 in the league this season, has landed this bet in 10 of 13 league appearances and will lead the charge against the visiting automatic promotion hopefuls.

Even though Southampton have the 7th-best backline in terms of xG against, they concede a lot of shots, just lower probability ones than many of their second tier rivals, which is good for this bet.

Only Blackburn (13th), Charlton (20th), Watford (21st), Preston (24th) and Lincoln (16th), have conceded more shots than Southampton this season, and Price does not need a second invitation to let fly.

Price has had four shots from free kicks this season and has scored two penalties, so there’re plenty of circumstances where this selection sails in, even if Southampton are the better team on the night.

This bet has won in five of West Brom’s last six, even Preston covered this line and they’re six points adrift of safety already.

West Ham, Wolves and Birmingham have all managed eight corners or more against West Brom, in those last six outings, and Southampton are a side that’ll be competing in the same section of the table as that trio this season.

Max O’Leary’s excellent form between the sticks could also help this bet, tipping shots round the post that are destined for the back of the net more than other goalkeepers have been able to.

Saints have comfortably covered this line in their last three, with nine against QPR and six against West Ham in their last two.

Roland Sallai has given away at least one foul in ten of Galatasaray's 12 games this season.

He's averaging 1.5 fouls per game and has already picked up four yellow cards.

Against Barcelona in the Champions League, he came on in the 67th minute and got booked in the 86th after giving away two fouls in less than 20 minutes.

Sallai is expected to play at right-back, where he'll be up against Chris Führich. The Stuttgart winger has recorded six dribbles in three Champions League games and is also one of his team's most active dribblers in the Bundesliga.

The referee is worth a mention too. Chris Kavanagh has shown 32 yellow cards in six Premier League games this season, an average of 5.33 per match.

Galatasaray have also picked up seven yellow cards in three Champions League games, averaging 2.33 per match, and Sallai is often heavily involved in the defensive work down that side.

Matty Cash has picked up more yellow cards than any other Aston Villa player this season, with five in eight Premier League games, including four in his last five matches.

The right-back has also been giving away plenty of fouls, averaging 2.19 per 90 minutes.

He recently gave away four fouls and got booked against Manchester City. Against Fulham last time out, he picked up another yellow despite committing just one foul.

Cash is likely to come up against Anthony Gordon, who's been fouled in three of his last four starts. He'll also have to deal with Raphinha's movement down that side.

The referee could make things even trickier for Cash. Davide Massa has averaged 4.35 yellow cards per game in Serie A over the past 12 months, while calling more than 25 fouls per match.

Marcus Thuram has five goals and two assists this season, and he's Inter's main goal threat with Lautaro Martinez out.

Inter have one of the best attacks in Italy, scoring 26 goals in ten games and leading Serie A in xG, averaging around 2.69 per match.

With Lautaro out, Thuram is taking more shots than anyone else in the team, averaging 4.33 per 90 minutes.

He recently had a great game against Fiorentina, taking nine shots, four of them on target.

Feyenoord have really struggled defensively in the Champions League, conceding eight goals in three games.

They've allowed 58 shots, including 24 on target, averaging almost 20 shots and eight on target per game.

Barcelona scored five against Feyenoord, while Como managed to score twice despite playing away in Rotterdam.

Thuram has already had success against Feyenoord too. He scored in both of their last two meetings in the 2024/25 Champions League, including Inter's 2-0 away win.

Despite that, Archie Brown was fouled twice in that 6-0 defeat against Aston Villa a few weeks ago, and he has been adept at drawing contact this season.

The fullback is averaging 3.0 fouls drawn per 90 in Europe this term, and he has landed this selection in all three appearances. Liverpool press aggressively under Iraola, and they are averaging 13.0 fouls per game across all competitions this season. They will be eager to bounce back from their loss at the weekend, and this is a favourable matchup for Brown to extend his streak.

Bradley Barcola has three goals and two assists in his last four starts across all competitions, and he should be looking forward to playing in the Champions League again. The former PSG man bagged a hat-trick against LASK Linz in round two, before providing the assist for Isak to score the winner in the next game.

It took a while for the Frenchman to adapt to life on Merseyside, but he has really come out of his shell in recent weeks. Based on how Fenerbahce capitulated against Aston Villa just a few weeks ago, this looks like a good matchup to back Liverpool, and their forwards should be licking their lips.

Milan Skriniar had a really tough time at Villa Park, and this matchup promises to be no easier. Since that game, the centre back committed two fouls against Alanyaspor, two infringements against Slavia Prague, and three fouls against Goztepe. He was carded in the latter two matches.

The centre back is averaging 1.07 fouls per 90 across all competitions this season, and he has picked up five yellow cards in his last 14 matches. That shows how Skriniar can often be caught out of position and forced into cynical fouls. Interestingly, his numbers rise to 1.43 fouls per 90 when playing at the Chobani Stadium, which bodes well for this selection.

Despite losing 6-0 against Villa, Fenerbahce did create some good opportunities, and they finished the game with 15 shots. Oguz Aydin accounted for five of those efforts, which was more than any other player in the Fenerbahce squad. The 26-year-old is averaging 3.07 shots per 90 across all competitions this season, and he scored a wonder goal against Slavia Prague in the previous round of the Champions League.

Impressively, he scored that with his weak foot, which shows just how lethal he can be from distance. Aydin is always looking to cut inside and drive towards goal, and he isn't afraid to try his luck from range either.

Liverpool have been one of the most entertaining sides to watch in the Champions League, with a total of 12 goals scored from just three matches so far. That includes a notable comeback against Villarreal in the previous round - after going 2-0 down, Liverpool came back to win 4-3. That was the second time the Reds have conceded three goals in Europe this term - they also played out a thrilling 6-3 win against LASK Linz.

Fenerbahce haven't quite been as expansive, but over 2.5 goals has landed in each of their last seven matches across all competitions. They haven't been in the best of form heading into this clash against Liverpool, which doesn't bode well for them.

Fenerbahce suffered a 2-1 defeat against Gotepe at the weekend, and there were a total of six yellow cards dished out in that match. Prior to that, Fenerbahce landed this selection on their own against Galatasaray, racking up six yellow cards. The Turkish side have been no stranger to the referees notebook, and they are averaging 2.44 cards per game in their Champions League matches so far, including qualifiers.

Liverpool have also shown more of an aggressive edge under Andoni Iraola, and there were seven cards shown in their match against Arsenal at the weekend. They have seen an average of 4.56 cards per game across all competitions this season.

Mason Greenwood wasn't given the friendliest reception when returning to English soil a few weeks back, as he was fouled three times against Aston Villa. Fenerbahce lost that game 6-0, and it was barely a contest with Greenwood being subbed after 69 minutes. The former Man United man is likely to be met with another frosty reception by Liverpool.

Greenwood has drawn six fouls in his three Champions League starts this season, and he is likely to be up against Kostas Tsimikas on Wednesday night. The Greek international has featured sporadically this season, but he is averaging 2.59 fouls per 90 from his limited game time.

Iraola has typically opted for changes in midweek games this season, so Rio Ngumoha is perhaps most likely to start on the left wing. Gakpo could shift into a centre forward role, with Alexander Isak rested. Gakpo was on the scoresheet in the EFL Cup midweek, albeit from the penalty spot, but he did land this selection just after with a shot on target from outside the box.

The Dutch international didn't have as much success in the final third at the weekend against Arsenal, but there should be more opportunities for him going forward against Fenerbahce. He had three shots with one on target in his last European outing, which was against Villarreal.