Football Tips Today

Last week's Europa League matches saw an average of:

3.5 goals per game
4.4 cards per game

I've managed to sort us a nice boost for 2+ goals & 2+ corners in all 8pm Europa League games tonight, hoping for a continuation of that trend. It's as short as 7.00 elsewhere and should be a fun one to track.

You can load it below 👇

Celtic racked up 14 corners alone in that game against Falkirk, although it is worth noting that the hosts sat very deep at times to protect their lead. Besiktas should be more progressive, but Celtic have nevertheless been a target for corners all season. The Scottish side are averaging 8.1 corners per game across all competitions this season, rising to 8.7 at home.

They have been adept at getting to the byline to create corner opportunities, but Besiktas should also be able to contribute to the tally at Celtic Park. The Turkish side are averaging 5.7 corners per game, and there isn’t much to split these sides pre-match.

There were four cards shown in Celtic’s last European match against Celta Vigo, and the Scottish side accounted for all of those. Martin O’Neill’s men haven’t been in the best of form coming into this clash, which has led to an uptick in cards. In fact, they have landed this selection in nine of their last 11 games across all competitions.

Besiktas are drawing an average of 2.5 cards per game this season, rising to 3.2 when playing away from home. They have been a frustrating side to play against, and they are likely to cause problems for Celtic midweek.

Colby Donovan has committed 17 fouls in his last nine appearances across all competitions, and he has been carded in a third of those matches. That includes three infringements against Celta Vigo in the previous round of the Europa League. The fullback likes to be aggressive in his duels, and he should see plenty of involvement defensively on Thursday night.

Leandro Trossard looks set to start on the left wing, which will put him directly up against Donovan. The Belgian international is averaging 2.13 fouls drawn per 90 across all competitions this season since completing his move from Arsenal, and he has seen plenty of the ball.

Camilo Duran finds himself in a rich vein of form, and he has scored in seven of his last nine starts across all competitions. The Colombian international has been impressive on the European stage, and he has landed this selection in all three starts. That includes three shots against Ferencvaros in round one, with one of those hitting the target.

Duran then bagged his first goal in the Europa League against Benfica, scoring Celtic’s only goal of the match in Portugal. He is averaging 3.4 shots per 90 across all competitions this season, which is comfortably the highest figure in the squad.

In addition to his contributions in the final third, Duran is averaging 1.8 fouls drawn per 90 across all competitions this season. He likes having the ball at his feet, and sometimes drops a bit deeper to try and link the play going forward. Duran can be a real handful for opposing defenders to contain, and Emmanuel Agbadou will try to keep him quiet on Thursday night.

The centre back is averaging 1.74 fouls per 90 across all competitions this season, and he has registered a foul in ten of his eleven starts this season. Based on that, this looks like a standout price.

Brighton put in a gutsy and spirited performance at the Etihad last weekend, and they held on to a 1-0 victory. The Seagulls are now third in the Premier League standings, just five points behind Arsenal. They have been seriously impressive, and Fabian Hurzeler’s men will hope to carry that momentum into Thursday night.

Getafe’s form has been more mixed, and they were dealt a shock 5-2 defeat against Lugano in the previous round of the Conference League. The Spanish side have taken just one point from their opening two European matches, and this isn’t an easy matchup to break that streak. Even though Brighton tend to rotate midweek, they should have more than enough firepower to get over the line here.

Martin Satriano has been Getafe’s most active player in the final third this season, and he comes into this clash in excellent form. The Uruguay international provided the assist for Enes Unal to equalise against Sevilla at the weekend, before Satriano found the back of the net himself.

The winger is averaging 2.49 shots per 90 across all competitions this season, rising to 3.15 when playing at home. In fact, he has landed this selection in seven of his eight appearances on home turf this campaign. Satriano likes to cut inside from the left wing, and the ten of his 22 efforts in the league this season have come from outside the box.

Hurzeler has typically opted for rotation in midweek games, and Georginio Rutter will be expecting a recall. The Frenchman has been in good form recently, and he found the back of the net against Man City in his last start, which was in the EFL Cup. Rutter had four shots in that match, and four hit the target,

The 24-year-old has landed this selection with ease in both Conference League appearances so far. That includes a brace in round one against Zalgiris. Rutter couldn’t score against a stubborn Jablonec rearguard, but the striker did record six attempts, of which three hit the target, which shows just how active he is in the final third.

Paris Brunner has scored in all four of his Conference League appearances, including in qualifying, with 17 shots and nine on target.

He's Monaco's top scorer this season, with eight goals in 11 games.

Nordsjælland have conceded 13 goals in seven away league games, averaging 1.86 per match, while allowing more than six shots on target per game.

They've also struggled defensively in the Conference League, conceding three goals against Hearts and CSKA Sofia and allowing seven shots on target in each game.

Monaco have scored 14 goals in six home games this season, including four against Górnik Zabrze and three against Freiburg.

Brunner has been particularly dangerous at home, averaging 2.09 shots on target per 90 minutes and scoring five of his eight goals this season on home soil.

The Black Cats have really struggled in the Premier League, but performances midweek have been much more positive. They beat Brentford 3-2 in the EFL Cup last week, earning them a spot amongst the final eight teams in the competition. In the Europa League, Sunderland are battling near the top of the standings with the record of two wins and one draw, and this looks like an excellent matchup for them to extend their unbeaten record.

Dinamo Zagreb sit mid-table on four points, and they were beaten 4-2 by NEC Nijmegen in their last European outing. There seems to be a significant gulf in quality between these sides on paper, so Sunderland will hope to make that count.

Dinamo Zagreb have only received a total of three yellow cards across their three Europa League matches so far, but this upcoming clash against Sunderland is likely to be their toughest yet. The Black Cats have drawn an average of 1.8 cards per game this season, and this selection has landed in each of their last three matches across all competitions.

Coventry picked up two yellow cards at the weekend, while Brentford were shown three bookings before that. Regis Le Bris’ men tend to play with more attacking intent at the Stadium of Light, and they will have to be front-footed here as they hope to build some momentum.

Niko Galesic in particular is one to keep an eye on at fullback, and he is averaging 1.66 fouls per 90 across all competitions this season. In the Europa League, that number jumps to 3.29 fouls per 90, where he has landed this selection in all three appearances. No Zagreb player has committed more fouls than Galesic on the European stage this season, and he will likely draw the matchup of Malick Fofana out wide.

The Sunderland winger was fouled twice against Brentford last week, and he is averaging 1.22 fouls drawn per 90 since joining for Sunderland. He is a player who likes to be direct in his play and try to beat his marker, exemplified by an average of 2.6 fouls drawn per 90 when playing for Lyon last season.

Dinamo Zagreb come into this clash as underdogs, but seeing Sunderland at the bottom of the Premier League standings will certainly give them some hope of pulling off an upset at the Stadium of Light. The Black Cats have struggled to limit chances for their opponents so far, and they will have to keep an eye on Dion Beljo. The Croatian striker has scored in both Europa League appearances this season, including a brace against NEC Nijmegen in the previous round.

He is averaging an eye-catching 5.02 shots per 90 in the Croatian top flight this season, with 12 goals to his name from ten starts, which shows just how devastating he can be in the final third.

Harder is on loan from Leipzig at Strasbourg and has the opportunity for a consistent run in a side for the first time since his spell at Sporting with Strasbourg's main striker option, Panichelli, being ruled out until the end of the year.

Harder is obviously very talented, he was chased by Premier League clubs after impressing at Sporting but opted for a move to Leipzig.

He's found his feet at Strasbourg, managing a shot on target in each of his last four games ahead of this clash.

He netted against Auxerre last time out from two shots, and should take that confidence into this fixture. Strasbourg simply can't rely on their defensive solidity here, they've failed to keep a clean sheet across their last 24 matches.

Toulouse have struggled too, especially in front of their own fans, winning just one of their opening four home games and conceding 13.78 shots per game.

Harder has had 11 shots across his four starts overall in Ligue 1 (2.70 per 90), and I only think we'll see him improve the longer he gets a consistent role in the side.

As I touched on in the lower odds bet builder, Dewsbury-Hall has really benefitted from having Harrison Armstrong and James Garner behind him this season.

It frees up the former Chelsea man to get more involved in the final third, and that has seen Dewsbury-Hall record three goal contributions across his nine starts for Everton - only Thierno Barry (4) has more.

That headline number might not jump off the page, but his underlying metrics are really impressive. He leads Everton for shots created (20 - 2.24 per 90), and also takes set pieces for the Toffees, which is always a viable route to goal for David Moyes' teams.

His shot numbers have also risen, with only Barry (again) taking more shots for Everton than Dewsbury-Hall this season (23 - 2.57 per 90).

Jack Rudoni is certainly capable of playing at this level, and no Coventry player has taken more shots than the midfielder this season (14 - 1.94 per 90).

He's seen six of these efforts find the target (0.83 per 90), which is also the most of any Coventry player. He's at his most effective when arriving late in the box, a trait that has been passed on from his manager who was better at that than any other player in Premier League history.

Rudoni has had at least one shot in all four of Coventry's away games this season, including clashes against Tottenham, Man City and Arsenal. He's found the target in three of those games as well, so he's not too phased by the quality of opponent at this level.

This midfield battle should be a really engaging one with Yirenkyi having to deal with Dewsbury-Hall, Armstrong and Garner.

Yirenkyi has committed six more fouls than any other Coventry player in the Premier League this season (18 - 2.89 per 90).

He's committed a foul in all four of his away matches for Coventry this season, committing multiple fouls in three of these games and even committing 3+ fouls on two occasions.

This is quite natural for a player that is new to the Premier League, you can see that he is just a second or so behind the pace of the division.

He already had a pretty good baseline for fouls, averaging 1.65 fouls committed per 90 in the season prior to joining Coventry - and the increased pace and physicality of the Premier League has seen this rise even more.

Armstrong has committed more fouls than any other Everton player in the Premier League this season (10 - 1.14 per 90).

I wouldn't get too obsessed with that average, it's not totally reflective of how aggressive Armstrong is in the middle of the park and he's got a nice matchup here against Coventry's two most fouled players this term.

Armstrong ranks in the 85th percentile or higher in the Premier League for fouls committed per 90, duels per 90 and tackles per 90.

These are famously difficult metrics to rank high in for midfielders, so it shows us that Armstrong is more willing than most to focus on the defensive side of his game.

Armstrong has committed at least one foul in all four of his home games, committing multiple fouls against Ipswich and Crystal Palace.

I’ve backed this angle twice already this season and it’s won on both occasions - with Kudus winning four fouls against Crystal Palace last time out.

It’s such an attractive price for a player who has won more fouls than any other Tottenham player this season (14 - 2.77 per 90), also attempting 7.12 dribbles per 90 and 4.15 dribbles past opponents per 90 - which are great supporting stats when backing a player to win fouls.

I think this price is leaning a bit on Kudus’ foul won record last season, which is a real anomaly if you look at his career as a whole:

26/27 - 2.77 fouls won p/90

25/26 - 0.87 fouls won p/90

24/25 - 2.21 fouls won p/90

23/24 - 2.72 fouls won p/90

22/23 - 2.12 fouls won p/90

Kudus struggled with injuries last season and lacked confidence in the duels he contests more regularly, explaining that anomaly. I don’t think we’ll keep getting this price, he’s been fouled in each of his last seven matches - winning multiple fouls in four of these games.

Leeds are averaging 13.11 fouls committed per game in the Premier League this term, with this tally rising to 15.00 fouls per game across their last five matches.

You won't see many more convincing runs of form this season than the run Rapid Wien are on at the moment.

They've won each of their last eight games, scoring at least twice in all of them and winning five to nil - including beating Wolfsberger 3-0 on the road back in September.

They overperformed on their underlying numbers in that game, but that's not the case when you look at their season on the whole.

Rapid Wien lead the Austrian Bundesliga for goals and clean sheets, as well as ranking in the top three for xG, shots on target and goals against.

Wolfsberger sit rock bottom of the Austrian Bundesliga, having won just one of their 11 matches domestically. They've only scored eight goals across these games, which is the main concern against the scoring power of Rapid Wien.

They've only scored twice across their five away matches, losing four of these games, and Rapid Wien should be able to replicate the victory they managed over Wolfsberger back in September quite easily.

Willem II are having a really tough time adapting to the level of the Eredivisie, having been promoted from the Eerste Divisie last season through the playoffs.

Willem II have failed to win any of their opening 11 matches in the Eredivisie, losing nine of these games.

Unsurprisingly, this record leaves them rock bottom of the table - and they've conceded more goals than anyone else (39 - 3.54 per game).

They conceded seven goals against PSV last time out, showing how they can crumble and potentially opening the door for Zwolle to cover this line on their own.

However, these are the types of games that the home side simply have to start winning if they are to stay up. Zwolle have only won three of their 11 games in the Eredivisie, conceding 23 goals in the process (2.09 per game).

Willem II have seen 3+ goals in each of their last five matches, notably managing to score in four of them. Willem II have also failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their games, while Zwolle have only managed to keep out two sides.

This should be a really exciting FA Cup tie between two sides who are in good form, but not very strong at keeping clean sheets.

Barnet have failed to keep a clean sheet across their last six matches, seeing BTTS in all of these games. Four of these games have ended with BTTS & No Draw, including their most recent home game against York City.

Barnet sit second in League Two after 13 matches, but have not kept a single clean sheet - signalling that they are a side that is more than comfortable in trusting their scoring power.

Tranmere have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches, with two of these games seeing BTTS & No Draw - including a 3-1 win over Cheltenham last time out.

Only two of Barnet’s seven home games in the league have finished level, I’d trust Tranmere to get on the scoresheet here but Barnet to eventually pull away - which has been a trend in their games this season.

Jong Utrecht sit rock bottom of the Eerste Divisie, which isn’t an uncommon fate for the youth sides of established Eredivisie clubs.

They tend to use it as a development pathway for their younger players, rather than focusing on properly competing in the league.

Remarkably, only one of Jong Utrecht’s 13 matches in the Eerste Divisie has finished level - they’ve seen BTTS & No Draw in each of their last seven matches.

Den Bosch have seen three of their seven home matches finish level, but will fancy their chances of getting all three points against the weakest and most open side in the division.

Their home matches have produced 26 goals (3.71 per game), with Den Bosch seeing BTTS in all seven of these matches.

These are two of the weakest sides defensively in the Eredivisie.

Den Haag have struggled with the step up to the Eredivisie from the Eerste Divisie, and sit second from bottom in the Dutch top flight having conceded 24 goals across their 11 matches (2.18 per game).

They’ve lost three of their five games, with those matches producing 20 goals (4.0 per game), setting up the home side nicely to be involved in a high scoring affair.

Sparta’s backline is also incredibly vulnerable, they’ve conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 10 matches and have seen BTTS & No Draw in half of these games.

Only one of Den Haag’s five home games has finished level, and only three of their wider 11 matches have ended with the points shared.

Liam Rosenior is doing an excellent job at Paris FC, and you have to respect his courage to come back into a role so soon after his embarrassing stint at Chelsea - which was far from a reflection of his coaching ability.

Paris FC sit fourth in Ligue 1, just three points adrift of the pace setters in PSG. Their games are mental, they’ve seen BTTS & No Draw in each of their last three matches. They’ve won two of these games as well, winning 3-1 against Monaco last time out and edging out a 4-3 thriller against Rennes.

Sandwiched between those wins was a 2-1 defeat to Lens, with Paris struggling a little on the road despite their positive start to the campaign. They’ve only won one of their four away matches, with these games producing nine goals (2.25 per game).

Auxerre may have only won three of their nine games in Ligue 1 this term, but they’ve scored 13 goals in the process. They’ve scored in each of their last five matches, with four of these games ending in BTTS & No Draw.

Coventry fans have had to be really patient to see Yann Gboho in the Premier League, who was signed from Toulouse over the summer after an impressive season in Ligue 1 - registering 11 goal contributions and averaging 1.98 shots per 90.

I'm not surprised that Gboho has had to wait for his opportunity. It's always difficult for players from foreign leagues to adapt in their first season in the Premier League, and Lampard was probably protecting Gboho while he got up to speed with the level.

He made his first start in the Premier League against Sunderland last time out, and was impressive - managing two shots in that game, with one finding the target.

I always like looking at players who have a point to prove for shots. We only need him to take aim once here, which is something he managed in 81% of his matches in Ligue 1 last season.

James Garner and Harrison Armstrong have been getting through quite a lot of work in the middle of the park, with their more defensive roles allowing the likes of Dewsbury-Hall, George and Barry to be more effective at the other end.

Dewsbury-Hall in particular is benefitting from having those two behind him, it frees him up to get more involved in the final third - which is where he's at his best. Armstrong (10) and Garner (9) have committed more fouls than any other Everton players this season, with Garner averaging 1.17 fouls committed per 90.

Garner has committed a foul in each of his last three Premier League matches, committing three in Everton's last home game against Chelsea.

He'll be up against Jack Rudoni (11 fouls won) and Caleb Yirenkyi (9 fouls won) who also happen to be the most fouled players in the Coventry squad this season. Rudoni could be his main battle here, he's been fouled at least once in three of Coventry's four away matches this season.

I'm so pleased to see Thierno Barry doing well.

He did so much right last season, without consistently finding the finishing touch and was judged quite harshly for it - but he's improving on that part of his game and has four goals across his nine starts in the Premier League.

I've backed him for a shot on target at appealing prices in recent weeks, even getting 1.72 when Everton travelled to Newcastle, but that price is no longer as appealing (1.20), so I'm looking at Barry in a slightly different capacity here.

Barry has won 14 fouls across his nine starts in the Premier League. Only two Everton players have won more than Barry this season, with many Premier League centre backs struggling with his unique, but awkward, frame.

Barry has been fouled in three of Everton's four home games this season, winning multiple fouls in two of these games. He's been fouled in eight of his nine Premier League appearances overall, showing a real consistency to his game with this metric.

Only three sides in the Premier League are seeing more match corners per game than Everton (10.67).

They've seen 9+ corners in 67% of their matches in the Premier League, and also notably are conceding 5.78 corners per game - only Hull and Crystal Palace are conceding more corners in the top flight at the moment.

Coventry's numbers don't stand out as much, averaging 8.56 match corners per game. However, Everton's notable corner record should see that rise here - David Moyes' side saw at least nine match corners in both recent matches with Newcastle.

This has landed in all four of Hull’s away games in the Premier League so far this season:

4 cards v Coventry

5 cards v Chelsea

5 cards v Newcastle

2 cards v Fulham

No side has picked up more yellow cards in the Premier League than Hull (2.78 per game), only failing to pick up a card in one of their nine games - which was against a Brentford side who rank in the bottom half of the table for cards against.

Arsenal have drawn the joint most cards of any side in the Premier League, alongside Aston Villa and Chelsea (3.22 per game).

Mikel Arteta’s side have also drawn more fouls than any other side in the Premier League (15.78 per game), so this looks like the perfect matchup for the away side to pick up at least two cards.

Preston are in a real mess right now.

They’ve failed to win any of their six games since Graham Alexander took over, losing five of these games - most recently losing 3-2 to Sheffield United at home during the week.

They’ve only won one of their 14 matches overall in the Championship, losing five of their seven games at home.

It’s unlikely to get any easier here against a Southampton side who have only lost one of their last 12 matches.

We only need Tonda Eckert’s side to win one half here, which is something they’ve done in each of their last three games.

Southampton also beat a much better Preston side in this fixture last season, coming away 3-1 winners with an xG of 2.41.

Dundee United are one of the form teams in the Scottish Premiership, and I think they can at the very least avoid defeat when they host Motherwell on Saturday.

Jim Goodwin’s side extended their unbeaten run to six matches with a hard-fought 2-2 draw away at Celtic last midweek.

The Terrors have also beaten Hibernian and Aberdeen at home during that run, so they will fancy their chances of adding to their points tally against Motherwell.

The Steelmen had taken just one point from seven league games before beating St Mirren 1-0 last weekend.

Moreover, Alfred Johansson’s side have won only once away from home in the Scottish top flight this term, and that came against bottom-of-the-table Hibernian on the opening weekend.

I think Hamilton can return to winning ways in Scottish League One by defeating Cove Rangers on Saturday.

Darian McKinnon’s side have played out a pair of 1-1 draws in their last two league games against Ross County and Montrose, who sit first and third in the table respectively.

Before those stalemates, the Accies were enjoying a seven-game winning run in the league, which included victories away at Alloa, East Kilbride and Airdrie.

While Cove Rangers picked up a morale-boosting 1-0 win away at Airdrie last weekend, they remain bottom of the table and have lost seven of their 12 league games this season.

It’s also worth pointing out that Paul Hartley’s side were trailing East Kilbride in their last league game at home before it was abandoned due to severe weather conditions.

Hamilton edged the reverse fixture 1-0, and I fancy them to come out on top in another low-scoring game on Saturday.

Tottenham cruised to victory last weekend against Crystal Palace, as the visitors were reduced to ten men early on. Jan Paul Van Hecke had very little defending to do, and he didn't record a foul. However, the centre back is averaging 1.13 fouls per 90 across all competitions this season, and he landed this bet in seven successive starts prior to last weekend.

Van Hecke should be called into action a lot more at Elland Road here, and he will be primarily up against Dominic Calvert-Lewin. The Leeds striker was fouled three times against Bournemouth last time out, proving a difficult player to contain for opposing centre backs.

Ezri Konsa is averaging 1.97 fouls drawn per 90 in the league this season - not only is that one of the highest figures in the Arsenal squad, but it's also one of the highest of any Premier League player this season. The centre back is adept at drawing contact, and he has landed this selection in six of his seven league starts overall.

Konsa has an excellent matchup this weekend to improve that hit-rate, as he will be directly up against Oli McBurnie. The Scottish striker is averaging 1.35 fouls per 90 this season, and he will look to make life hard for those Arsenal centre backs at the Emirates.

Newcastle have the worst disciplinary record in the Premier League after nine matches, with 26 yellow cards and two reds. The Magpies come into this clash following back-to-back defeats, so they will be desperate to bounce back at Craven Cottage here. Their midfielders have been notable contributors to their card record so far - Nico Gonzalez is averaging 2.81 fouls per 90 across all competitions, and he should occupy the same zone of the field as Josh King this weekend.

The 19-year-old has been pulling the strings from an advanced midfield position, averaging 1.59 fouls drawn per 90. He has landed this bet in four of his last six starts.

Elliot Anderson completed his switch from Nottingham Forest to Man City over the summer in a big-money move, and the England international will return to the City Ground this weekend. Anderson was a key player for Forest last season, and he actually drew more fouls than any other Premier League player.

So far, he is on track to repeat that impressive feat. Anderson has been fouled 28 times in his nine league appearances this campaign, which is six more than John McGinn in second. The defensive midfielder is averaging 3.61 fouls drawn per 90, and he might not get the friendliest reception from the Forest home crowd, which means his numbers could rise even further after this weekend.

Dundee United are one of the form teams in the Scottish Premiership, and I think they can at the very least avoid defeat when they host Motherwell on Saturday.

Jim Goodwin’s side extended their unbeaten run to six matches with a hard-fought 2-2 draw away at Celtic last midweek.

The Terrors have also beaten Hibernian and Aberdeen at home during that run, so they will fancy their chances of adding to their points tally against Motherwell.

The Steelmen had taken just one point from seven league games before beating St Mirren 1-0 last weekend.

Moreover, Alfred Johansson’s side have won only once away from home in the Scottish top flight this term, and that came against bottom-of-the-table Hibernian on the opening weekend.

I think Livingston look well placed to score at least once away at Inverness on Saturday.

The Lions picked up their most impressive result of the season last Friday night, claiming a convincing 3-0 win away at Stenhousemuir.

That followed a hard-fought 1-0 victory over Arbroath, so Livi are beginning to build momentum after a stuttering start to life back in the Scottish Championship.

Moreover, they have now scored at least once in seven of their last eight league matches, including a 2-2 draw with Inverness in the reverse fixture.

Confidence could be low in the Caley Jags camp after a 5-1 hammering at Dunfermline last Saturday, and Livi can get on the scoresheet in the Highlands.

Partick Thistle can bounce back from last weekend’s setback by winning away at Queen’s Park in the Scottish Championship on Saturday.

Mark Wilson’s men were unbeaten in five league games, winning four and drawing one, before a shock 3-2 home defeat to Morton.

I suspect that will prove a blip, and that the league leaders can get their title charge back on track at the first attempt this weekend.

Thistle have won away at Livingston and Ayr in recent times, while their last road trip ended in a 1-1 draw with an in-form Dunfermline side.

Queen’s Park should pose less of a test, with the Spiders bottom of the table after losing seven of their last eight matches, including the last three.

It might not be pretty, but I think Partick’s superior class will tell and see them claim all three points at Lesser Hampden.

I think Hamilton can return to winning ways in Scottish League One by defeating Cove Rangers on Saturday.

Darian McKinnon’s side have played out a pair of 1-1 draws in their last two league games against Ross County and Montrose, who sit first and third in the table respectively.

Before those stalemates, the Accies were enjoying a seven-game winning run in the league, which included victories away at Alloa, East Kilbride and Airdrie.

While Cove Rangers picked up a morale-boosting 1-0 win away at Airdrie last weekend, they remain bottom of the table and have lost seven of their 12 league games this season.

It’s also worth pointing out that Paul Hartley’s side were trailing East Kilbride in their last league game at home before it was abandoned due to severe weather conditions.

Hamilton edged the reverse fixture 1-0, and I fancy them to come out on top in another low-scoring game on Saturday.

Ross County have been really strong at home in Scottish League One this season, and I think they can put Peterhead to the sword while scoring at least a couple of goals in the process.

The Staggies have won 11 of their 13 league games this season, including five of their six matches at home.

Their only dropped points in Dingwall came in a 1-1 draw with title rivals Hamilton.

Stuart Kettlewell’s side have collected maximum points from their other five home games, scoring multiple goals in each.

As for Peterhead, they tend to do the majority of their best work at home, underlined by the fact that they have lost four of their last five away matches.

What’s more, the Blue Toon have conceded at least two goals in all four of those road defeats, and I think they will suffer the same fate on Saturday.

Moffi comes into this one in great form, with three goals in his last five games for Hamburg, including two in his last two appearances, both against Frankfurt.

He's averaging 2 shots and 1.16 shots on target per 90 minutes, putting over 50% of his shots on target.

Gladbach's defence also makes this a good chance for him. They've conceded 22 goals in eight games, the worst record in the Bundesliga, and are allowing almost eight shots on target per match.

Moffi now faces a Gladbach side sitting bottom of the Bundesliga, having conceded at least twice in every away game this season.

Stoke are in a false position, the league table lies and they are not the 4th-best team in the Championship.

The xG data shows that: they sit 18th on expected points, and have unsustainably overperformed in both boxes, scoring 22 from 14.9 xG and only conceding 17 from 21.4.

They’re also preparing for a second consecutive away game this week, where Pompey are at home for the second time in five days, beating 5th-placed Swansea 3-1 on Tuesday.

Stoke were also victorious in midweek, but it was not a convincing or repeatable winning performance, they scored a free kick and an own goal to win 2-1 at Blackburn, in a game where Rovers were arguably the better side.

Forget their recent history, Portsmouth are play-off challengers, one point outside the top eight heading into this match, and their xG process has been better than Stoke’s in both boxes this term.

They’re expected goal difference for the season is at -0.6, where Stoke’s -6.4 is the 6th-worst for that metric in the league.

Charlton are dropping like a stone, 11 winless in the league and they’ll be fighting the crowd as well as the threat of relegation if they go behind early.

The hosts are the worst team in the league going forward, them and Derby have scored 11 from 14 games, while Charlton have the worst xG for (13.0).

They’re now without a clean sheet in seven as well, and this could well be Nathan Jones’ last game in charge.

Sheffield United have picked up of late, three wins in four and their 3-2 win at Preston on Tuesday evening was more comfortable than the scoreline suggests - with Sydie Peck netting a first half hat-trick from midfield.

They’re a bet at odds-against quotes to win the game, I’m happy to take Draw No Bet for the acca.

Poor old Preston are very opposable once again.

They’re nine points adrift of safety already, with five points from 14 games, and though this is a double home week for them compared to Southampton’s two away trips, there was nothing in their Tuesday night defeat to suggest they’ll make a better fist of it on Saturday.

PNE managed only six shots in their 3-2 defeat to Sheffield United, they only had one shot in the entirety of the first half and that shot actually gave them the lead after two minutes.

Saints have great squad depth to cope with the busy schedule and a win will likely have them on the brink of the automatic promotion places heading into the international break - which is really impressive considering they started the season with a four-point deduction.

This is an understandable short price given the gap in quality between the two sides.

Preston have conceded 14 goals in their last five, just under three per game, and Saints have the talent to expose that backline again at Deepdale.

The schedule’s in their favour with a double home week compared to Millwall’s double away, and the Baggies gave a really good account of themselves in a 1-1 draw with Southampton on Tuesday.

This bet has won in five straight for West Brom, and in six of their seven home league games so far this term.

Millwall were 3-0 down, as it stayed, at Birmingham on Tuesday night and their only away win since the opening weekend came at rock-bottom Preston.

West Brom were utterly dominant in the first half in midweek, going in 1-0 up against the Saints without allowing their visitors a single shot.

The second half was a different story, but they’ll consider themselves unfortunate not to win the game having won the xG battle 2.46-1.38.

Injury issues have impacted Millwall’s rhythm this season and they should be in a better place after the international break, but a trip to The Hawthorns following their limp defeat in Birmingham on Tuesday is a big ask.

Gladbach have the worst defence in the Bundesliga, conceding 22 goals in eight games, and they've shipped at least two in all four away matches.

They also allow the most shots on target in the league at 7.8 per game, with an xGA of over 2 per match.

Hamburg's attack has picked up, scoring all seven of their goals in the last five games, including three against Hoffenheim and two against Koln, but they've conceded 19 in eight games themselves.

Gladbach have scored eight in their last five league games, averaging 14.5 shots per match, against a defence with just one clean sheet all season.

Strasbourg haven't kept a clean sheet in Ligue 1 this season, conceding 19 in nine games, and it's worse away from home at 13 in five games.

They also allow 5.7 shots on target per game, one of the highest rates in the league.

Toulouse have the fourth-highest xG in Ligue 1 at 1.88 per game and are top five for big chances created.

Strasbourg have scored 17 in nine league games, including a 5-1 win over Auxerre, and seven of their nine games have seen both teams score.

Sevilla have scored in all 11 La Liga games this season, but their defence has been shaky, conceding 19 goals and keeping just three clean sheets.

It's been worse lately, with 13 conceded in their last five games, including four against Real Madrid.

Alaves haven't been much better away, conceding 2.2 goals per game on average, including six at Barcelona last time out.

Both teams have scored in four of Alaves' last five away matches, and Sevilla are averaging 1.55 goals per game themselves.

Juan Jesus has been picking up cards regularly since joining Venezia, with three yellows in seven Serie A games, including one in his last match against Como.

The defender is averaging 1.28 fouls per 90 minutes and has been booked in three of his six starts.

He also picked up eight yellows and one red in 24 Serie A games for Napoli last season.

Venezia have been picking up plenty of cards this season, averaging 2.2 per game, one of the highest numbers in the league.

Juan Jesus will also have to deal with players like Zaniolo, who's been fouled 11 times in six appearances this season, including at least twice in four of those games.

Zaniolo has already got an opponent booked this season, with Simone Lontani receiving a yellow for fouling him against Parma in late October.

Lucien Agoume has committed the third-most fouls in La Liga this season, with 22 in 11 games, averaging two per match.

The midfielder has also picked up three yellow cards and was booked in his last game against Getafe, where he gave away three fouls.

Sevilla have been giving away plenty of fouls, with the second-highest total in the league at 161 in 11 games, along with 28 yellow cards.

Agoume could find himself up against Pablo Ibanez, who's been fouled 23 times in 11 games, averaging 2.09 per match. He's been fouled at least once in ten of those games.

Denis Suarez is another one to watch in midfield, having been fouled at least once in each of his last four starts and averaging 1.70 fouls won per 90 minutes.

Leicester haven’t earned the right to take this game lightly.

This bet wins if they win by three or more goals.

They’re still three points off the play-offs and seven back from automatic promotion - which would’ve been the aim pre-season.

They, and Russell Martin, have a lot to lose heading into this game, it’s only just over five years since they won the whole competition, and now they’re at Oxford City in the first round.

There’s 64 places between these two in the pyramid - 10th in League One to 2nd in National League North - yet the bookies are pricing it up like they’re of a similar level.

Last Saturday, Middlesbrough went off 1.15 to beat Charlton and Stockport went off 1.25 to beat AFC Wimbledon.

Arsenal went off 1.18 to beat Coventry earlier in the season.

This weekend Leicester are 1.33 to win at Oxford City, over double the odds of Boro last weekend to beat Charlton, and Leicester aren’t in a position to rest and rotate, they need to play a strong team to ensure they avoid embarrassment.

A reason for this price is that they’re playing away from home (it’s a relatively short journey of under two hours), and Oxford City play on an artificial pitch.

While Oxford City’s experience on this surface helps, I don’t think it’ll concern Leicester as much as it would other sides.

Russell Martin likes to keep the ball on the ground and the consistent surface will aid that, and lots of their players have recently made the step up from youth football where these surfaces are more commonly used.

Will Alves, 21, Louis Page, 18, Sammy Braybrooke, 22, and Kamari Doyle, 21, all started their 2-2 draw with Stevenage last weekend.

Leicester need to build confidence and faith in this project, and playing against a side who’ve already lost to Buxton, Telford and South Shields this season should help them in doing that.

A ladder bet appeals on this game, splitting, not increasing, the stake across the -1 @ 1.95, -2 @ 3.30, -3 @ 6.50 and -4 @ 13.0 is an option to capitalise if Leicester do run away with it.

Leicester have scored twice or more in four of five in League One; they're capable of doing so again and building on that against this level of opposition.

Jayden Bogle didn’t manage to get a shot off against Bournemouth last weekend, breaking a six-game streak. The Leeds wingback likes to get forward and join in with attacks, so he is averaging 1.09 shots per 90 across all competitions this season. He has even managed to find the back of the net once, against Brighton back in September.

Spurs are a team in good form at the moment, but Elland Road is one of the tougher away days in the Premier League. Daniel Farke’s men are unbeaten in four league matches at home this season, and Bogle has accounted for five shots in that time.

Kai Havertz scored the only goal of the game last weekend, as Arsenal secured a huge three points at Anfield. The German international was in the right place at the right time to convert a cross from Declan Rice early in the first half.

Havertz is averaging 2.01 shots per 90 in the Premier League this season, which is nothing to write home about, but over half of his efforts have hit the target. That shows how the majority of his chances tend to be of a high-quality nature, and the Gunners should be able to generate some clear-cut opportunities against this Hull side who are in a poor run of form.

After a poor start under Alvaro Arbeloa, Fulham have picked up seven points in their last three league matches, which has lifted them out of the bottom three. Alex Iwobi has been a key reason for that, as he scored Fulham’s only goal against Hull to kick-start their unbeaten streak. Iwobi had three shots against Aston Villa last time out, with one of those on target, and he was guilty of missing a couple of great chances.

Iwobi is averaging 1.9 shots per 90 across all competitions this season, rising to 2.22 when playing at Craven Cottage, where he has landed this bet in each of his last three matches.

McAtee is averaging 1.86 shots per 90 across all competitions this season, and he has landed this selection in five of his last seven starts.

That includes two shots against Arsenal at the City Ground a few weeks ago. Both of those efforts came from outside the box.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin has been a reliable source of shots on target for Leeds this season, and this leg backs him to find one again against Tottenham.

He faces a Spurs defence that has been breached regularly in recent weeks, and Calvert-Lewin remains Leeds' focal point in attack.

Mohammed Kudus draws plenty of fouls for Tottenham and has won more fouls than any other Spurs player this season.

Leeds have been undisciplined in recent games, and Kudus' direct running should see him fouled again here.

Mateus Fernandes has been getting forward regularly for Tottenham and has been a consistent shot-taker from midfield this season.

Leeds have shown they can be opened up through the middle, which should give Fernandes the platform to get an effort away.

Both sides have been involved in corner-heavy games this season, and this fixture looks set to follow that pattern.

With Tottenham likely to see plenty of the ball and Leeds committed going forward, 8.5 corners should be beaten comfortably.

This has landed in all four of Hull’s away games in the Premier League so far this season:

4 cards v Coventry

5 cards v Chelsea

5 cards v Newcastle

2 cards v Fulham

No side has picked up more yellow cards in the Premier League than Hull (2.78 per game), only failing to pick up a card in one of their nine games - which was against a Brentford side who rank in the bottom half of the table for cards against.

Arsenal have drawn the joint most cards of any side in the Premier League, alongside Aston Villa and Chelsea (3.22 per game).

Mikel Arteta’s side have also drawn more fouls than any other side in the Premier League (15.78 per game), so this looks like the perfect matchup for the away side to pick up at least two cards.

Arsenal are averaging 5.4 corners per game in the Premier League this season, with that figure rising steeply to 6.8 when playing at home. They are one of the best teams in the league at dominating possession and sustaining pressure on their opponents, and Hull don’t quite have the personnel to break that press consistently.

The Tigers have been no stranger to a low block this season, and they are averaging just 37% possession in the league. Because of that, Hull have conceded an average of 6.1 corners per game. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see that figure rise even more after the weekend.

Martin Odegaard has started this season in excellent form, and he has emerged as a crucial player for the Gunners in the final third, as they will be missing some regular starters this weekend. Bukayo Saka is the most notable absentee, while Eberechi Eze is doubtful to feature.

Odegaard failed to register a shot against Liverpool at Anfield last time out, but this matchup should be considerably easier, and Odegaard typically has more success going forward at the Emirates Stadium. In fact, the Norwegian international is averaging 2.85 shots per 90 at home this season, compared to just 0.98 shots per 90 away, and he has landed this selection in all five home starts.

Oli McBurnie looks set to lead the line for Hull this weekend, and he is going to be incredibly isolated at times. However, this is the kind of matchup which the Scottish international seems to really look forward to. McBurnie is an incredibly physical centre forward - he likes using his body and getting up to contest aerial duels, which means Hull often look to play to him at every available opportunity.

McBurnie is averaging 1.8 fouls drawn per 90 in the Premier League, and he has landed this selection in all nine starts. That includes three fouls drawn against Chelsea, and two against Man United.

Gabriel Magalhaes will be primarily tasked with trying to contain the Hull striker, and that is a matchup to keep an eye on. The Brazilian centre back isn’t one to shy away from a physical contest, and he is averaging 0.78 fouls per 90 in the league this season. While that figure is nothing to write home about, Gabriel has recorded a foul in six of his nine starts. He failed to land this bet against Liverpool and Chelsea.

Interestingly, Gabriel seems to land this selection in matchups where Arsenal will dominate possession - he is given more freedom in those games to be aggressive and step out of the back line to win the ball back quickly.

After a positive start to the season, Newcastle’s form has dipped in recent weeks, and they are in the middle of a rough patch of form. The Magpies were beaten 1-0 by Everton last weekend, after being dumped out of the EFL Cup by the same opponent just before that. Newcastle were comprehensively beaten in both of those games.

Fulham should be able to cause problems in the final third, and they are averaging 6.6 corners per game across all competitions this season. That figure rises to an eye--catching 7.5 at Craven Cottage, where Fulham have landed this selection in five of their six matches overall.

Fulham’s results have been a mixed bag, but Alvaro Arbeloa deserves perhaps more credit for the job he has done since succeeding Marco Silva. The Cottagers play front-footed football, but they have only been let down at times by poor finishing.

Newcastle have the worst disciplinary record in the Premier League so far, and they are again expected to have a lot of defensive work to get through this weekend. Matthias Jaissle’s men were shown four yellow cards and a red against Everton last time out, meaning this selection has landed in each of their last four matches across all competitions.

Josh King has been instrumental in the final third for Fulham this season, operating in an advanced midfield position. He is averaging 2.49 shots per 90 across all competitions this term, rising to 2.9 when playing at Craven Cottage. King plays with much more confidence in front of a home crowd, and he has landed this selection in all four starts. Both of his goals this season have been scored at home, too.

This looks like a positive matchup for the 19-year-old, against a Newcastle side still licking their wounds after back-to-back defeats. They conceded 27 shots across those games, with ten of those on target, highlighting how they have leaked chances defensively.

Joelinton hobbled off towards the end of the game last week, and his replacement Jacob Ramsey was shown a red card. That leaves Newcastle a bit light on midfield options, so there is a big responsibility on the shoulders of Nico Gonzalez. He is likely to partner Joe Willock in the double pivot - the Englishman is a lot more attack-minded.

That will give Nico Gonzalez a greater defensive burden to carry, and the former Man City man is averaging 2.81 fouls per 90 since arriving at St James’ Park. He has landed this selection in seven of his nine starts, and been carded in three of those, which shows just how strong his tackles tend to be.

No player in this Newcastle squad has drawn more fouls than Lewis Hall this season, with the 22-year-old landing this bet in seven of his last eleven starts across all competitions. Despite being listed as a left back on paper, Hall is influential when the Magpies get on the ball - he often looks to invert centrally into midfield areas, and link with Harvey Barnes going forward.

Hall is adept at using his body to win soft free-kicks and allow Newcastle to establish themselves on the ball, and he has suffered ten fouls in his last three starts alone. He should find duels against Timothy Castagne this weekend, who is averaging 1.35 fouls per 90.

Real Madrid have been devastatingly efficient in the final third recently, and they should come into this clash full of confidence. They secured a convincing 3-0 win against Racing Santander last weekend, after beating Barcelona 2-1 at the Nou Camp. Los Blancos still have plenty to play for here as they aim to close the gap on their rivals at the top of the table.

Even though Valencia will have home advantage this weekend, it looks like a daunting matchup for them. Los Ches are currently battling in the relegation zone, having won just two of their opening 11 league matches. With 17 goals conceded, they have been far from watertight at the back, which spells danger against a side like Real Madrid.

Guido Rodriguez has been a key contributor to Valencia’s poor disciplinary record this season, and he has 14 fouls committed from just eight starts this campaign. The Argentine international has been booked three times in that stretch, averaging 1.88 fouls per 90.

Last season, Rodriguez had an average of 1.44 fouls per 90 across all competitions, which shows how he has been a lot more intense in his press this term. He didn’t start either game against Real Madrid, but did rack up five fouls against Barcelona at home, which shows how he struggled in tougher matchups. He should find duels against Jude Bellingham in midfield this weekend - the English international is averaging 3.11 fouls drawn per 90 in the league.

Valencia come into this clash as massive underdogs, but if they are to find any success in the final third, Arnaut Danjuma will have to play a considerable role. The former Spurs man is averaging 1.93 shots per 90 in La Liga this term, which is one of the highest figures in the Valencia squad, and he is expected to lead the line. Danjuma will be quite isolated at times, but he has the tools to exploit Madrid’s high line, and the 29-year-old isn’t afraid to try his luck from distance.

Valencia lost 5-0 against Barcelona at home in September, and they managed just three shots as a team, but Danjuma accounted for all three.

When Valencia did break forward, it was Danjuma who they typically looked for. However, it is likely to be one-way traffic for the majority of this contest at the Mestalla. Barcelona recorded 73% possession against Los Ches, carving out 25 shots of which ten hit the target. Valencia are unlikely to be able to keep Los Blancos at bay, and Kylian Mbappe should be licking his lips at the prospect of this matchup.

The Frenchman already has 12 goals from 12 starts in the league this season, but he still has some catching up to do. Raphinha is at 15 goals, so Mbappe will be motivated to close that gap, and this is an excellent matchup to do so.

I suspect it may not be pretty, but Rangers should have enough to get the job done and win away at St Mirren on Saturday night.

Derek McInnes’s men come into this clash in fairly good nick, having avoided defeat in their last nine Scottish Premiership matches, claiming top honours in seven of them.

The Gers also booked their place in the Scottish League Cup final with a 1-0 win over Aberdeen at Hampden last weekend.

Notably, Rangers have already beaten St Mirren twice this season, following up a 5-1 victory in the early rounds of the League Cup with a 1-0 win in the reverse fixture.

The Saints made a strong start to the season, but their form has since dipped, losing six of their last eight league matches, the most recent of which was a 1-0 loss away at Motherwell last Saturday.

Craig McLeish’s men have already lost 2-1 at home to Celtic this season, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Rangers win by the same scoreline in Paisley.

Rangers are still a work in progress, but Derek McInnes has already brought a bit more steel to the side.

I expect them to get stuck in against St Mirren on Saturday night, so I’m backing the Light Blues to pick up two or more cards.

Moreover, Rangers have collected an average of 1.82 cards per game in the Scottish Premiership this season.

Upon closer inspection, it can be seen that the Glasgow heavyweights have racked up multiple bookings in five of their six top-flight fixtures away from Ibrox this term.

I think there’s plenty of scope for that trend to continue against a St Mirren team who have been among the Scottish Premiership’s most ill-disciplined this season and will look to drag Rangers into a battle.

It’s also worth pointing out that five of the Saints’ last six top-flight opponents have been shown 2 or more cards.

Adding weight to the case is the fact that Rangers picked up 2 cards to St Mirren’s 1 when the pair met at Ibrox in the Scottish League Cup earlier this season.

Kevin Kelsy has settled in at Rangers in no time and has quickly established himself as a key player, which is why I’m keen to back him for a goal or assist.

The powerful Venezuelan forward has scored 4 goals across his first seven Scottish Premiership appearances, with 3 of those coming in his last two outings.

What’s more, he scored one and set up another during Rangers’ 3-0 win over Celtic in the Scottish League Cup back in September.

Kelsy looks the sort of striker who only needs one chance, and he’ll fancy his chances of scoring against a St Mirren side that have been far from watertight this season.

The Saints have kept just 1 clean sheet in six home league games this season and have shipped 2 or more goals in three of their last five on their own patch.

I think James Penrice continues to be overpriced in the shots market, which is why I’m backing the Rangers utility man to have at least one attempt on Saturday night.

Since joining Rangers on loan, Penrice has mainly operated at left-back, where his attack-minded approach has been clear to see.

That is reflected in his average of 1.20 shots per game in the Scottish Premiership this season.

Digging deeper, he has had at least 1 shot in seven of his nine league appearances this term, firing off multiple efforts in three of his last five outings.

Penrice also got 1 shot away against St Mirren in this season’s reverse fixture at Ibrox.

The hosts are conceding just under 15 shots per game and are likely to spend long spells on the back foot, so Penrice should get chances to let fly.

He has also featured in midfield recently and has been known to take set pieces from shooting range.