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There will be a new name on the Coupe des Mousquetaires come Sunday evening as one of Spain’s Carlos Alcaraz or Germany’s Alexander Zverev will win their maiden French Open title.
For Alcaraz, this would be a remarkable third leg of a career Grand Slam of all four major titles at the age of only 21. He is a natural clay courter, which is fairly obvious given his nationality, but has come up short in previous attempts at Roland-Garros. The joy and relief on his face after his semi-final win over Jannik Sinner was clear to see.
For Alexander Zverev, this is also a first Roland-Garros final, but he has reached the US Open final before. The German will be eager to avoid a repeat of that final in 2020, which he lost from being two sets up over Dominic Thiem.
Our collection of the best free bet offers is available to all bettors ahead of the French Open Final, to go along with our list of the best betting sites.
French Open Men’s Final Best Bets
- Alexander Zverev to win 3-1 @ 8.0 on Paddy Power
- Alexander Zverev to win 3-2 @ 7.0 on Paddy Power
- Alexander Zverev (+4.5) Game Handicap @ 2.0 on Paddy Power
Alcaraz is the right favourite. He is the player with the greater skills and the higher ceiling. However, he is also the player with the lower floor and the greater inconsistency, which makes his price of 1.3 to win a difficult one to take as a bettor.
Zverev uses his giant frame to dominate his service games with a really high first serve percentage and then the German’s movement is superb, especially on a clay court. He has become really difficult to get the ball past, albeit he is probably not as attacking as he once was.
The value in the market is with Zverev. He has already shown in these conditions and in a Grand Slam this year, that his brand of consistent ball retrieval can get the better of Alcaraz in a longer match. This makes correct scores of Zverev to win 3-1 (8.0) or 3-2 (7.0) in sets appeal.
We will take on Alcaraz via the game handicap market. Zverev has developed a consistency that means that he tends to be in every set, all the sets he has lost so far this tournament, bar one, have been to single breaks of serve. Alcaraz can drop in a clanger of a set from time to time, and therefore he could still win the match, but Zverev could cover the 4.5 game handicap line at 2.0. This is our best bet for the final.
🎾 Carlos Alcaraz: Route to the final
It is easy to forget now that there were quite a few doubts over Alcaraz’s fitness heading into this tournament.
He has persisted with wearing a protective sleeve on his racquet arm throughout the tournament despite quotes in the press saying that his arm is fine, it may well be superstition to keep it on at this stage! Either way, there seem to have been no ill effects to his game this fortnight.
Alcaraz has improved through the tournament. His fitness was proven with a rout of American JJ Wolf in the opening round. He then struggled to find his game and dropped a set to Dutch qualifier Jesper De Jong, but then recorded straight sets victories over Sebastian Korda, Felix Auger-Aliassime, and Stefanos Tsitsipas.
Then came the epic five-set semi-final over Australian Open champion, and current world number one, Jannik Sinner. Alcaraz used great mentality, physicality, and tactical nous to come back from 2-1 down to complete a great victory. This will have given him immense confidence coming into the final.
🎾 Alexander Zverev: Route to the final
The German had won the Rome Masters just ahead of the French Open so was always looking like he could be a big danger at Roland-Garros, especially following three consecutive semi-finals here from 2021-2023.
However, he must have been shocked, along with the rest of us, when the legendary Rafael Nadal was drawn to face him in the opening round. It could go down as Nadal’s final match at Roland-Garros as Zverev was able to sweep past the 14-time French Open champion in straight sets.
Zverev hit trouble in rounds three and four, having to go five sets with Tallon Griekspoor & Holger Rune. However, he has been at his unpassable best in the quarter-final and semi-final wins over Alex De Minaur & Casper Ruud respectively.
⚔️ Head-to-Head Record
The finalists have played nine times before on tour, with Zverev edging the score 5-4 overall.
Two of Zverev’s wins came very early in Alcaraz’s career in 2021, but since mid-2022 Alcaraz has blown Zverev out of the water four times.
When Zverev has won, the matches have been long, tough encounters. One was at the French Open in the quarter-finals of 2022, and one at the Australian Open this year, so both Zverev wins are very relevant for this match either in terms of location or recency.
However, Alcaraz did win their last encounter in Indian Wells in March in a very comfortable fashion.
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