Birmingham v Sheffield United

Birmingham appear to have become a lot looser in their game control over recent weeks. The xG total in their last four games has been 2.71xG per 90 compared to a seasonal average of 2.2xG per 90. This doesn’t appear to have been reflected in the odds for the goals market yet, however, which gives us the advantage.

Though Birmingham lost the lively Riley McGree recently, their recruitment of Onel Hernandez and Lyle Taylor has completely transformed the options available to Lee Bowyer and it seems as though he is happy to play three genuine attacking players and attempt to balance that elsewhere. The match against Derby demonstrated the effectiveness of the new front foot policy, but the old problem of conceding soft goals hasn’t been rooted out yet which has seen them struggle down in 17th in the Championship

Sheffield United would appear to be benefitting from a similar goal-den period of form. They have scored twice in each of their last three matches, but this is no surprise. They are averaging 1.64xG per 90 going forwards, substantially up from their whole season average of 1.36cG per 90. Billy Sharp is now the all-time Championship top scorer and appears to be as lively as ever around the box despite his 35 years. Morgan Gibbs-White is now also back in training, although it is unlikely he starts here.

With the increased openness of Birmingham’s matches and the sharpness of the Blades there are good reasons to be with goals here.

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Blackpool v Bristol City

Two of the teams that have the highest xG per 90 in their matches meet at Bloomfield Road. Blackpool actually have seen enough chances in their last four matches to report an xG of over 3 per 90. Bristol City’s xG data, as discussed in previous previews, has been high for a long time.

The Robins have now gone eight consecutive matches in which both teams have scored and the goal total has been over 2.5. Whilst I am very much aware that this run is unsustainable in the long term the odds that are being offered continue to make this avenue valuable.

The form of Antoine Semenyo in particular for Bristol City is key to their continued chance creation numbers and with Andreas Weimann continuing to finish to a very high Championship standard, as long as both are playing, there is confidence on the pitch that this run can continue.

A concern for this line of thinking may well be that Blackpool have kept clean sheets in their last two home matches. However, these were against quite blunt attacks in Hull City and Millwall, the data suggests that they actually concede more chances at home than they create (19.77xG vs 17.71 non-penalty xG over the season as a whole).

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Hull v Preston

Out of the four Championship fixtures this weekend this is the one that pits the teams that are furthest apart in the xG form tables together. Hull are on a great run of results, three wins in a row, since the new owners were installed. However, against both Bournemouth and Swansea they very much defied the numbers in order to do so. Even against Blackburn an early goal definitely swayed the direction of that match.

This is not to cast aspersions on Hull as a team. They have been well balanced, well-coached and since the return of George Honeyman they have found a way to pick up a lot of points. However, the sustained run against chance creation cannot last. They are 22nd in the expected points table over the last 4 matches, creating only 0.88xG per 90 and conceding 1.44 non-penalty xG per 90. We are also yet to really see what Shota Arveladze will do in the dugout. His first team selection was simply a mirror of Grant McCann’s formula, so perhaps a move away from that could be a negative.

Preston, on the other hand, have continued to show impressive signs under Ryan Lowe. They scored twice again on Saturday, showing great attitude to score late to salvage a morale-boosting point. The quality of the finish from Emil Riis demonstrated how in form he feels and having two foils to choose from in attack with Ched Evans and Cameron Archer means that the attack should always be fresh. The solidity of the three central defenders and a double pivot in front of them has meant that they have conceded very few chances in open play (only 0.47xG per 90 in the last 12 matches). This does mean that they have been surprisingly weak at set-pieces though, which Hull may look to capitalise on.

Whilst I don’t necessarily think that Preston should be favourites for the game, I do think that the odds should be much closer together. Take Preston Draw No Bet as a good insurance policy against a potential stalemate

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Swansea City v Blackburn Rovers

Swansea are following the Russell Martin trait of dominating possession, dominating most performance metrics and yet, struggling to get their rewards for that. There was a very similar pattern to this in Martin’s first season of management at MK Dons last season, but in the second half of the season this changed. Recent Swansea performances have continued to be strong, but the absence of Joel Piroe, Jamie Paterson, and Ethan Laird has removed some of their cutting edge.

The good news for the Swans is that Paterson has resolved his issues with the club and is back available for selection, however, his lack of match fitness may mean that he isn’t ready to be thrown back in against Blackburn from the start.

Blackburn is not a team against which you want to have attacking issues. Rovers have produced nine clean sheets in eleven matches and even when down to the bare bones in most areas on the pitch against Luton at the weekend (Daniel Ayala played up front for the last half an hour) their defensive solidity remained intact.

Even if Blackburn take the lead in the match it is likely that they will continue to keep the route to goal tightly guarded. Alternatively, if Swansea do manage to find a way through the Rovers rearguard, Blackburn have not proven themselves to be adept at coming from behind, as recently demonstrated against Hull City.

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