Arouca v Santa Clara

After beginning the month of April with a 2-1 victory at home against Gil Vicente, Arouca stumbled to a defeat at the Estádio da Bessa against Petit’s Boavista, with an early goal from Kenji Gorré giving the Axadrezados a hard-fought, even-keeled win at home. Armando Evangelista’s side sit three points above the relegation zone and one point above the play-off spot with five matches remaining in the season.

Santa Clara all but secured their status in the Primeira next season with a 2-0 win against Estoril Praia, their first victory in a month, and they will be looking to get its second consecutive win against a promoted side when they travel to Arouca on Friday. The Azoreans have lost a key leader in defense with veteran right back Rafael Ramos’ departure to Corinthians and they are bracing for the departure of Hidemasa Morita, linked with a summer move to Sporting, who came off the bench, but they nevertheless came out with a comfortable victory at home vs. Estoril.

Since losing to Benfica on February 12, Santa Clara have conceded more than one goal on just one occasion – a 3-0 defeat to Porto at the Dragão. They have proven to be a stubborn unit under new manager Mário Silva and will be looking to grind out another result against an Arouca side that’s far more desperate for a victory.

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Famalicão v Gil Vicente

It has been one month since Gil Vicente’s backup left back Henrique Gomes came off the bench and within 28 seconds scored a late winner in Braga to put Gil within a point of Carlos Carvalhal’s side in fourth-place and Europa League qualification. It could just as easily have been a lifetime.

Gil Vicente followed that last-gasp victory with a 1-1 draw to Marítimo before losing to relegation battlers Arouca and Moreirense. Their Europa League dreams are a thing of the past, and they are even closer to 6th-place Vitória than they are to Braga. For the second straight match, Gil Vicente lost 2-1 despite playing with an extra man for 45 minutes, with Fábio Pacheco receiving his marching orders and Jefferson covering for his midfield partner’s blushes by scoring a brace. Samuel Lino halved the deficit on the cusp of injury time, but it was too little, too late.

Famalicão were also condemned to a second straight defeat as Portimonense, who had not won a single match since December when they knocked out Famalicão on penalties in the Taça de Portugal. Just seconds after Bruno Rodrigues’ header careened off the crossbar, Portimonense broke on the counter-attack as Henrique Jocú unleashed Carlinhos with a crisp lofted pass, who dished it off to Iván Angulo who created separation for himself and fired in a cross. Following several deflections, Wélinton Júnior tapped in a shot at the near post, but when the ball bounced off the post, he remained focused and headed home from close range whilst simultaneously picking himself up from the ground.

Whilst Gil will be without Brazilian defender Lucas Cunha and Georgian midfielder Giorgi Aburjania, Famalicão have suffered two hammer blows with the suspensions of Riccelli and Alexandre Penetra, who have formed an impressive trio in defense in recent weeks alongside Dylan Babutinska. Rui Pedro Silva has two options: start Diogo Queirós, who has not played for Famalicão since May 12 and who recently returned from an unsuccessful loan spell at Real Valladolid, alongside Babutinska and Alex Nascimento, who has not played since February 26 – the last time Famalicão won in the league. His other option is to abdicate from the back three that he has utilized over the past few months, which could prove risky against Samuel Lino and Fran Navarro.

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Vitória de Guimarães v Paços de Ferreira

After dipping his toes into the top-flight with Moreirense and Tondela, Pepa took charge of Paços de Ferreira on the fourth matchday of the 2019/20 season, the same club that he had played at in 2004/05 before moving to Olhanense the following year and retiring at 26 years old due to multiple knee injuries. Just as he had managed to do in Tondela, Pepa escaped a looming relegation battle and took the Beavers from last place to 13th in the league. The following year, Paços finished fifth, earning qualification to the Europa Conference League qualifiers where they would defeat Northern Irish side Larne before losing to Tottenham Hotspur. Pepa would not be there, however; he had taken the vacant managerial position at Vitória de Guimarães.

Vitória lost 0-1 to Porto in a match that was marred by fan violence and that saw Porto write their names into the history books with the longest unbeaten run in the history of the Primeira Liga: 57 matches. The last time they fell to defeat? October 30, 2020, a 3-2 loss to Pepa’s Paços de Ferreira: two of Paços’ goalscorers from that day – Bruno Costa and Stephen Eustáquio – now play for Porto.

Whilst Porto’s Iranian center forward Mehdi Taremi gave the visitors a first-half lead from the penalty spot, Vitória’s Colombian center forward Óscar Estupiñán was sent off in the 80th minute after deciding to compensate for a heavy first touch by charging in on João Mário with a two-footed, studs-up tackle. Estupiñán, whose contract expires in June and who has been linked with a summer move to Torino, has been directly responsible for 41.2% of his side’s goals this season with 13 goals and 3 assists.

Since February 12, Paços de Ferreira have lost just two matches – Porto and Sporting – and won the other five. They’ve scored two goals in five of their last seven matches and will be looking to pick up a crucial victory that would see them go level with Vitória in sixth place.

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Moreirense v Tondela

The return of club football following the international break saw four of the bottom five teams in the Primeira win – all but Moreirense. After losing 1-0 at home to local rivals Vitória, Moreirense fell to bottom of the league for the first time all season, with manager Ricardo Sá Pinto getting into a heated discussion with supporters whilst Serbian defender Lazar Rosić was moved to tears. They looked headed for a fifth consecutive defeat when Fábio Pacheco received his marching orders after the interval for tripping up Fran Navarro and preventing a goalscoring opportunity, but substitute Derik Lacerda had other plans.

The Brazilian forward chased down a wayward free kick and shielded the ball from Samuel Lino before turning and accelerating towards the byline, where his pass was converted by Jefferson for the opening goal. Moreirense doubled their lead 12 minutes later when Lacerda capitalized on a hospital pass from Lucas Cunha and trotted forward before dishing it off to Jefferson, who curled in a magnificent effort from 25 yards out to beat Žiga Frelih at his near post. Whilst Lino managed to halve the deficit in the 89th minute, it wasn’t enough to deprive Moreirense of their first victory since February 7.

After Moreirense opened the weekend with a surprise victory, the rest of the bottom five teams fell to defeat with Belenenses-SAD, Arouca and Vizela losing to Benfica, Boavista and Braga, respectively. Tondela, meanwhile, fell to a 3-1 defeat at home to Sporting, with a brace from Pablo Sarabia giving Rúben Amorim’s side a much-needed victory that sees them remain six points behind Porto in first place.

Moreirense are now two points above Belenenses-SAD and two points behind Tondela, who occupy the promotion/relegation play-off spot, as well as three points away from safety. The last time these two sides met, Rafael Martins opened the scoring early on, but Daniel Dos Anjos equalized at the hour-mark via the penalty spot. A cagey finale ensued, with the referee awarding nine minutes of extra time. In the eleventh minute of extra time, Salvador Agra swung in a free kick which fell into the path of Manu Hernando, who fired home from close range. I’m expecting another close-knit battle between two sides who are vying for their top-flight statuses.

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Marítimo v Boavista

Despite losing a litany of key players last summer such as Alberth Elis, Ricardo Mangas and Paulinho, Boavista look set to finish in a comfortable mid-table position. They are currently 11th in the league, level on points with Marítimo and 10 points clear of the drop, after defeating Arouca 1-0 at the weekend.

Having taken charge of the club in December, Petit has delivered a plethora of impressive results in his return to the Axadrezados, with his new-look 3-4-3 formation working like a charm. One of the key aspects of the shape has been Gustavo Sauer and Nathan Santos’ chemistry down the right flank. Sauer, a late bloomer at 28, has enjoyed a breakthrough campaign with 10 goals and 7 assists this season, often cutting inside from the right flank of attack, providing through balls for Croatian striker Petar Musa, and combining with Nathan in the final third. His impressive form has caught the eye of newly promoted Botafogo, who have signed the Brazilian winger on a three-year contract with the option of a fourth.

Sauer’s departure leaves a massive hole in terms of creativity and end product, whilst Nathan’s suspension will also deprive Petit of an outlet down the right flank. Whilst Marítimo have lost three of their last four matches, they have more than enough in their tank to bounce back with a win against Boavista.

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Belenenses-SAD v Vizela

Despite taking the lead within three minutes, Belenenses-SAD’s four-game unbeaten run came to an end at the Estádio da Luz as a hat-trick from Darwin Núñez gave Benfica a 3-1 victory. Vizela also saw their three-game unbeaten run come to a grinding halt at the weekend; despite playing with a man advantage for the second half, they were unable to cancel out Iuri Medeiros’ opening goal and fell to a 1-0 defeat to Braga.

Belenenses-SAD are without left back Diogo Calila due to suspension and will be taking on Vizela in a relegation six-pointer in Jamor. With five matches remaining, Vizela sit six points clear of the drop and four points above the relegation play-off spot, but they aren’t out of the woods yet. Belenenses-SAD, on the other hand, returned to the bottom spot after a week-long spell in 17th place following their loss to Benfica. Whilst Belenenses-SAD are looking to avoid relegation for the first time in the club’s four-year history, Vizela are seeking to avoid the fate of their 1984/85 side, when they finished bottom of the league in their only top-flight campaign prior to this season.

The previous fixture saw Vizela grab the lead early on via Kiko Bondoso before doubling it from the penalty spot via Cassiano, securing a 2-0 home win to open the new year against Belenenses-SAD. Since suffering back-to-back 4-1 losses at the start of February, Belenenses-SAD have had just one game with over two goals – last weekend’s 3-1 loss to Benfica. Vizela, on the other hand, have seen just two games with over two goals over their last six fixtures. I’m backing this one to be a low-scoring fixture between two sides that will likely be holding their cards close to their chest.

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Porto v Portimonense

Portimonense won their first match of 2022 at the weekend, as a goal from Wélinton Junior gave the Algarvians a much-needed 1-0 victory at home against Famalicão. It did not come without a cost, however; the goalscorer and center back Lucas Possignolo will be unavailable for their trip to the Estádio do Dragão due to suspension, whilst attacking midfielder Lucas Fernandes has become the latest player to leave Portimonense, joining Gustavo Sauer at newly promoted Botafogo.

Despite their poor second half of the season, Portimonense have all but secured their status in the top-flight for another year, currently nine points clear of the drop. Porto, on the other hand, are looking to extend their unbeaten streak to 58 league matches and continue their five-match winning streak in the Primeira. Sérgio Conceição’s side have kept four consecutive clean sheets in the league and will be looking to add another ahead of the second leg of their Taça de Portugal semifinal against Sporting on Thursday, having won the first leg 2-1.

Porto have won their last seven matches against Portimonense, who have failed to keep a clean sheet against the Dragões in their last 14 encounters. Nine of their last 10 meetings have seen over 2 goals scored, and I’m backing this one to be similar. Porto have not allowed their six-point lead over Sporting to slip, and with upcoming trips to Braga and Benfica, there is zero room for error – something that Conceição will surely be drilling into the minds of his players ahead of what should be a routine win.

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