Two teams in inconsistent form come up against each other, having only won three of their last ten combined games.

Sirius has had a rough time of late, winning only one of their last seven games, with five of those being defeats. This has dragged them further down the table into a relegation scrap they have little business being in considering their squad – while it is top-heavy, there is plenty of quality overall to mitigate for some defensive frailties. In reality, they are too open, having conceded 27 goals in 15 matches, and can’t compensate enough for this for all their attacking intent. They have tried their best, scoring in the last 12, and can always be counted on for high-scoring encounters, with their matches this season averaging 3.2 goals.

IFK Göteborg have been quietly impressive for much of the campaign, managing victories against most of the worse teams in the league as well as reigning champions Malmö. They sit in seventh place in the Allsvenskan table and can hope for a top-half finish, recovering well after flirting with relegation last year. 

After a three-game winning streak, they have now lost two of the last three, the only recent win coming over just Sirius. That game, played only two weeks back, ended 3-1 in an exciting encounter with two penalties and two late IFK goals. In general, they have struggled to control matches and contain opponents, conceding 1.45 xG per game, leading to open encounters where they need to chase games, only keeping one clean sheet in their last twelve.

Both teams are likely to go for the win here and have a rich history of goals in either direction.

A Stockholm derby where the home side is looking to carry on their rich vein of form and keep pushing for the title, while Brommapojkarna need to continue collecting points to stay out of relegation trouble.

Hammarby have, after being dazzling but inconsistent earlier in the season, started collecting wins. They have won four of their last five, making them the second-most in-form team in Allsvenskan, although they walked onto a land mine with the 3-2 defeat against GAIS last week. It was a tight affair, GAIS having many more shots (21-8) but only amassing a slightly higher xG figure (2.05 – 1.67), which includes a penalty. GAIS were worthy winners in the end, the first time Hammarby have failed to perform adequately in some time. Unfortunately for them, Mjällby did their duty and collected three points against Sirius, meaning the gap widened to four points at the top. They remain in second but have to get back to winning ways promptly to not see their rivals pull away further.

Brommapojkarna had a positive start to the season, winning three of the first six, playing with intensity and directness, but then fell off significantly and lost six on the trot. Now their fortunes have turned again, winning their last three without conceding a single goal, clearly working hard on the defensive side during the summer break. Top scorer Ezekiel Aladoh is back to full fitness after injury and fellow attacker Adam Jakobsen has found a rich vein of form, providing two goals and two assists in the last four matches. While they haven’t been overly dominant in their recent run, overperforming their xG by 2.67 in three games, being able to keep it tight defensively and getting goals at crucial moments have made for a winning formula. 

Despite Brommapojkarna’s resurgence, they are still prone to poor performances, especially defensively, against better opposition. Add to that Hammarby’s squad strength and their need for wins, I fully expect a win for the league’s strongest home team.