Kai Havertz led the line pretty well for Arsenal last time out in their 2-1 defeat to Manchester City, getting on the scoresheet as a reward for his effective pressing as he caught Donnarumma taking too long on the ball. That goal was one of four shots that Havertz had in the game, seeing two of these attempts find the target.

I think Havertz is the better option to lead the line for Arsenal in the closing weeks of the campaign. He’s better at Gyokeres when it comes to holding up the ball and bringing others into play, and he’s actually also surprisingly better than Gyokeres in the air - nearly converting an equaliser at the Etihad in the dying seconds of Arsenal’s game against Guardiola’s side.

Havertz has taken 12 shots across his five starts in the Premier League this season (2.65 per 90), seeing three of these efforts find the target (0.66 per 90). He maintained an average of 1.01 shots on target per 90 across his 21 starts in the top flight last season, scoring nine goals across these matches.

Newcastle will be without both Joelinton and Guimaraes for this clash, meaning that Tonali will likely be their most important player if Eddie Howe’s side are to cause an upset at the Emirates on Saturday evening. Tonali is just as effective as the Brazilian pair, and has won 39 fouls across his 27 starts in the Premier League the season (1.58 per 90).

Tonali averages just over 70 touches per 90 in the Premier League, a metric that increases in the absence of Guimaraes and Joelinton, showing just how reliant Newcastle are on his quality in central areas. Newcastle should look to win free kicks as often as possible in this clash, knowing that the Emirates will have a nervy atmosphere the longer the Magpies stay in the game.

Tonali will be up against Martin Zubimendi, who has committed 29 fouls across his 32 starts in the Premier League this term (0.94 per 90). He’s looked a little fatigued across recent weeks, so I think Tonali will get chances to dominate those central areas and draw challenges from Zubimendi as well as Declan Rice who has been looking more frustrated week on week for the Gunners. 

Arsenal drew five saves from Nick Pope when these sides met earlier in the season, and should end up testing former Arsenal keeper Aaron Ramsdale on quite a few occasions here as they look to move back to the top of the league after being unseated by Manchester City during the week with their 1-0 win over Burnley, which looked a bit nervy at times.

Arsenal have to win here, they’ve lost their last two Premier League games and are on the verge of handing the title over to Pep Guardiola for the third time in Arteta’s tenure. Aaron Ramsdale probably has a bit of a point to prove as well as Arsenal’s former goalkeeper, which may inspire him to stretch his top level a bit to keep Arsenal at bay. 

Ramsdale has been forced into making 25 saves across his 11 starts in the Premier League this term (2.24 per 90), but I think Arsenal can force a rise in this - as they did when the sides met earlier in the season - given the situation that Mikel Arteta’s side find themselves in as they continue to scrap for the Premier League title. 

The initial league meeting between these sides saw 19 match corners, with both sides contributing to that final tally (12-7). Arsenal ended up scoring from one of these corners as Gabriel headed home in the final stages to secure what looked to be a crucial three points for Arsenal at the time.

Newcastle are seeing 10.69 corners per game on the road in the Premier League this season, a rate that should rise against a side like Arsenal who are averaging 6.19 corners per game in front of their own fans in the Premier League this season. Newcastle should be able to top up a corner total which Arsenal get close to, with Eddie Howe’s side racking up a corner average of 5.81 corners per game when on the road this season. 

Martin Odegaard has been in and out of the Arsenal side this season due to injury and the presence of Eze in the squad. He has still been a creative outlet when he has played, registering five assists across just 14 starts (0.39 assist per 90).

Odegaard has created 34 chances across these appearances (2.62 per 90), which is a rate only really beaten by a freakish Bruno Fernandes, who has the advantage of his team being pretty much tailored to him and how he plays. 

This creative ability can really help Arsenal here against what is likely to be a stubborn defensive set up from Eddie Howe’s side, with Odegaard being good at finding those clever passes that break lines. Odegaard set up Gabriel for the winning goal when these sides met earlier in the season, and his chance creation record can give him a good chance of setting up another goal here.

Elanga is likely to start as Newcastle’s outlet here with his speed allowing for Eddie Howe’s side to get up the pitch if they are pushed back into their own half by an Arsenal side that are still capable of dominating games despite their recent poor form. This role pits Elanga up against Hincapie who will have to manage the winger’s speed and direct nature to ensure that Arsenal don’t get caught on the counter attack.

Elanga is averaging 1.55 fouls won per 90 in the Premier League this season. He’s at his best when he’s got space to run in behind, which Arsenal do tend to leave as they push their defensive line very high especially when they need the three points is the case here. 

Hincapie is a solid defender, but can be a bit rash at times and doesn’t really have the speed of Elanga so I can see the left back having to make a few tactical fouls to ensure that Newcastle can’t create those dangerous counter attacking situations. Hincapie has collected two yellow cards across his 18 starts in the Premier League, and the speed of Elanga on the break should put him in situations to collect his third caution of the campaign. 

Newcastle picked up two yellow cards from just eight fouls when these sides met earlier in the season. There is quite a bit of animosity between these two sides due to the various intense battles they’ve had across recent seasons, so I’d expect this to be quite an aggressive battle again given what is on the line for Arsenal in particular.

Jacob Ramsey is a player who has disappointed a little for Newcastle this term. He has battled with injuries at times, but even when fit has found it difficult to dislodge any of the usual midfield trio for Newcastle. He has got a chance here with Guimaraes and Joelinton expected to be absent, so I’d expect him to play with that extra bit of effort to try and lock down a more consistent spot in the Newcastle starting lineup.

Jacob Ramsey has picked up three yellow cards and a red card across his 12 starts in the Premier League this season from a foul count of 15 (1.18 per 90), reflecting Ramsey’s tenacity when going in for challenges which can rise to the fore in a game that should have plenty of strong tackles.