Portugal saw 27 goals across their six qualifying matches (4.5 per game), scoring 20 of these goals themselves (3.33 per game). They are capable of a much greater attacking output than they showed in their opener against DR Congo and I expect that talent to come to the fore here in a must win game.

Portugal saw 3+ goals in both of their warm-up games for the World Cup against Chile and Nigeria. They’ve also failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last three international matches which is a record that suggests that Uzbekistan could also contribute to the goal tally - as they did against Colombia last time out, losing 3-1.

I highly doubt that Portugal will be as ineffective in forward areas as they were in the opening game, but their defensive vulnerability remains something that can be exploited by Uzbekistan who generated an xG of 1.16 from eight shots on their opener.

Portugal racked up five corners against DR Congo in their opening game and I expect them to end this clash with a healthy corner count, slightly exceeding the count they set in the first game. 

During qualifying, Portugal averaged 6.84 corners per game - managing 6+ corners in 67% of their matches. They had at least five corners in 83% of these games, so Roberto Martinez’s side have regularly ended up with a decent corner count over the last year and should be able to produce that again here.

Uzbekistan conceded four corners in their opener against Colombia and are likely to try and keep things tight at the back in this contest, knowing that a point would keep their qualifying hopes alive ahead of a more winnable clash against DR Congo. 

Diogo Costa was tested once in Portugal's opener against DR Congo and I think he can be forced into making at least one save against an Uzbekistan side who generated an xG of 1.16 from just eight shots against Colombia last time out, getting on the scoresheet and forcing a save from Camillo Vargas.

This World Cup has been pretty successful for the underdogs so far, and the root of their success has come from not being afraid to get out of a stubborn shape and take risks in transition. 

There is always space for them to attack against the high lines of nations like Portugal, and they’ll also be aware of the fragility of the European side following their disappointing display in the first game.

Diogo Costa only kept two clean sheets across his seven qualifying matches for Portugal and was called into action nine times (1.50 per 90). 

Bruno Fernandes was one of Portugal’s better players in their 1-1 draw with DR Congo last time out, managing two shots - both of which came from outside of the box.

Portugal were successfully blunted by DR Congo, restricted to just seven shots in the contest but I expect that tally to rise significantly here given that Portugal need all three points to avoid a tense final day clash with Colombia who won their opening game. 

Fernandes scored three goals during qualifying across five starts overall, managing six shots on target across these games (1.37 per 90). He also averaged 2.50 shots per 90 across his 35 starts for Manchester United during the 25/26 campaign and should be central to any success that Portugal get here.

Mendes was fouled three times in Portugal’s opening game against DR Congo, accounting for 30% of the total fouls that Portugal drew from the African side. It’s clear that Mendes is a clear outlet for this Portugal side, he got forward regularly in the game - having more touches in the opposition box than any other Portuguese player (6). 

Mendes should continue to fly forward again in this game and now lines up against an Uzbekistan side who committed 14 fouls in their opening match against Colombia, with half of those fouls coming down Mendes’ side of the pitch. Both Karimov and Khusanov committed three fouls each which would indicate that Mendes is going to win a similar volume of fouls, if not more, than he did in the opening game.

Mendes won eight fouls during qualifying across just four starts for Portugal (2.21 per 90), as well as averaging 1.80 fouls won per 90 across his 13 starts for PSG during the 25/26 campaign. 

Cristiano Ronaldo must be really frustrated right now. 

This has been a World Cup where all the big names have delivered so far, apart from the Al Nassr star who continues to draw criticism from Portugal and wider as to his role as the main striker in this side.

Ronaldo won’t really care about the critics, he’s been dealing with that for a while, but it will irk him that he hasn’t yet managed to make his mark on this World Cup and was limited to three wayward efforts in the opening game against DR Congo. 

This Portugal team is built around Ronaldo. Whatever you think of this strategy from Roberto Martinez, it still platforms the striker as the main vocal point and everything is structured to provide him with the service to score goals.

Ronaldo averaged a ridiculous 7.44 shots per 90 for Portugal during qualifying, seeing 12 of his 31 attempts find the target (2.88 per 90). I can see him taking on ridiculous efforts from distance to try and get on the scoresheet which should lead to another high shot count from the forward. 

Bruno Fernandes wasn’t quite at his creative best against DR Congo, creating just one chance and taking three corners, but he’s still the main man in this Portugal side for me and can make something happen with a moment of brilliance. 

Fernandes enjoyed a really strong season for Manchester United, setting up 21 goals from 136 chances created (3.99 per 90). That chances created metric is seriously impressive and clears every other player in the division by some distance.

He set up a similar level of chances for his national team during qualifying, creating 21 chances across just five starts (4.80 per 90). These numbers are ridiculously high and show that Fernandes could be the key to unlock what is likely to be a stubborn and organised Uzbekistan outfit.

Nuno Mendes got forward regularly for Portugal in their opening game against DR Congo, notably having more touches in the opposition box than any other Portuguese player (6). 

This is a nice price for the best attacking fullback in the world to have a single shot on target here. He will push forward as often as he did in the opening game and has a solid shot on target record over the last year for club and country for a fullback. 

Mendes took five shots across his four starts in qualifying for Portugal (1.38 per 90) and netted four goals across just 13 starts for PSG during the 25/26 Ligue 1 campaign. He averaged 2.16 shots per 90 and 1.08 shots on target per 90 across these appearances and could be a decent outside option for Portugal to offer an attacking threat.

Khusanov was booked in Uzbekistan’s opener against Colombia, committing three fouls. I think he’ll have his hands full again in this encounter with a duo of Pedro Neto and Nuno Mendes operating down his side of the pitch.

The Portuguese pair were fouled four times combined in their opener against DR Congo, with Nuno Mendes winning the majority of these fouls (3). 

Khusanov is in quite a unique position as he’s clearly the most talented player in this Uzbekistan side, but is having to adapt to a side that don’t have a lot of the ball and are routinely underdogs - compared to often being on the dominant side of proceedings when playing for Manchester City.