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⚡ Back our Euro 2024 Group B Outright on Paddy Power @ 6.50
🇮🇹 Italy to win Group B
🇦🇱 Albania to finish bottom of Group B
🇪🇸 Lamine Yamal to score 1+ goal in Group B
Albania, Croatia, Italy and Spain make up Group B of Euro 2024, with one of the latter two winning the competition on three of the last four occasions.
Our Euro 2024 predictions will be well worth a follow, while we’ve already posted our expert Euro 2024 golden boot tips, tips on Euro 2024 most assists, and Euro 2024 underdog winner predictions. Supplemented by our list of Euro 2024 free bets and best bet builder sites, along with the latest odds boosts, further showcasing value on the market.
Check out our deep dives on Group A, Group C, Group D, Group E and Group F to make sure you’re up to scratch ahead of the big kick-off.
Italy and Spain are fancied by the bookmakers to progress, even though Croatia have shown over a long period of time that they are greater than the sum of their parts – with Albania being the wildcard in this Euros’ group of death.
📊 Group B Odds
🇪🇸 Spain
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Group Winner Odds: 1.83
Although this isn’t the same vintage as the 2012 side, this fine wine of a team is still stacked with talent. Recent friendly showings against Brazil and Colombia ended in a draw and a defeat, but they qualified comfortably with just one loss and conceded just five times in eight games.
They’ll be missing star midfielder Gavi, but have one of the most promising young talents in world football in Lamine Yamal. The much-maligned Alvaro Morata has actually been in respectable goalscoring form this season with 14 goals for Atletico Madrid, but hasn’t scored in his last five for his country.
There are similar issues for other leading attackers in the team, Joselu and Ferran Torres, and there is a case to be made for Spain struggling to score in the group. This played out in the last Euros, where they finished second in their group, after drawing 0-0 and 1-1 with Sweden and Poland respectively. Ultimately, going on to lose out to Italy in the semi-finals.
How they performed in qualifying
🇮🇹 Italy
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Group Winner Odds: 2.70
Derided with little chance by most before the last Euros (although our Group B expert tipped them at 16/1), Italy broke English hearts in 2020 and have a tournament mentality that always makes them dangerous.
Like Spain, they have issues upfront, with Domenico Berardi ruled out of the tournament and Federico Chiesa only recently returning to full fitness.
The Azzurri sailed through their group with a 100% record last time out and topped it in 2016. In 2012, they finished second in the group to Spain but held them to a 1-1 draw. Concerns will also be raised with their rather mediocre showing in qualification, losing twice and narrowly scraping through in second place in their group ahead of Ukraine.
How they performed in qualifying
🇭🇷 Croatia
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Group Winner Odds: 5.0
The Croats come into the tournament after qualifying in second behind Turkey. Written off as an ageing side that would struggle at the Qatar World Cup, they navigated their way to the semi-finals with two consecutive penalty shoot-out victories, against Japan and Brazil, before succumbing to eventual winners Argentina.
The core of the team is now two years older and they’ll have to beat the odds once again to perform anywhere near that level. A 38-year-old Luka Modric is still capable of brilliance but faces an uphill task to play this many games in quick succession. Marcelo Brozovic is now plying his trade in Saudi Arabia, so questions marks will remain over the level of football he has been playing coming into the tournament.
Their lack of goals in recent games is a concern, as well as losing to Wales and Turkey back in October. Raising their game to match the level of Spain and Italy is going to be a tall order.
How they performed in qualifying
🇦🇱 Albania
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Group Winner Odds: 31.0
Albania reached Euro 2016 and can rightly look back on their performances with pride. They narrowly lost 1-0 to Switzerland and it took two late goals from the hosts, France, to finally sink them. A maiden victory was also achieved against Romania.
They will hope for more of the same this time around and their opponents could underestimate the danger they pose. They finished top of their qualifying group ahead of Czech Republic and Poland, conceding just four goals along the way. The concern will be they scored just 12 in their eight games to do so.
Hopes will be pinned on Fulham forward Armando Broja, but with a list of injury problems, he has struggled for form and fitness and has scored just one goal this season. Ernest Muci will be one to watch in midfield, after a big-money move to Turkey in the last transfer window. The Italian squad will certainly be familiar with many of the Albanian players, with nine of them plying their trade in Serie A.
Sylvinho, formerly of Arsenal, Barcelona, and Man City is their head coach, with added expertise from Pablo Zabaleta, his assistant.
How they performed in qualifying
👑 Who will win Group B?
Although on paper, Spain are the stronger side. We wouldn’t want to back them to top this group at the prices. We’re anticipating low-scoring games in this group and a cagey start. With that, the likelihood of Italy scrapping a few 1-0 wins against both Spain and Croatia, or the Spanish dropping points is well within the realms of possibility.
In Luciano Spalletti Italy have an inspirational manager at the peak of his powers, having led Napoli to a historic Serie A title last season. Coming into the tournament through the play-offs and, therefore, a bit under the radar, even as reigning champions, will suit them as it did in 2021. Spain are more reliant on a group of young players who have had very long seasons at club level and with Gavi a key absentee, the value bet in the Group Winner market is the Azzurri.
At the last two World Cups and the last Euros, Spain have only managed to win one group stage match per competition. Sweden topped their group at the last Euros and Japan finished above them at the summit of Group E in the World Cup. The 2018 World Cup was the last time they topped a group at a major tournament when they accumulated five points.
Croatia are more than capable of upsetting them, and their previous record along with an overreliance on youth is enough to suggest that the 2.70 on Italy is a far more attractive option in the Group Winner market than backing Konrad De La Fuente’s men at 1.83.
Back Italy to win Group B at odds of 2.70 ⬇️
⬆️ Who will qualify from Group B?
Given that the expanded format of the Euros allows some of the best third-placed teams to go through, we could have three qualifiers come through this group. When you consider how close some of the games might be and the likelihood of a few draws, three teams progressing feels likely. It would be a huge shock if either Italy or Spain fail to progress, but Croatia could be vulnerable to an Albania side with nothing to lose.
Given that the Croats lost to Wales and Turkey in October and beat Armenia by just a solitary goal both home and away, it’s not a wild suggestion to give Albania a chance against them if they can keep things tight. It’s still a huge ask though and even if Albania were to get a win like they did in 2016, it might still not be enough to get through to the knockouts.
There are plenty of reasons to believe that the Albanians will not be just making up the numbers, having conceded just four in qualifying to finish above Poland and the Czech Republic – nations that the market is showing far more respect to in their qualification odds. Croatia being priced at 1.30 compared to Albania at 4.20 to qualify really underestimates Sylvinho’s men’s potential, and with the third-place rule active they are certainly the value bet to progress from this group.
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* All odds displayed correctly at the time of publishing *
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