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⚡ Back our Euro 2024 Group C Outright on Paddy Power @ 4.0
🏴 England to win Group C
🏴 England to score 4+ goals in Group C
🇩🇰 Rasmus Hojlund to score 2+ goals in Group C
The tournament favourites are in Group C, and it is a country that hasn’t won a major tournament in almost 60 years – England.
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Despite the lack of ultimate success, England are definitely deserving of favouritism in Group C. The Three Lions are the top seeds, they are the highest ranked in the FIFA rankings in the group, and they reached the final the last time the European Championships were held.
That is not to say that the group is an easy one for England though. Trouble lurks around every corner, first of all in the shape of Denmark. The 1992 European Champions will hark back to those memories, and qualifying ahead of England in the group stage of that event on their way to the trophy.
Famously, Denmark were only in that tournament because of the difficulties in Yugoslavia, who had initially qualified. The remaining nations in this are both former Yugoslavian republics, Serbia and Slovenia. Both are playing their first European Championships since 2000, and both qualified as runners-up in their qualification groups.
📊 Group C odds
🏴 England
📈
Group Winner Odds: 1.33
England are heavy favourites to win Group C, which contributes to their favouritism for the whole tournament. The bookmakers cannot see England repeating their embarrassing campaigns of 1992 and 2000 when they failed to get out of the group.
The doubts around the Three Lions ahead of Euro 2024 mainly come in their credentials in the knockout stages. Germany in the last 16 of Euro 2020 is the nation’s only knockout victory under Gareth Southgate against a country that could be classed as a major footballing nation.
As they did in the World Cup, dispatching Iran and Wales with ease, they could make the group phase look straightforward due to their quality and depth in attacking areas.
How they performed in qualifying
🇩🇰 Denmark
📈
Group Winner Odds: 6.0
Denmark look like a pretty safe bet to qualify from Group C. They have a team full of youthful dynamism, still being guided by the wisdom and experience of Christian Eriksen. Manchester United’s Rasmus Hojlund has started his international career with a strong strike rate, and he provides a threat that the other nations in the group cannot provide.
The 2022 World Cup performance, taking just one point and crashing out in the groups, has tarnished the Danes’ Euro 2020 exploits somewhat, in terms of the stage of the competition that they are expected to reach this time around. However, they are certainly capable of turning it on in a small sample and opening up against group outsiders Slovenia gives them a chance to get a foothold in the group, as they failed to do in Qatar, and to begin the competition with a statement to breathe some belief into the group.
How they performed in qualifying
🇸🇮 Slovenia
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Group Winner Odds: 17.0
Slovenia lack top-level experience in their squad. Their captain, goalkeeper Jan Oblak, is by far and away their most experienced, and best, player. The majority of the squad are based in the mid-ranking leagues of Europe, with a surprising enclave at Panathinaikos, who employ three of the Slovenian squad.
In their first major tournament since the 2010 World Cup in South Africa, progression looks a tall order. They may benefit from facing England in matchday three depending on the group standings at that stage, though in the potential scenario that Southgate rotates his squad with top spot sealed the Three Lions would still be heavily odds-on to beat Slovenia.
Conceding less than a goal per game and scoring two to the same measure in qualifying shows that they are capable, and it will be interesting to see how they match up against Denmark, having taken points off of them on their way to Euro 2024.
How they performed in qualifying
🇷🇸 Serbia
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Group Winner Odds: 7.0
On pure quality throughout the squad, Serbia should be challenging Denmark for second place. The Al Hilal pair of Sergej Milinkovic-Savic and Aleksandar Mitrovic, fresh from plundering goals galore in the Saudi Pro League, should be in the prime of their careers, but there isn’t a great deal standing out behind them.
Playing in a less demanding league like the Saudi Pro League and moving away from Serie A and the Premier League, for Milinkovic-Savic and Mitrovic, could mean they have more to offer physically at this stage of the calendar. Qualifying was far from convincing but with the third-place route to the last 16 in place they should fancy their chances. Getting a win on the board against Slovenia on matchday two would put them in a commanding position regardless of the outcome of their opening encounter with the English.
How they performed in qualifying
👑 Who will win Group C?
It is a justifiable short-odds position when one assesses the quality of players for Gareth Southgate to choose from. Three of the top four players in the betting for the 2024 Ballon D’Or are in Southgate’s squad, Jude Bellingham, Harry Kane, and Phil Foden. Never before has an England manager had such riches in attack.
Excitement about England is slightly tempered by the realisation that the defence isn’t up to the same standard. John Stones has had an injury-impacted season, though he looks to be fit for the finals, and Harry Maguire, though he has rarely let England down, has not been as dependable at club level.
Potentially England’s biggest problem is how to fill the left back slot in their preferred 4-3-3 system. Luke Shaw would be the first choice, but the Manchester United player hasn’t played since 18th February. Usual understudy Ben Chilwell is not in the squad due to fitness issues, leaving Southgate looking for the best square peg to fit the round hole with Shaw’s availability still in question.
This shouldn’t bring a problem for them in qualifying out of Group C, but it could be an issue when discussing England’s chances for the overall crown.
Denmark are seen as the clear second favourites and most likely runners-up in the group. Experience of a semi-final run the last time that these championships were held probably stands the Danes in good stead in this group, alongside the fact that Denmark sit 21st in the FIFA rankings and also qualified top of their group, albeit on the same points as Slovenia.
Serbia and Slovenia are the nations that the bookmakers have down to battle it out for a possible third qualification spot.
Serbia & Montenegro head-to-heads included.
Using the head-to-head records between the nations it is clear that Denmark and England will be pleased to have seen the other two nations joining them in Group C. Denmark, especially, have a particularly strong record against Serbia and Slovenia. England have also dominated Slovenia in recent years.
The group winners could be decided by the outcome of the England v Denmark clash, scheduled for the second Group C matchday on 20th June.
The head-to-head record between Serbia and Slovenia is interesting and suggests that the northern cousin of the former Yugoslavian republics (Slovenia) may be of slight value to potentially pinch a potential third qualification spot, or at least to avoid finishing bottom of the group.
England have finished 2nd (2004), 1st (2012), 2nd (2016), and 1st (2020) in their last four European Championship groups, they topped their group in the 2022 World Cup as well. It seems tremendously unlikely that England will finish outside of the top two places, but some bookmakers have them perilously short in the odds to finish top.
While, based on the analysis, England would be the selection to finish top, they should have too much attacking ability with the likes of Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham, Phil Foden, Bukayo Saka, and others in reserve, there is no value in the price. That said, you may want to combine a bet on England to top Group C in a group stage accumulator and, therefore, you can add it into your slip below.
Back England to win Group C at odds of 1.33 ⬇️
⬆️ Who will qualify from Group C?
There is good experience in the Danish defence with Barcelona’s Andreas Christensen, Crystal Palace’s Joachim Andersen and Leicester City’s Jannik Vestergaard being flanked by Joachim Maehle and Victor Kristiansen. There is also the leadership of Simon Kjaer, probably playing his final major tournament, and Kasper Schmeichel to rely upon.
However, there is the shadow of the disappointing World Cup campaign in 2022 to deal with. The Danes lost to a limited Australia when qualification was on the line, though they had already drawn with Tunisia in the group stage as well, therefore ending up with only one point from a fairly kind group.
There will be a lot of concentration on who will emerge victorious in the Serbia v Slovenia derby on matchday two, one of those nations simply must win that match to put themselves in a strong position before their final group game. It is easy to see that match ending in a draw though, which would potentially put both former Yugoslav nations on the back foot.
The big hope for Slovenian football is RB Leipzig’s Benjamin Sesko. The 20-year-old is already joint-seventh on the Slovenian all-time goalscorer charts and is destined to be the player that Slovenia build their team around for the next decade. He is strong, powerful, and a good finisher with both feet and head, and he is gaining more experience in a top league and UEFA competition.
On the balance of the squad and head-to-head analysis, Denmark have to be fancied to qualify with England. It is then down to the complex nature of third-placed qualification to decide if either of the other nations achieve the required record. Slovenia could be a touch of value, but one has to be concerned about the possibility of a draw in the match between Serbia and Slovenia which could put qualification for both in danger.
Back Denmark to qualify from Group C at odds of 1.30 ⬇️
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* All odds displayed correctly at the time of publishing *
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