While the Texans are coming off back-to-back losses, I like the matchup here against the Cowboys much more. While they didn’t look great against the Lions and Jets, those are two strong defences and were able to give Stroud plenty of problems.

Last week they couldn’t get anything going on the ground against the Lions, but you’re going from a top-three run defence to a bottom-three run defence, so I’m not going to look super deep into that.

The other good news is Cooper Rush is likely going to struggle to move the ball down the field. DeMeco Ryans is known as a defensive coach, and having a backup QB who only managed to throw for 45 yards last week sounds like a recipe for disaster. The Eagles and Texans are fairly comparable defences, and I have a hard time seeing the Cowboys miraculously figuring it out with just one week of a backup quarterback.

This seems like the perfect time to buy low on a team in a much better matchup where the Texans can control the clock and play their style of football much more comfortably.

Joe Mixon is my favourite target in tonight’s game. While the Texans have dealt with plenty of different injuries both in the wide receiver and running back rooms, they are finally trending in the right direction. Joe Mixon missed a couple of weeks earlier in the season, but he has come back absolutely on fire.

He’s one of the highest volume backs in the league, posting 24+ rush attempts in 5/7 games this season. The two misses came in an injury game against the Bears and 13 carries against the Patriots which was his first game back, and he still went for 102 yards anyway. This is a guy that’s used to handling heavy volume, and he should definitely get that chance today.

He now faces the Dallas Cowboys, who are dead LAST (32nd) in the league in adjusted rushing yards allowed per game. They are giving up 152 yards at nearly 5 yards per carry and should continue to struggle against Mixon.

They also are last in defensive EPA vs the run and I just don’t have any confidence they can keep the Texans offense from running all over them.

This is definitely the biggest long shot of the bunch, but someone has to catch passes tonight! If you have been reading these articles this season, then you would know we have targeted Jake Ferguson frequently, with or without Dak Prescott at quarterback.

The premise is quite simple, this team is devoid of talent and Jake Ferguson easily jumps out and a reliable short-intermediate yardage target for the quarterback. CeeDee Lamb is the all-star in the room, but the name value attracts plenty of attention, seeing double coverage at a top-5 rate all season. Teams are going to continue to lock into CeeDee Lamb and make someone else beat them.

That someone else always turns out to be Ferguson, who is a dependable option over the middle. In his first game with Cooper Rush at quarterback, he posted 4 catches on 5 targets for 24 yards. While the yardage total will probably never be super high, considering defences won’t respect Rush’s ability to throw the ball down the field, he should be an absolute target machine.

The Cowboys are 7-point underdogs and are projected to be throwing all game, with defences focused on slowing down Ceedee Lamb I’m expecting a good showing from the tight end.