📊 What the Data Tells Us:

Winning the Premier League is the ultimate goal for any English football club. While talent, management, and a bit of luck are essential, data analytics can highlight strategies that significantly enhance a team’s chances of success. Using comprehensive data from the past three Premier League seasons, we can examine the key statistics that have propelled the recent champions, Liverpool and Manchester City, to success.

⚽ Dominating Possession and Passing

Ball dominance is a hallmark of recent champions, with title-winning teams averaging 62.5% possession compared to just 56.9% for teams that finished in second to fourth place. Superior ball retention enables champions to control match tempo, limit their opponents' chances, and create high-quality scoring opportunities.

Passing accuracy further highlights this dominance. Champions completed approximately 610 passes per match with an accuracy rate of 88.9%, significantly outperforming their top 4 rivals, who completed around 507 passes per game at an 86.4% accuracy rate. Champions also averaged 66.7 passes into the final per match with an accuracy of 79.6%, compared to 58 passes at 75.4% accuracy for the remaining top 4 teams. Additionally, champions averaged 6.6 passes per possession, compared to just 5.3, reinforcing their ability to sustain controlled possession and systematically break down opposition defences.

⚡ Efficiency in Attack

Champions don't just create chances, they consistently convert them. On average, Premier League winners scored 2.42 goals per match, compared to 1.96 by their top 4 rivals. Expected goals (xG), a statistic that predicts scoring probability based on chance quality, highlight the champions' efficiency.

Champions outperformed their xG by 0.18 goals per match, highlighting their clinical edge in front of goal, while the remaining top four teams slightly underperformed by 0.01 goals, meaning their finishing was effectively in line with their xG. Shot accuracy is another telling indicator, champions averaged 16 shots per game, with 6.3 on target (39% accuracy), while their top 4 rivals managed just 14.8 shots with 5.6 on target (37.8%accuracy).

🛑 Defensive Solidity

Defensive strength is just as important as attacking efficiency. Champions conceded 0.95 goals per game on average, compared to 1.08 for their top 4 rivals. Champions faced 7.9 shots against per match, compared to 9.5, indicating a sharp decrease in the number of chances the champions give their opponents, a key factor in them conceding fewer goals.

Despite this, champions averaged fewer defensive actions in the game due to their possession domination, having 33.3 interceptions per match compared to 36.4 for the remaining top 4 teams. They also had fewer clearances (10.7 vs. 12.9) and ball recoveries (76.3 vs. 79.3), underlining differences in approach; champions tended to regain possession earlier and avoid last-ditch defending.

🔄 Control Of Transition Moments

Due to their possession dominance, champions averaged slightly fewer counterattacks (1.7 per game) than the remaining top 4 sides (2). This suggests that while champions dominate the ball, they still actively exploit counterattacking opportunities when they arise.

In defensive transitions, champions excelled at preventing opponent counterattacks by achieving 17 recoveries per match in the final third, compared to 16.9 for fellow top 4 clubs. This demonstrates their ability to win the ball back high up the pitch and disrupt the opposition early.

🚩 Set-Piece Proficiency

Set pieces often prove decisive in tight matches, and penalty statistics offer the clearest distinction. Champions earn nearly twice as many penalties per match as their top 4 rivals (0.25 vs. 0.14), and they convert them at a higher rate (92.9% vs. 87.3%).

In contrast, the difference in other set-piece opportunities is minimal, champions average 4.6 set-piece shots per game, compared to 4.4. This suggests that penalties, rather than overall set-piece volume, are the key differentiator in this phase of play.

💪 Physical and Tactical Discipline

Physical battles and tactical discipline are essential. Champions won offensive duels at a higher rate (42.0%) compared to the remaining top 4 sides (39.9%). Defensive duel win rates were marginally better, at 61% to 60.3%. Similarly, the aerial duel win rate was 48% to 46.6%, showing that although champions are more conservative in making duels, they are more effective when they do. Sliding tackles tell a different story, with the remaining top 4 clubs averaging 2.7 per game compared to just 2 for the champions.

This suggests that champions rely less on last-ditch or risky challenges, likely due to better positioning and defensive organisation. Following on from this point, champions also maintained better discipline, committing fewer fouls (9.3 per match vs. 10.4), receiving fewer yellow cards (1.4 vs. 1.9), and receiving fewer red cards (0.04 vs. 0.06).

⏱️ 2024-2025 Season

Liverpool’s 2024–25 title-winning campaign was built on a blend of attacking firepower and control in possession. They averaged 2.3 goals per game while conceding just 1.1, combining clinical finishing with defensive resilience. Their shot selection was efficient, with 16.6 attempts per match and a shot accuracy of 38.7%. 

Compared to runners-up Arsenal, Liverpool stood out in several key areas. Arsenal conceded slightly fewer goals per match, averaging 0.9, but Liverpool’s greater possession share at 62.5% and higher passing accuracy of 88.9% allowed them to dominate territory and sustain pressure. They also produced more going forward, taking more shots per game (16.6 to 14.3), generating higher expected goals (2.2 compared to 1.9), and completing more progressive passes, averaging 58 to Arsenal’s 48.

Arsenal held the stronger defensive record, conceding fewer goals per game at 0.9 compared to Liverpool’s 1.1. They also committed fewer fouls on average (10.3 to 11.3) and edged Liverpool in defensive duel success, winning 61% to 59.1%. However, Liverpool’s attacking quality proved decisive. Arsenal received six red cards throughout the season, compared to just three for Liverpool, leaving them vulnerable in key moments. Ultimately, Liverpool’s ability to consistently create and convert chances, coupled with their superior possession and territorial control, gave them the edge. Throughout the season, their attacking firepower outweighed Arsenal’s defensive strengths, propelling them to the title.

🗒️ Summary

Winning the Premier League demands strength across all phases of play with champions typically controlling possession through accurate passing while also converting chances efficiently in the final third. This attacking quality is matched by a strong defensive structure, effective management of transitions, and a consistent threat from set-piece situations. Physical presence and tactical discipline, combined with fewer disciplinary issues, further set the title-winning teams apart. It’s this ability to impose control in every area of the pitch that turns contenders into champions

* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.