AC Milan v Inter

On Wednesday, the grand stage, The San Siro, is set to unveil the fourth Derby Della Madonnina of the season.

The previous three have left Inzaghi scratching his head trying to work out why, despite all other evidence suggesting his side should coast comfortably to a win, Milan have gotten the better of The Nerazzurri on two occasions of the previous three occasions, with the remainder, a 1-1 stalemate.

Once again, Inter enter this clash in superb form, having recorded 6 wins and a draw across their last 7, whilst their city rivals have struggled, falling to defeat in 4 of their last 6 in the league.

⭐ AC Milan v Inter Best Bet

Given the attacking profiles of both sides and the numbers both teams have put up this season, backing a goal to be scored in both halves looks like excellent value.

Inter’s Serie A fixtures have averaged 3.2 goals per game, while Milan’s come in at 2.7, rising to 3.33 when considering their last 6.

As such, it should come as no surprise that this selection has come home in each of Milan’s last seven games and six of Inter’s most recent seven.

Recent history in the Derby della Madonnina further strengthens the case, with all of the last five meetings seeing goals in both halves. Notably, four of those followed a familiar pattern: Inter striking early before fading slightly, allowing their opponents back into the game with a goal or more after the break.

This trend mirrors Inter’s season-long issue with maintaining intensity over 90 minutes, particularly when facing stronger sides. That dynamic sets up this selection nicely, with a high probability of action at both ends of the pitch across both halves.

🟢 AC Milan v Inter #WhatOddsPaddy Tip

Inter enter the derby in dominant form, unbeaten in eight and 20 points clear of Milan in the league, with just five defeats in 44 matches this season. Milan, by contrast, have managed only three wins in their last nine. 

Both Inter and AC Milan tend to deliver goals when they play, with both sides’ matches producing 3 or more goals in 18 out of 30 league clashes to date.

Each of the last five showings of this fixture has seen both teams score at least once, providing additional encouragement that this is a likely outcome.

The fiery nature of the Derby della Madonnina adds to the appeal of this game and also presents value in the cards market.

The last six meetings between these sides have produced the following card figures: 2, 5, 5, 8, 4, 6, implying the referee is likely to be busy during this clash. 

Michael Fabbri, who will take charge of this game, has averaged 4.35 cards per game, notably showing 10 in his last match in charge of Milan. 

The final component of this selection is backing both sides to win at least 3 corners during the 90, which should be a pretty safe bet given Inter and Milan have averaged 6.20 and 5.93 in the league, ranking 1st and 2nd respectively.

👕 AC Milan v Inter Predicted XI

🔍 AC Milan v Inter Players to Watch

🔵 Federico Dimarco

This price looks generous, given Dimarco’s consistent output and the role he plays in Inter’s attacking setup. Amongst expected starters, only Thuram can better Dimarco’s rate of 2.37 shots per 90 minutes across all competitions.

He’s hit the two-shot mark in 12 of his last 15 appearances when playing at least 45 minutes, a run that includes games against Milan (twice), Juventus, Napoli, Atalanta, and Lazio

Milan, meanwhile, have conceded an average of 11.1 shots per game in Serie A, implying Inter should enjoy their fair share of attacking prospects in the derby.

🔴 Tijjani Reinders

While his season average of 0.93 shots on target per 90 is already solid, it becomes even more impressive when you consider he’s spent the vast majority of the campaign operating as a defensive midfielder.

On Wednesday, however, he’s set to feature as an attacking midfielder,  a positional shift that significantly boosts his goal threat. Even from less advanced areas, he’s managed at least one shot on target in 17 of his last 25 outings.

Inter’s backline, though still strong on paper, hasn’t been quite as watertight as in previous campaigns. They’ve allowed an average of 3.4 shots on target per match this season,  a figure that jumps to 4.1 across their last seven fixtures.

📂 AC Milan v Inter Cheat Sheet

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💻 AC Milan v Inter Form and Tactics

Inzaghi has been unfaltering in his use of Inter’s tried-and-tested 3-5-2 system, which is unlikely to change ahead of this clash. 

While the formation remains the same, there’s been a subtle shift in attacking dynamics this season with Thuram stepping up as the primary goal threat, covering for the injured Lautaro Martinez’s downturn in form.

He demands that his players are incredibly gifted both technically and in their reading of the game, requiring them to rotate frequently from position to position and adapt seamlessly to the game state,

This is in contrast to Conceicao, who typically instructs his men to adopt a more rigid style of positioning, prioritising a high defensive line and strict man-to-man marking off the ball.

In possession, Milan will look to hit Inter on the counter-attack, using their defensive shape as a platform for quick vertical transitions driven by their central midfielders.

Inzaghi has, as of yet, been unable to effectively alter his sides’ tactics to deal with this threat and might look to switch things up a bit, given Inter’s recent struggles against their city rivals.

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🏁 AC Milan v Inter Ref Watch

• Referee: Michael Fabbri

  Fouls pg	Yellows pg	Reds pg
  24.64	4.21	0.14

  (Per game data from Fabbri's 14 Serie A matches this season)

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.