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Inter v AC Milan

In Sunday’s huge Serie A clash Inter and AC Milan meet for the first Milan derby of the season. Neither side has gotten off to the start they likely envisioned ahead of the year but Inter have surely been the better of the two.

Milan have picked up just five points from their first four games and have broadly come across as tactically imbalanced and frantic. Most recently they were torn apart in the Champions League by Liverpool who showed no mercy in their dominant 3-1 win.

Inter sit third in Serie A after four games, managing two wins and two draws. They’ve looked solid but not quite at the level we’ve grown to expect of them and there could still be some fitness concerns, particularly over those who endured long Euros/ Copa America campaigns over the summer.

Although Inter are well-merited favourites at 1.62, this game will likely be closer than most would expect and a thrashing is unlikely. Paulo Fonseca’s back is truly against the wall here and his squad and he will know he may well need something from this derby to avoid the sack.

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Inter v AC Milan Best Bets

➡️ Inter to commit 15+ fouls @ 2.0 with Betfair

➡️ Theo Hernandez to be fouled 2+ times @ 1.91 with Betfair

➡️ Nicolo Barella to have 2+ shots @ 2.25 with Betfair

There’s a range of value available ahead of the Milan Derby with a large portion coming in the fouls market given the heated nature of this clash. 

In the last five Milan Derby’s, there’s been an insane average of 32.6 fouls per game with each side contributing fairly evenly to that figure. You can back Inter to commit 15+ fouls at 2.0 which seems pretty good value given that the selection has won in each of the last five clashes between the Milan clubs.

Alternatively, Theo Hernandez to draw 2+ fouls at 1.91 is also good a shout with the Frenchman having accomplished this in each of his three starts this season. Most recently he won three against Liverpool which represented 25% of the fouls Arne Slot’s men committed.

Finally, there could be value in Nicolo Barella to take 2+ shots at 2.25. The replacement of Dumfries with Darmian means Barella is afforded much more attacking freedom as he no longer needs to fill in for the Dutchman when he rampages forward, something Darmian does infrequently. He managed 2+ shots in his last two games against Man City and Atalanta and is great value to repeat the feat.

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📂 Inter v AC Milan Cheat Sheet

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Andy’s Bet Club is the place to be for football predictions throughout the 2024/25 season. Our Serie A acca tips will be available every week of the season as will be a variety of other Serie A predictions.

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📊 Inter Form and Stats

Two wins and two draws aren’t overly flattering results considering the chances Inter have created, particularly in their most recent 1-1 draw with Monza. On that occasion, they accumulated just under 2 expected goals, compared to the 0.22 of Monza. Inter have outscored their opponents by at least 1.1xG in each of their last three league games, generating an average of 2.19 per game.

Although they’re wildly different teams in terms of style and calibre, part of Inter’s preparation for this match took place in Manchester as the Nerazzurri took on Manchester City in the Champions League last Wednesday. The result was a 0-0 draw, once more highlighting Simeone Inzaghi’s tactical flexibility as Inter set up with an effective and compact block, reducing City’s chances to just a few.

Thuram has undoubtedly been one of Inter’s star players although he failed to capitalise on a few chances against Man City. In the league however, the Frenchman has displayed a new, clinical side to his game, scoring four and averaging 1.13 goals per game. To put that into perspective he’s only accumulated 2.55xG meaning he’s on track to record just his second season-wide career xG overperformance.

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📊 AC Milan Form and Stats

There hasn’t been a lot to get excited about for Milan fans who have endured a rough start to the season. They sit on five points after their first four games despite having already faced two of the three newly-promoted sides. The manager is starting to come under a lot of pressure and questions will certainly be raised over his future in Milan if they fail to take anything from this huge derby.

Last Tuesday they hosted Liverpool at the San Siro in their first Champions League clash of the season. To many, it didn’t come as a huge surprise that the Rosonneri capitulated as Liverpool accumulated 5.5x their shots on goal and over 7x their expected goals, also hitting the woodwork twice. Fortunately, Milan were handed a pretty simple draw in the competition 

Among Milan fans and Italian media, a popular view is that a large portion of Milan’s problems stem from Raphael Leao and his downturn in form. In previous seasons he’s been in the conversation for one of the best wingers in the world but he’s yet to turn it on this season. There were rumours that he and Fonseca were not getting on well but that seems to be in the past. Now’s the time for the Portuguese star to step up and inspire a victory in Milan’s time of need.

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⚔️ Inter v AC Milan Head-to-Head

In recent years a clear Milan derby trend has emerged and it’s not one that flatters Fonseca’s men. Each of the last six clashes between the heated rivals have gone the way of Inter, all of which occurred in the past two years.

Last season both occasions were fascinating watches, the latter resulting in a 2-1 Inter win with a match total of three red cards (2 for Milan and 1 for Inter). Inter’s ‘home’ leg was not quite as closely matched with the Nerazzurri thrashing their opposition 5-1.

That’s pretty atypical of games between these sides which tend to be tight affairs, despite the fact that over the course of the last few seasons Milan have generally been no match for Inter in terms of quality and depth.

Although Inter are known for their defensive solidity, there tend to be goals when they come up against Milan with four of the last five in the league resulting in over 2.5 goals. Both sides will be up for this one and this game is unlikely to be any exception.

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* We recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.

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