Musiala was in the wars in the first leg, the Bayern Munich starlet had nine foul involvements (four fouls committed, five fouls won). This record suggests that Musiala will be the target of Italian aggression again here, this record is a direct result of Italy making the central areas of the pitch very compact leaving Musiala with very little space to operate in.

Musiala’s ability to win fouls at a consistent rate is quite impressive, he’s excellent in tight spaces and congested zones often leaving the opposition with no choice but to bring him to the ground to stop his progress. He’s averaging 2.91 fouls won per 90 across his 23 appearances for Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga this season.

Musiala has also been quite prolific in winning fouls when it comes to the Nations League, averaging 2.78 fouls won per 90 across his five appearances in the competition so far. This game could be really fiercely contested, the first leg produced 34 fouls which suggests that there will be a lot of traffic for the referee to manage with Musiala a clear standout to be brought down on a few occasions.

BTTS landed in the first leg with Germany responding well after going a goal behind thanks to Sandro Tonali’s early opener. Julian Nagelsmann’s side walked away 2-1 winners after a spirited comeback in the second half with elements of the first leg suggesting that goals could flow for both sides again here.

Italy have found the back of the net in all seven of their Nations League games this season, they aren’t blessed with options in forward areas but Luciano Spalletti has been quite intelligent in handling this issue, looking to keep the side strong in the other parts of the pitch and relying on extra attacking returns from his three central midfielders and wing back pairing.

Germany have also scored in each of their seven games in the Nations League so far, Julian Nagelsmann’s side are far more settled and complete in forward areas and should have space to exploit here with Italy looking for a way back into the tie. The first leg was competitive and quite even across the majority of metrics, neither side will roll over for the other here which should produce a tight but goal-heavy affair.

Italy have drawn 2+ saves from the opposition goalkeeper in all seven of their Nations League games this season. Luciano Spalletti’s men were quite promising in forward areas in the first leg encounter, especially considering that they don’t have a wealth of options in the final third.

Italy drew five saves from Oliver Baumann in the first leg meeting between the sides, these weren’t the most clear cut chances as shown by their total xG in the game (0.87), but it still showed that they can get in and around the German box with regularity which should make them competitive again here.

Italy are averaging 5.4 shots on target per game in the Nations League this season and exceeded this average in the first leg. They should be motivated to push up the pitch here and be able to sting the gloves of the Germany goalkeeper on at least two occasions.