Cádiz v Villarreal
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Saturday 1st October – 1:00PM KO
The first game of Saturday is Cádiz vs Villarreal, the battle of the Yellows, and the away side have to be considered strong favourites here. Unai Emery’s side sit sixth with 11 points from a difficult early season schedule of six games and they are playing well. They are also expected to welcome star striker Gerard Moreno back from injury, so it’s all set up for Villarreal to return from the international break with a good result.
Then there’s the fact that Cádiz have been terrible to start the 2022/23 season. They may have won their first game of the campaign just before the international break, but that result really should be discarded. Their 92nd minute 1-0 win at Real Valladolid was a classic smash-and-grab, as Real Valladolid were the far better side throughout.
In all of Cádiz’s matches so far this season, they’ve been the worst team. Before that miracle win at Real Valladolid, they had lost their other five games while conceding 14 goals and scoring none. Under coach Sergio González, this has been a team without ideas in attack and with fragility in an ever-changing defence. Even if they’re only second-bottom, thanks to their three-point haul in Valladolid, the reality is that Cádiz have been the very worst team so far this LaLiga season.
With Villarreal coming to town, there’s little reason to believe Cádiz are about to take a second positive result in a row. Their undeserved victory in Matchday 6 kept Sergio González in his job, and Villarreal can take advantage of this stay of execution.
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Prediction: Villarreal to Win, 1.62 on Betfair (⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐)
Getafe v Real Valladolid
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Saturday 1st October – 3:15PM KO
Getafe vs Real Valladolid probably isn’t going to attract many viewers around the world, but a big crowd is expected at the Coliseum Alfonso Pérez as Getafe look to continue their impressive home form. If looking back to October of last year, Getafe have lost just two of 17 LaLiga home matches, and those defeats were against Villarreal and Atlético Madrid. They’ve even defeated Real Madrid and held Barça in that time.
This really is a strong team when they play in front of their home crowd, especially now that they’ve settled back into the 5-3-2 formation that served them so well last season, after a brief experiment with a couple of different systems at the start of this season. Quique Sánchez Flores has remembered what Getafe are good at and they’re playing to their strengths.
Getafe also go into this game with almost a fully fit squad, something they haven’t been able to say so far this season. Real Valladolid, on the other hand, had a nightmare FIFA break as they lost three starters to injury, even though they weren’t even away playing international football. Starting goalkeeper Sergio Asenjo, starting right-back Luis Pérez and starting midfielder Anuar are all out for the foreseeable future and that’s a blow for a team that was struggling anyway, as Real Valladolid are currently third bottom with four points from six games. Visiting the Coliseum Alfonso Pérez could extend their frustrations.
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Prediction: Getafe Draw No Bet, 1.50 on Betfair (⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐)
Sevilla v Atlético Madrid
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Saturday 1st October – 5:30PM KO
Quite incredibly, there are odds as high as 2.20 for there to be over 2.5 goals in this Saturday’s clash between Sevilla and Atlético Madrid. If this fixture was taking place two or three years ago, then maybe those odds would have made more sense, but going by the awful defensive performances these teams have produced so far in 2022/23, that is very generous.
Sure, these teams have two of the best goalkeepers in the league in Bono and Jan Oblak, but neither is in their best form and both are still overcoming lingering injury issues too. Then, the Moroccan and Slovenian shot-stoppers had complete chaos in front of them to begin this new campaign.
Sevilla are still struggling to cope with the fact that they sold their two star centre-backs, Jules Koundé and Diego Carlos, in the summer and they have conceded in all six of their LaLiga matches so far, giving up 11 goals already. It could have been even more, as they have the third-worst xG against in the division, with 13.22.
Atlético Madrid, meanwhile, have had a better defence than Sevilla but they’ve still let in six goals in six LaLiga games, off an xG against of 9.32. They still aren’t certain to have starting centre-backs Stefan Savić or José María Giménez back from injury for this one, and they have Mario Hermoso suspended, so Diego Simeone may once again have to construct a makeshift back three.
Just based on these teams’ defensive performances, goals should be expected. But, then there’s also the fact that quality attacking players, like Erik Lamela, João Félix or Álvaro Morata, will be involved. Plus, both these coaches should approach this game playing to win and not draw, since Sevilla and Atlético are both already so far down in the LaLiga table, in 15th and 7th respectively. This all makes the 2.20 odds seem very generous.
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Prediction: Over 2.5 Goals, 2.30 on Betfair (⭐⭐⭐⭐)
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