Around a month ago the Rams looked like the team to beat this year but then they lost to the Seahawks, and Falcons. They followed that with a win over the Cardinals but then only just squeezed past a Panthers team last week, in a game they were expected to win with ease. With that in mind, I don’t want to back them on the spread, but I’m still bullish on their Super Bowl hopes and have full confidence they win here, even on the road.

They finished with one more win than the Bears this season but with three NFC West teams still in the playoffs, it shows the depth in their division. The Rams finished the regular season top of offensive DVOA, fourth in defensive DVOA and second in offensive EPA per play. This is a serious offense, with a defense who can hang with anybody in the NFL. They win this against a good and improving Bears team.

I loved the selection when the Bears drafted Luther Burden in the second round back in April’s NFL Draft and as the season has progressed he’s really stepped up and solidified his place in this Bears offense, and now looks like a potential superstar.

His line for this game stands at 38.5 receiving yards. I’m hammering the Over here. Firstly, I think we’re going to see the Bears play from behind, which means plenty of passing from Caleb Williams. Then there’s Burden’s recent performances show, he’s on form, and has smashed this line in four of his past five games.

One of the real developments in this Rams offense this season, aside from the arrival of Davante Adams, has been the emergence of Blake Corum, the second year running back. Kyren Williams is still the number one RB but the team like to mix things up and Corum has ascending into a 1B role, to Williams’ 1A. 

He’s had double digit carries in five of his past six games and the team trust him when the chips are down. He’s broken this alternate 30 rushing yard line eight times in his 11 appearances since the Week Eight bye week, and he’s averaged an impressive 5.1 yards per carry across the season.

The Rams offense continues to circle around Puke Nacua, who continues to be a volume monster. He’s had double digit targets in 11 games this season, including the past six games straight. Interestingly, last week, in their most important game of the season so far, he had season-high 18 targets from Matthew Stafford.

Last week he got 111 receiving yards, his seventh 100+ receiving yard game of the season. He’s broken this alternate line of 80+ in 11 games this season, and with their Super Bowl campaign on the line, they’ll continue to go back to the former BYU man.