Atalanta have been Serie A’s most prolific team this season, netting a league-high 42 goals. Their matches have also been among the most entertaining in Italy, averaging 3.59 goals per game, the joint-highest in the division. Over their last 5 matches, this selection has landed 4 times, often in emphatic fashion with those games averaging 4.2 goals scored.

Lazio’s fixtures follow a similar trend; their matches rank 4th in the league for total goals, with an average of 3.29 being scored per match. 14 of their 17 Serie A games have seen at least 3 goals scored, with only those against Napoli, Juventus, and Monza falling short – teams known for their defensive setups, unlike Gian Piero Gasperini’s more aggressive outlook with Atalanta.

Historically, this matchup also delivers goals. In the last 11 meetings between Lazio and Atalanta, 8 have featured 3 or more goals.

Atalanta are 1 of Europe’s most in-form teams, having won each of their last 11 league games. There’s no reason to suggest this isn’t warranted given La Dea have exceeded their opponents in terms of expected goals in all 11. In fact, only once this season, against Inter, have Atalanta accumulated fewer expected goals than their opposition.

Lazio have had a strong start to the season but were found out by Inter when suffering a devastating 6-0 loss in their last home match. They didn’t look to have fully recovered when edging out a 2-1 win over league-strugglers Lecce and they could struggle against far stronger opposition on Saturday.

Perhaps the top-performing player in Serie A this season, Lookman has already bagged 9 goals and contributed to a further 4 assists, all in just 12 league starts.

He has 11 goal contributions in his last 10 starts, notably scoring in each of his most recent 3.

Lazio have conceded 18 league goals this season but 10 of those have come in their last 4, games in which they’ve looked consistently defensively vulnerable. Taking that, alongside Lookman’s form, into account, he surely stands a strong chance of finding his way onto the scoresheet.

Lazio’s average of 5.2 shots on target per match ranks as the 4th-highest in Serie A and certainly implies 3 shouldn’t be too tough a threshold to reach.

They’ve tested the keeper at least 3 times in 22 of their 24 matches across all competitions to date, only failing to do so against Italian giants, Inter and Juventus.

Despite being top of the league, Atalanta have conceded an average of 3.7 shots on target per game in the league this season. Although it’s not necessary for this selection to win, it’s fair to assume Lazio would surpass this figure given the way they’ve been playing this season under Marco Baroni.