Feyenoord v AS Roma
We all know how much Jose Mourinho loves to win a European competition. That is why any team in a European competition being coached by the Portuguese should be taken very seriously.
He showed it last season in the Europa Conference League with AS Roma and now he is trying to do it again, but one step further up the ladder. With Manchester United and Juventus still in the tournament, it would be a great achievement to win the Europa League this season.
Based on how Roma have been playing all season and how Mourinho tends to approach European ties against tricky opposition such as Feyenoord, there may not be a lot of attacking from the Giallorossi on Thursday night in the Netherlands.
The mindset may well be to grab a draw or perhaps a narrow win and take them back to the Stadio Olimpico where there will be a raucous atmosphere in Roma’s favour.
In the play-off round, Roma were tight away at RB Salzburg and only lost 1-0 to a late goal. They then loosened up and won 2-0 at home. In the round of 16, they were at home first and impressively won 2-0 against Real Sociedad. Then they shut up shop away from home in the second leg and drew 0-0.
Feyenoord do not find it hard to score goals but despite being league leaders, Ajax and PSV beneath them have scored 10 and nine more league goals respectively than them. It could be a tight and calculated performance from Roma at De Kuip.
AA Gent v West Ham United
Gent’s Ghelamco Arena is sold out for this European game. The home team will start the match with confidence. Gent are already seven games unbeaten in a row and have averaged three goals per game in these seven games. On paper, the Londoners are favourites, but Gent already eliminated Tottenham Hotspur once under coach Vanhaezebroeck’s previous term in 2017.
In the round of 16 of the Conference League, Gent managed to beat Turkish Basaksehir, after 10 crazy minutes in the return match where 4 goals were scored. Gift Orban’s hat trick in particular still reverberates. The Nigerian remains in superb form and is still the player with the most goals in Europe’s top 10 competitions since his arrival at Gent. West Ham United, like the Belgians, had no trouble in the previous round of this European tournament. AEK Larnaca from Cyprus were swept aside 6-0 across two legs on aggregate.
West Ham United have had a disappointing season in the Premier League and are just three points above the regelation zone. In recent weeks, however, the Londoners seem to have started the way up, picking up seven points in the last four league games. Next weekend, West Ham United take on Arsenal at home, a game that will undoubtedly be at the back of the players’ minds.
We expect a game with plenty of chances. Gent have a very strong duo up front with Cuypers and Orban, and last year’s top striker Tissoudali is also back from a long injury. They will certainly create chances for a goal. At the back, however, they haven’t kept a clean sheet in the last three games. The sudden departure of central defender Ngadeu to China will be absorbed for now by stashing midfielder Castro-Montes in the three-man defence. This has nevertheless caused some uncertainty at the back in recent weeks. We expect West Ham to take advantage of this and pick up a goal on the road.
Juventus v Sporting CP
It has been a rollercoaster season for Juventus. Despite being docked 15 points for financial irregularities, Juve sit four points behind Atalanta, who occupy the final European position, as well as eight behind fourth-placed Milan. They drew the first leg of the Coppa Italia semifinals 1-1 to Inter, with Juan Cuadrado opening the scoring, Romelu Lukaku equalizing in the 95th minute, with both players getting sent off in addition to Samir Handanović in extra time. They would follow that up with a 2-1 defeat at Lazio, with Sergej Milinković-Savić opening the scoring in the 38th minute, Adrien Rabiot equalizing immediately after, and Mattia Zaccagni restoring Lazio’s lead in the 53rd minute to secure a 2-1 victory for Maurizio Sarri against his former side. Apart from that loss, six of Juve’s last seven matches have featured under 2.5 goals, including a 1-0 win and 2-0 win against Freiburg to secure passage to the Europa League quarterfinals, having drawn 1-1 and beaten Nantes 3-0 in the previous round. Most of Juve’s biggest matches have featured under 2.5 goals, such as a 1-0 win at Inter on March 19, a 1-0 loss at Roma on March 5, a 1-0 win against Fiorentina on February 12, and a 1-0 win against Lazio in the Coppa Italia quarterfinal.
They will be looking to bounce back from the defeat as they host Sporting in the first leg of the Europa League quarterfinals. Sporting will be without center forward Paulinho as well as central midfielder Manuel Ugarte, with the Lions picking up a 4-3 victory at the weekend against Casa Pia via a Francisco Trincão hat-trick, but they too have had their fair share of low-scoring away fixtures in recent weeks such as a 1-0 win at Portimonense on March 4, a 1-1 draw at Arsenal that would see them win 5-3 on penalties on March 16, as well as a 0-0 draw at Gil Vicente on April 5. Paulinho’s absence could prove a major headache for Rúben Amorim, who will either start 18-year-old Youssef Chermiti, an old-school, towering center forward who has failed to find the back of the net in each of his last nine appearances or put Nuno Santos, who has been a regular at left wing-back this season, in an attacking position alongside Marcus Edwards and Trincão.
I’m expecting Sebastián Coates to play alongside Gonçalo Inácio and Jeremiah St. Juste in central defense ahead of Antonio Adán, I’m expecting Ricardo Esgaio and Matheus Reis to operate as wingbacks with Pedro Gonçalves and Hidemasa Morita in the double pivot, I’m expecting Edwards, Santos and Trincão to play in the front three, and I’m expecting them to have a tough time breaking down a Juventus side that has kept nine clean sheets since the start of February and that will likely have a back three of Danilo, Bremer and Federico Gatti ahead of Wojciech Szczęsny, with a midfield of Juan Cuadrado, Adrien Rabiot, Manuel Locatelli and Filip Kostić, whilst Federico Chiesa will likely accompany Ángel di María and Dušan Vlahović in attack. Since arriving from Fiorentina for an initial fee of €70 million in January 2022, Vlahović has struggled to live up to the hype, scoring just once in his last 11 Juventus appearances – a penalty against Freiburg on March 16. The Serbian has deleted his Instagram account as he looks to remove distractions and get back to his best, having scored in just one Serie A match this year.
There are a few reasons why I’m backing this to be a fairly low-scoring affair. First, the absence of Paulinho and the lack of confidence for Vlahović could see both teams struggle to provide a cutting edge in attack and an efficient finisher against a back three. Max Allegri’s style of play has come under criticism for being overly conservative and limiting the potential of attacking players like Vlahović and Chiesa, whilst defensive players like Bremer have flourished. Both teams will be aware that a two-goal margin could prove an uphill battle going into the second leg, and as such, both Allegri and Amorim could be looking to keep their cards close to their chest and focus on shutting down the opponent’s attacking threat. From the four Europa League ties that these teams have contested, all but one of the first legs have resulted in under 2.5 goals – Sporting’s 2-2 draw to Arsenal. I’m expecting a low-scoring but entertaining contest in Turin.
Anderlecht v AZ Alkmaar
AZ will visit Lotto Park on Thursday for their away leg of the Conference League quarter-final against Anderlecht but did not have a good dress rehearsal for that match on Saturday. They were unlucky in its finishing against Sparta Rotterdam and went down 0-1 in the Eredivisie.
Anderlecht’s last match before this European clash also came with some difficulties. They were on a run of four wins in a row but had to settle for a scoreless draw against Westerlo on Sunday. That draw leaves Anderlecht ninth in the Belgian league, just outside the play-off places.
AZ deservedly knocked Lazio out of the Conference League in the previous round. In the league, the engine is starting to weather just a tad. After qualification, they failed to win and gained only one point in three games. This is mainly due to poor finishing, a trend that already started after the winter break.
Riemer is expected to opt for the speedy Raman again, who played excellently as a starter in the previous European games. Slimani will be used again as a battering ram for at least half an hour. Anderlecht’s defence is solid with Belgian internationals Vertonghen and Debast. In midfield, Riemer has been forced to play more defensively after Verschaeren’s season-ending injury. He is expected to start with two controlling midfielders Diawara and Arnstadt.
We expect a cautious game where both teams will feel each other out in the beginning and do not want to fall behind quickly. Anderlecht will only start pushing in the second half to go into the return match with a lead. Both teams can count on two in-form goalkeepers. Bart Verbruggen (Anderlecht) will want to show himself to his home crowd and Matt Ryan (AZ) still has a past with Anderlecht’s major rival Club Brugge. We forecast that both goalkeepers will have little work this match and that the decision on this quarter-final will fall in Alkmaar.
Manchester United v Sevilla
As Manchester United prepare to take on Spanish opposition for the third consecutive knock-out round of the Europa League, there is a bizarre curiosity as the quarter-final will pit them against the lowest-ranked team yet in the LaLiga standings as Sevilla arrive in Manchester.
Results have picked up for Sevilla, who recently appointed former Eibar coach José Luis Mendilibar, but they have only just started to climb away from a relegation battle and remain in 12th in the standings. They do so with one of the worst defensive records in LaLiga with 1.6 goals conceded per 90 this season.
That will give reason for optimism among the Manchester United ranks, particularly after they put four past Real Betis in the first leg of the previous round and come into this tie with home advantage once again. It should be easy for the pace of the Manchester United offence and the likes of Marcus Rashford to exploit a Sevilla defence that is more accustomed to playing with a higher line which allows gaps to open up in behind.
Sevilla have not won a European tie on the road since 2020 and that is unlikely to change on Thursday night, so the Red Devils can be firmly confident that they’ll be able to see out this result and secure a comfortable victory.
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