Helsingborg v GAIS
Last season, Helsingborg were relegated from the Swedish top-flight, whilst GAIS managed to scramble their way up from the regionalised third-tier into the Superettan. With that in mind, the hosts’ season aim was promoted, whilst GAIS would have surely been happy with survival. After four matches so far this season, that is not how it has played out so far.
The co-management duo of Alvaro Santos and Mattias Lindstrom have been relieved of their duties. The pair took over in charge of Helsingborg midway through the 2022 Allsvenskan season and oversaw the relegation into the second-tier and the club have started the 2023 Superettan campaign with four successive defeats as they sit rock-bottom in the table.
In the off-season, South Africa and England U19 manager, Stuart Baxter, had been appointed as their Technical Director but he has now been appointed as the manager, after previously managing the club in the 2006 and 2007 seasons.
The hosts lost several key players in the winter, following their relegation, but four defeats from four matches was not expected. A small blessing would be that all four defeats have been by a goal to nil, which does show they have remained in games, despite their poor start to the campaign.
In contrast, GAIS’ 2022 campaign and start to the 2023 second-tier season has been very impressive. The visitors’ 2-0 win at home to Landskrona last week was their third successive victory and means they have begun with a newly-promoted bounce of collecting ten points in their opening four matches.
The underlying data backs them up as the strongest side in the division so far, with them sitting at the top of the ‘expected goals’ table and having an xG of, quite incredibly, 1.96 per game so far. That does feel a little unsustainable but remains very impressive.
GAIS are obviously heading into this match day in some fine form, in terms of both performances and results, and they will be seeking to make a fragile and hurting Helsingborg side pay. However, with a new manager at the helm and, hopefully, a more buoyant crowd, it could be a little bit more even than it seems on paper, pre-match.
Barcelona v Osasuna
This has been a season of many binary code results for Barcelona, but they finally found their scoring touch again on the weekend to thrash Real Betis 4-0, even if they were helped by an early red card for their opponents. Now, Barça have a second home game in a row and will hope to put on another show for the fans, especially now that almost the entire squad is healthy and available.
There is further reason to believe that Barcelona can achieve a convincing victory, and that’s the fact that their opponents will have their minds elsewhere. On Saturday, Osasuna will be taking on Real Madrid in the Copa del Rey final, the club’s most important match since their only other cup final back in 2005.
Jagoba Arrasate will make significant rotations for this midweek league game, something he has been doing all throughout Osasuna’s cup run. For example, Arrasate made six changes to his line-up in the league game prior to the semi-final first leg and then five changes to his line-up in the league game prior to the semi-final second leg. We can expect similar or even more rotation here, while we already know for certain that star winger Ez Abde won’t be playing because he is on loan from Barça and there is a clause in his contract preventing him from featuring.
Everything points to Barcelona putting this heavily rotated Osasuna side to the sword, and to Osasuna not caring one bit so long as they win the cup on the weekend.
Real Sociedad v Real Madrid
Real Sociedad can almost hear the Champions League anthem now. The Basque side have been close to finishing in the top four over the past few years and it seems that this campaign they’ll finally achieve their objective of returning to Europe’s top competition, 10 years after their last appearance. They know it’s not secured yet, though, and that this Tuesday’s game against Real Madrid is a significant one.
Real Madrid, on the other hand, are approaching this game with far less motivation. 11 points behind in the LaLiga table, this is by far their least important game of the next eight days, as Los Blancos have the Copa del Rey final against Osasuna on Saturday and then the Manchester City first leg next Tuesday.
There will be many rotations from Carlo Ancelotti for this game, including some forced ones as Eduardo Camavinga and Vinícius – arguably Real Madrid’s two best players of the past couple of months – are both suspended.
If Real Madrid are rotating heavily and not fully motivated, it’s hard to see this being an away win, not least because they are facing a strong opponent. Of coach Imanol Alguacil’s 10 previous meetings against Real Madrid, the Basque club’s coach has overseen three victories, three draws and four defeats.
Liverpool Montevideo v Argentinos Juniors
Argentinos Jrs head to Uruguay full of confidence after winning their opening two matches, putting them top of Group E. Having beaten group favourites, Corinthians, last time out in Brazil, another win would put them firmly in contention to qualify for the knockout stage.
Liverpool Montevideo were expected to finish bottom of the group and are on course to achieve that, having lost both of their matches without scoring. Both Corinthians and Independiente del Valle played them off the park and Argentinos Jrs are expected to produce a similar performance.
As we saw when Liverpool hosted Corinthians, the atmosphere didn’t feel intimidating at all, which allowed the Brazilian club to get into a routine to record an easy victory.
With so much at stake for Argentinos Jrs, this is a match in which they can easily win but also build up their positive goal difference. An away victory looks to be a very strong bet at around 1.85.
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