Danny Cowley has now had a season and a half to get his feet under the table at Colchester, and appears to have the The U’s trending in the right direction.

After a strong second half of the season, they flirted with the top seven before finishing three points short of the play-offs. From New Year’s Day onwards, they picked up 40 points from 24 games, the 4th-best record in that period. The three teams that finished above them in that sample were the three automatically promoted sides.

Cowley won League Two with Lincoln City back in 2019, having guided them to the play-offs the season before after promotion from the National League. His teams are solid first and foremost, a good recipe for success in the fourth tier, Colchester conceded the 5th-fewest goals last season.

They have lost Jamie McDonnell, a key loanee from last season, but have replaced him with another Nottingham Forest youngster in Ben Perry, and also the experienced Dominic Gape.

The U’s need to strengthen in attacking areas, having scored fewer goals than any side that finished in the top half of League Two, but sturdy foundations could propel them a long way.

My interest in Cambridge United stems from their Expected Points tally from last season, which stood at 55, 17 points higher than they actually achieved. There were seven worse League One sides, which suggests they were unlucky to be relegated based on performances. Eeach-way terms pay at a quarter of the odds if they finish in the top 3.

At the helm is Neil Harris, in his second spell with Cambridge, a manager who has proved capable with multiple clubs. He won the League One play-offs with Millwall in his first spell and took them from relegation candidates to mid table in his second tier, then he guided Cardiff to the Championship play-offs - the Bluebirds best season since relegation from the Premier League. He was last at this level with trigger-happy Gillingham, where he was harshly sacked after 11 games despite the Gills being 8th in the table.

Harris will be guided by Mark Bonner, former Cambridge manager and now Director of Football, a man synonymous with The U’s, and who, as a manage,r got Cambridge promoted from this level in 2021.

Squad-wise, a lot of the older heads have been moved on, stalwart Paul Digby, for example. Dominic Ball and Ben Purrington should prove shrewd acquisitions, and if Harris can get Shayne Lavery fit and firing, he should be too good for this level.

Grimsby were denied a play-off spot on the final day of the League Two season, losing 1-0 at home to eventual Wembley winners AFC Wimbledon. They faded in the second half of the campaign, having been 6th at the turn of the year, but there were still plenty of positives for David Artell to take from his first full season in charge.

They have lost Denver Hume, who was probably their best player last season, but swiftly replaced him with Jayden Sweeney from Leyton Orient. They have taken a chance on Jaze Kabia from National League South winners Truro City, Kabia scored 16 goals in promotion last season.

In Artell, they have a manager who oversaw four years of gradual improvement at Crewe in his previous job, including promotion to League One and a mid table finish in their first season at that level. A slight increase on their points tally from last season would see this bet land.

Chesterfield are the favourites for this category (involving them, Notts County, Walsall and Shrewsbury), and worthy ones in my opinion. From the closure of the January transfer window until the end of the season, they were the 5th best side in League Two, putting together a late surge which saw them get into the play-offs. They haven’t lost any players of note, and have managed to bring in precocious wideman Dilan Markanday permanently, after losing him in January.

Walsall were top of the league and Notts County were 3rd on 1st February 2025, but both ended up in the play-offs, Walsall in particular squandering an 11-point gap to 4th. Mat Sadler starts the season as a man under pressure, whilst new County boss Martin Paterson looks an underwhelming appointment. They’ve also lost key players at both ends of the pitch in David McGoldrick and Alex Bass.

Shrewsbury are an unknown quantity, but they were awful in League One last season, finishing the season bottom of the pile and 14 points from safety. I do like Michael Appleton as a manager, and they have made some good defensive signings, but I don’t expect them to reach the levels that Chesterfield will. 

A short price about the Spireites, but it looks a cracking bet.

It was a tough end to the season for Crewe and Lee Bell last term. The Railwaymen were 4th at the turn of the year, and looking to go one better than the 2023/24 season when they lost in the play-off final.

Unfortunately, they fell apart in the second half of the season, with the 2nd-worst record in League Two from the end of the January transfer window onwards.

The team with the worst record, MK Dons, are now heavy favourites to win the league, but for Crewe, the optimism levels remain at the lower end of the scale, with some fans already on Lee Bell’s back before a ball is kicked.

They have lost a lot of their better players from last season, the majority were loanees anyway, and promising defender Zac Williams looks set to reject a new deal. They have also lost Matus Holicek and Joel Tabiner to injuries already.

The incomings look thus far uninspiring, so there looks to be no obvious reason why Crewe should be able to reverse the catastrophic form from the last few months of last season.

To put it bluntly, Newport were lucky to survive relegation last season. They finished bottom of the Expected Points table with a total of 40, nine less than they actually picked up. In the actual table, they finished 22nd, one place above the trap door.

To try and capitalise on the positive variance they profited from, Nelson Jardim was removed as head coach and replaced by David Hughes. This will be Hughes’ first managerial role in the EFL, but he has an impressive CV as a coach, working for the likes of Manchester United and Aston Villa. It remains to be seen whether his skill set will translate to being a good manager.

Newport have lost three regulars from last season, goalkeeper Nick Townsend, full back Shane McLoughlin and midfielder Aaron Wildig, who could prove big misses if their respective replacements don’t hit the ground running.

The Exiles usually have one of the lowest budgets in League Two, so they are up against it to bring about any massive improvement through recruitment; their main hope is seemingly that Hughes proves to be a shrewd appointment.