General Stats

Before we delve into that question we should assess the general data on League Two opening day over the last five seasons.

• There seems to be an increasing number of goals on opening day, whilst the average is 2.37, the weighted average is 2.53 and the highest average was last season at 2.75 goals per game

• There have been some heavy wins on opening day, but not many

• Similarly to League One, there was a massive spike in yellow cards given in 2023

• Most matches see both teams pick up at least one card in the match

• At least two-thirds of matches on opening day go over 2.5 cards in the match

Teams Relegated from League One

There does seem to be some credence to the general wisdom about former League One clubs not having things their own way in League Two.

The record over the last five years has been very much hit and miss for the relegated clubs.

Overall, there have been more wins than losses on the opening day, and this is mainly down to the last two seasons where three out of four relegated clubs won their first fixture.

The only team to lose last year was Carlisle, which ended up being a forebearer to their eventual disaster of a season as they got relegated into the National League. Interestingly, that also happened the previous season with Forest Green losing their opener and eventually being relegated.

There is a home advantage to be seen for the relegated clubs, with two thirds of the home teams winning their matches. This record is 6-1 when excluding the two matches in 2020 which Bolton and Southend lost.

This year, Bristol Rovers, Cambridge United, and Shrewsbury are all at home on opening day. Rovers and Cambridge are odds on, but Shrewsbury are odds against Bromley.

There is a higher average of goals in these matches involving relegated clubs, with over half of the matches going over 2.5 goals, and over 20% going over 4.5 goals as well.

Teams Promoted From the National League

Teams promoted into League Two tend to have a really strong record overall.

Interestingly, this does not extend to the opening day of the season, though. Only Bromley have won their first game of the EFL in the last three seasons.

It is a fairly small sample size overall because of the two up - two down situation between the EFL and National League, but only three of the ten won their first match, Hartlepool and Harrogate joining Bromley in that feat.

The goal averages in matches involving National League promotees are very high. These are enhanced by Wrexham 3-5 MK Dons and Sutton 5-1 Notts County in recent years.

This has helped the goal averages up to 3.5 per match.