Leeds have been in fine form since Javi Gracia joined. They have lost just two league games – both away at the Emirates and Stamford Bridge – and have picked up points against the teams around them. In their six league games, they have scored ten goals, conceding ten (four of which to Arsenal). Excluding that game against the league leaders, they have amassed 6.2 expected goals, conceding 8.1. Whilst they have slightly overperformed against this data, they have dominated the games against the teams around them – Southampton (0.9 xGF, 0.4 xGA) and Nottingham Forest (1.8 xGF, 0.8 xGA). They will expect a similar performance here.

Crystal Palace have been very bad in 2023, and their results have shown that. In their 12 games under Vieira in 2023, they lost ten of those on expected goals, being contained to under 1.0 xGF in eight and conceding over one xG in nine – implying that their results were not unfair. They were much improved last time out with Hodgson back in charge, but that was against a Leicester team that is on a terrible run of form, most recently losing at home to Bournemouth on Saturday. Given that they will not have their main goalkeeper – Guaita – or their star man – Zaha – they should struggle again here. Slightly more risky selections are Leeds draw no bet @ 4/9 or Leeds outright @ EVS.

Eberechi Eze has been in and out of the Southampton team this season but the forward played 90 minutes in Hodgson’s first game last weekend. In that game, he had five shots, with three on target, and across the season he is averaging 2.32 shots per 90 in the league. In seven of the eight league games he has played 89 minutes or more in this season, he has had two or more shots – with the exception being away at Manchester City. One of those games was against Leeds where he had three shots, scoring once. With Zaha being out, there is more responsibility on the young winger to take the game to Leeds. He has also had ten shots from free kicks for Palace this season.

With Zaha being out, it remains to be seen who will be on penalties for them but Eze scored four of his five league penalties for his former club, QPR so may be given that responsibility. Leeds have conceded plenty of shots under Javi Gracia, conceding at least 12 in the most recent five of his six league games at an average of 14 per game.

ities.

Jack Harrison has committed 30 fouls in 2007 league minutes this season, at an average of 1.35 per game. Since Javi Gracia has joined the club, he has played at least 79 minutes in all six league games, conceding seven fouls – including at least one in five of the six. He has conceded two fouls in two of his three league games here in that time.

The Englishman has played 73 minutes or more on 21 different occasions this season, committing at least one foul in 16 of those, and at least two in seven. Of those 21, 11 have been at home and his numbers increase drastically here. In ten of those 11, he has given away one foul (the exception being Chelsea in August) and in six he has committed two. Two fouls @ 9/5 look like value too.

Crystal Palace games this season average 4.52 cards per game and 4.50 away from Selhurst Park. They have received an average of 2.48 cards per game and have been shown two cards in 69% of their games. They have had at least two bookings in five of their last six games on the road. In their last five at home, Leeds have drawn an average of 2.40 cards per game, with their opponents being given at least one card in all of them and at least two in three.

The referee for this one is Simon Hooper and whilst he has shown few cards this season (3.10 per game in his 21 Premier League matches), he tends to show the away side considerably more cards. Home sides have an average of 1.24 cautions per game (being shown two or more in 38%) whilst away sides given 1.90 per match (two or more in 62%). An alternative angle is Crystal Palace most cards @ 6/5.