Bayern Munich were not that aggressive in the first leg meeting, but that attitude is likely to change here given that they are trailing in the tie and need to win to get through to the final for the first time under Vincent Kompany.

Bayern Munich have collected 22 yellow cards across their 13 Champions League matches this season (1.69 per 90) and have also picked up two red cards. They picked up four cards when travelling to the Parc Des Princes in the league phase of the competition, including a red card which was shown to Luis Diaz.

The referee for this game is Joao Pinherio who has handed out 28 yellow cards across his seven appointments in the Champions League this season (4.00 per game). Context is a real driver here, but Bayern’s card record is still pretty solid in the Champions League and the referee appointment should also help see them collect at least two cards here.

The first leg meeting between the side produced seven corners, we’re after a few more here in another selection where the context should be a key driver with there only being one goal between the sides from the first leg thriller. 

There were exactly 10 match corners when these sides met earlier on in the league phase of the Champions League, with PSG taking advantage of Bayern Munich dropping down to 10 men on that occasion and winning nine of these corners. 

Bayern are seeing 9.31 match corners per game in the Champions League this season, so we’re looking for a small increase in their average numbers which should be able to come with the context that surrounds this game with both European heavyweights being just one game away from a Champions League final, in which they’d likely be favourites against either Arsenal or Atletico Madrid.

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has scored more goals than any other PSG player in the Champions League this season (10), adding two goals to his tally in the first leg as he helped PSG record a 5-4 win over Bayern Munich in Paris.

Interestingly, he’s the most generously priced of the forward players for a shot on target here. The market is understandably quite short in general after the nine goal thriller we had last week, but this is still at a decent price given Kvaratskhelia’s overall shot and shot on target record in the Champions League.

Kvaratskhelia has taken 44 shots across his 12 starts in the Champions League this season (4.10 per 90), seeing 16 of these efforts find the target (1.49 per 90). He’s actually scored more goals in the Champions League than he has in Ligue 1 (7), showing just how much Kvaratskhelia loves this competition and I think he’ll be able to make a positive impact again.

Joao Neves committed a foul in the first leg meeting between the sides last week and generally is the most aggressive of the PSG midfield trio. He’s committed nine fouls across his 11 starts in the Champions League this season (0.87 per 90), and I’d expect him to get through a bit more work here now that PSG are the away side.

PSG employ a counter press which allows them to suffocate the opposition. This doesn’t work as effectively against a side like Bayern who are willing to match that intensity, but it does still lead to Neves and the front three of PSG being roped into challenges to stop the opposition finding a way through their structure. 

I’m particularly interested in Joao Neves’ battle with Jamal Musiala, who has won six fouls across his two starts in the Champions League this season (2.29 per 90). This is a small sample size, but winning fouls is a strong part of Musiala’s game. Bayern drew 14 fouls from PSG in the first leg meeting, committing just four fouls themselves in the game.

Desire Doue tends to save his best performances for the big occasions, and I think this is a generous price for the winger to contribute to the action again. He registered two assists in PSG’s 5-4 win over Bayern last week and has recorded nine goal contributions across his seven starts in the Champions League overall (5 goals, 4 assists).

All the Bayern Munich attackers are priced around 1.5-1.8 to record a goal contribution here, but there’s a bit more leeway for the PSG stars, which is a bit surprising given their impressive records in the Champions League this season and the nature of the first leg. Over 2.5 Goals is priced as short as 1.14 here, so I think you’re better placed looking for players to match that goal line rather than backing goals alone here.

Doue also set up a goal for PSG against Lorient over the weekend, so he enters this clash having recorded a goal contribution in each of his last three matches for PSG - three of these being assists. He scored in the Champions League final last season, so he won’t shy away from the occasion, and I think he can contribute to what should be another end-to-end clash. 

I was pretty impressed with Upamecano and Tah in the first leg, which may be a strange thing to say with Bayern conceding five goals, but they had good moments in between the ridiculous levels of attacking quality we saw, and most importantly, did not get roped into a battle with PSG’s frontline, who are all very strong when it comes to winning fouls.

I think this will change slightly here, given the dynamic of the game. Bayern are chasing the tie and will naturally take risks, perhaps even more than they did last week as the home side here, leaving Upamecano and Tah at real risk of committing tactical fouls against the likes of Kvaratskhelia and Doue, who will relish being afforded the extra space in this encounter. 

Upamecano has collected two yellow cards across his 11 starts in the Champions League this season and has picked up a further four cautions across his 20 starts in the Bundesliga this term. 

Nuno Mendes is one of the shorter-priced options to pick up a card here, but I still think he’s worth backing with the fullback facing up against Michael Olise here. I haven’t seen many wingers embarrass Mendes this season, or at all really throughout his PSG career, but Olise had him on skates at times in the first leg, and those wide areas could be the key to Bayern finding a way back into this tie.

Mendes has committed a foul in both of PSG’s games against Bayern Munich in the Champions League this season, picking up a yellow card in the meeting between the sides in the league phase of the competition. He’s picked up two cards across his 15 starts in the Champions League overall, and is bound to be repeatedly tested by Michael Olise.

Olise has drawn 20 fouls across his 11 starts in the Champions League this season (1.82 per 90). He has been fouled twice in both meetings between these sides in the Champions League this term, and should be able to test Mendes again down that side of the pitch.