In this article…
Leeds v Millwall
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Kick Off: Sunday 17th March at 15:00
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Competition: Championship
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Watch Live: Sky Sports Football
Sunday sees Leeds and Millwall go head-to-head in an afternoon kick-off at Elland Road. It’s not just this game we’re focusing on either, with our football coverage this weekend also including EFL betting predictions and EFL accumulator tips. As ever on Andy’s Bet Club we also have a huge range of football tips and expert betting predictions from outside the EFL to help you bag a winner.
Before you place your bets though, make sure to browse our carefully curated selection of free bets and all of the best bet builder bookmaker offers to make your money work for you.
The title is in Leeds’ sights now as Leicester continue to drop points. The Whites can go top of the league for the first time with a two-goal victory against Millwall and that could be a huge psychological lift for the Leeds squad, and a concern for long-time leaders Leicester.
Leeds have thoroughly earned their charge into the promotion places. It has come following a powerful run of wins since the turn of the year, with only Huddersfield preventing them from picking up maximum points from the 12 Championship matches in 2024.
Millwall have, of course, had a resurgence of their own. Neil Harris has gone four games unbeaten, winning three of them, and the whole club seems to have been lifted by the club legend’s return.
This clash will have an impact at both ends of the table as, even though Millwall have distanced themselves from the bottom three with those 10 points in 4 matches, they are by no means out of it.
Leeds v Millwall Cheat Sheet
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You can find Leeds v Millwall match stats, on my bet builder stats tool, along with official line-ups one hour before kick-off.
🏆 Match stats: Millwall’s attacking data gives insight into their struggles
Millwall’s lack of quality going forward lookls to have been their Achilles’ heel in the Championship this season.
The Lions sit 20th in the league for xG creation, with 36.3 xG in their 37 matches, less than a whole expected goal per game. They are averaging only 3.6 shots on target per match.
Defensively, there are better signs. They have the ninth-best defence by goals conceded in the league, albeit they are still 16th in the league on xG against, which exactly mirrors their actual league position.
Speaking of mirroring league position though, Leeds sit in the top two in the league for both xG created and xG conceded. Three of Leeds’ players are into double figures of goals for the season, with three more over 5 goals in the league.
It is difficult to see where Millwall can hurt Leeds. The obvious scenario is at set pieces, a third of Millwall’s goals have come through this route this season, but they might be few and far between if Leeds are able to keep Millwall in their own half.
Predictions:
⚽ Leeds to win @ 1.73
⚽ Leeds (-1.5 handicap) @ 2.10
🚩 Corners stats: Home corner line tempting
Leeds are an unbackable 1.12 shot to have the most corners in this match. That price is completely understandable when you look into the historical data though.
The way that the match is expected to pan out would give enough confidence for that sort of price regardless, Leeds only concede 2.6 corners a match at Elland Road, the lowest in the Championship. They earn 6.22, which is fairly average for the league.
Millwall themselves only average just over 3 corners away from home, conceding over 6 themselves.
Corners are a heavy gamestate affected market, but even if Leeds go one-nil up early, they will likely keep pressing, knowing that a two-goal win will take them top of the league. Goal difference could be important at the end of the season and Leeds will be aware of that.
If Millwall take the lead, then there could be an avalanche of corners one way, so backing the home line overs and a potential bet on the unders for the away side could work well.
Predictions:
⚽ Over 6.5 Leeds corners @ 1.85
🛑 Fouls stats: High foulers on both sides worth chancing on big lines
There are a couple of players on both sides who have managed to keep up their average fouls numbers around the two fouls a game line, which could be worth chancing in an important game such as this one.
George Saville has committed two fouls or more in three of his last five fixtures, and he has been playing full matches under Neil Harris, which gives some confidence that he will have the maximum amount of time to make his presence felt.
Georginio Rutter has a gravitational pull to the ball and also to foul situations. He is heavily fouled but also he fouls a lot. His last three completed 90s saw the young Frenchman commit 4 fouls on each occasion.
Predictions:
⚽ George Saville to commit 2+ fouls @ 1.61
⚽ George Saville to commit 3+ fouls @ 2.87
⚽ Georginio Rutter to commit 2+ fouls @ 1.53
⚽ Georginio Rutter to commit 3+ fouls @ 2.60
* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
18+ please gamble responsibly.
