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Newcastle v Liverpool 3/1 Bet Builder Tips, Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Newcastle v Liverpool 3/1 Bet Builder Tips, Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Friday 14 March, 20253 min read
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Andy Robson

Andy Robson is the most popular betting tipster in the UK. With a combined following in excess of 1 million people across his social media channels, Andy has built a loyal audience by consistently providing quality betting content for over nine years. He is the founder of Andy’s Bet Club, which he launched in 2019.

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Newcastle welcome Liverpool to St James’ Park, with the dominating narrative surrounding Alexander Isak’s desire to leave the Magpies taking centre stage.

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Newcastle v Liverpool Best Bet Builder Bets
  • Newcastle v Liverpool
  • Premier League
  • 20:00
4 Selections @ 4.09

Hugo Ekitike to have 1+ Shots on Target

Ekitike has made a dream start to life at Liverpool, with a goal in the Community Shield followed up by a goal at Anfield against Bournemouth. He looks like a player that is going to be a constant shot threat this season with the volume of chances that Liverpool create.

Ekitike’s shot count was consistently high for Frankfurt last season. He had 117 shots across his 33 appearances in the Bundesliga (3.54 per 90), with 48 of these attempts finding the target (1.68 per 90). We saw a sample of this shot volume against Bournemouth, which was a game in which he had four shots, two of which found the target.

Given how quickly Ekitike has settled, we can expect him to remain a real danger for the Reds here. His willingness to shoot from range (24% of shots outside the box last season) also aids this selection, should Newcastle drop deep at times.

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Anthony Gordon to have 1+ Shots on Target

Gordon was having shots for fun in Newcastle’s opening game of the season against Aston Villa as the central striker. He had seven shots against Villa, with two of these efforts finding the target. He should have really found the back of the net with at least a few of these attempts, which partially displays the issue that Newcastle have without Alexander Isak.

Gordon should continue to play through the middle here, with Newcastle still posing a threat with the front three of Gordon, Elanga and Barnes, who can exploit this Liverpool backline. We’ve seen Slot’s side face problems in transition against Bournemouth and Palace recently.

Gordon averaged 0.70 shots on target per 90 for Newcastle last season, but we can expect this to rise as he’s playing as a central striker. Newcastle scored three goals in this fixture last season, with Gordon getting one, he had five shots in the match, with two of these efforts finding the target.

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Anthony Gordon to be Fouled 2+ Times

Gordon was hauled down twice on the opening weekend of the season against Aston Villa and is always a strong player to back to win fouls. He was fouled five times in this fixture last season, with Liverpool committing 17 fouls in total, and the extra layer of aggression that exists between these sides following the Alexander Isak situation should see a similarly feisty affair here.

Gordon averaged 2.61 fouls won per 90 in the Premier League last season. The majority of these appearances came on the left wing, so it was the fullback that he was causing issues, but here it is likely to be Van Dijk and Konate that have to manage the threat of Gordon, who will have been encouraged by the shaky performances from Liverpool's backline so far.

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Both Teams to Score

This fixture saw six goals last season as the sides played out a 3-3 draw.

Liverpool scored more goals than any other side on the road in the Premier League last season (44 - 2.31 per game). You can expect to start games at least one goal down against this Liverpool side, their attacking threat is so strong that trying to keep them out for 90 minutes is a near impossible task, but there are opportunities for sides if they take the game to Liverpool, with their backline far from settled at the moment.

Newcastle scored 40 goals across their 19 games at St James’ Park last season, with only Man City and Liverpool scoring more goals at home. Obviously, Isak was a massive part of this strong goal tally, but Newcastle will be eager to prove that his absence won’t affect the performance levels of the side. Liverpool failed to keep a clean sheet across their five friendly matches and have conceded 2+ goals against both Palace and Bournemouth at the start of the season. 

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Newcastle v Liverpool Best Longshot Bets
  • Newcastle v Liverpool
  • Premier League
  • 20:00
3 Selections @ 16.21

Anthony Gordon to Score or Assist

Gordon scored in this fixture last season and will be eager to show that this Newcastle side still carries a significant attacking threat through him in the absence of Isak. Gordon registered 15 goal contributions across all competitions last term and has a tendency to produce his best performances against the elite sides in the Premier League.

He’s provided goal contributions at St James’ Park against Man City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool and Man United over the last two seasons, and will also be on penalties for Eddie Howe’s side here. Gordon is likely to be the most motivated of the Newcastle frontline to prove a point here, so I’m more than comfortable to back him for a goal contribution.

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Ibrahima Konate to be Shown a Card

I’ve touched on the dynamic between Gordon and the two Liverpool centre backs here and the makeshift striker may attach himself to Konate at times, after seeing his performance against Bournemouth.

Konate was all over the place at times in that game, and a more effective attacking set up would have punished Liverpool for his laziness. Konate had similar issues against Palace in the Community Shield, he committed two fouls in that game and was shown a yellow card.

He has been linked with a move to Real Madrid for the last few months and he is playing like a centre back that has had his head slightly turned by the interest of Los Blancos. Jeremie Frimpong’s recent injury makes things even more complicated for Konate, who picked up five yellow cards last season.

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Liverpool to Commit 12+ Fouls

Liverpool are quite an aggressive side, but they don’t often get that tag due to how effective they are in the final third. Arne Slot’s side averaged 11.3 fouls committed per game in the Premier League last season and committed 17 fouls in this fixture last year.

Newcastle were one of the most fouled sides in the Premier League last season (449 - 11.8 per game). Only Tottenham and Aston Villa won more fouls than the Magpies, and this isn’t really surprising when looking at some of the players in the Newcastle squad:

  • Bruno Guimarães - 2.96 fouls won p/90

  • Joelinton - 1.31 fouls won 0/90

  • Tonali - 1.68 fouls won p/90

  • Gordon - 2.61 fouls won p/90

(All 24/25 PL) 

The midfield alone carries so many potential fouls for Liverpool, as well as an attacking line for Newcastle which is bound to exploit the gaps in the Reds’ backline. Newcastle drew 13 fouls from Aston Villa on the opening weekend of the season.

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📂 Newcastle v Liverpool Cheat Sheet

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📈 Newcastle v Liverpool Form & Tactics

It’s been a tough summer for Newcastle, but they did show plenty of fight and quality against Aston Villa to suggest that they will still be a threat this season, even without their star man. It’s impossible to talk about this game without talking about Isak. The transfer saga has hit new heights with Isak claiming that the relationship between him and Newcastle cannot continue, but the club is holding firm and instructing Isak that he will not be leaving this summer.

Newcastle are still a very dangerous side without Isak. Gordon, Barnes and Elanga can cause any backline in the Premier League problems, especially one that has conceded 2+ goals in their last two matches against Bournemouth and Crystal Palace. Newcastle’s midfield remains the main strength of their side. I’m interested to see how Wirtz does up against the ultra physical nature of Tonali, Guimaraes and Joelinton, who will no doubt dial up their aggression (if that’s even possible) for this game.

I’m caught in two minds when watching Liverpool at the moment. On the one hand, I don’t see how many sides are going to stop them from scoring at least two goals in every game, which naturally will give them a real chance of winning the majority of matches, but I equally could see them conceding two goals in a lot of these games.

Frimpong has just picked up an injury, ruling him out until the international break, which leaves this Liverpool backline in an even more awkward situation. Joe Gomez is likely to slot in, but Liverpool haven’t kept a clean sheet in their last seven matches, including five pre-season games.

Slot needs to find a solution, but I think it will take him time; he’s probably a bit relieved that Isak isn’t playing any part in this game, as he would have been a player who could have really exploited Liverpool’s current issues.


🏁 Ref Watch

Simon Hooper

Fouls pg

Yellows pg

Reds pg

Pens pg

21.65

3.63

0.06

0.20

Per game stats from Hooper's 127 career Premier League games.


📊 Newcastle v Liverpool Key Stats

  • Newcastle drew their opening game of the season against Aston Villa 0-0

  • Newcastle scored 40 goals at St James’ Park last season, only Liverpool and City scored more goals at home

  • Newcastle got the better of Liverpool in the Carabao Cup final, but will be missing a goalscorer from that game in Alexander Isak. Isak also scored and assisted against Liverpool in this fixture last season

  • Newcastle averaged 11.9 fouls won per game in the Premier League last season, only Tottenham and Villa won fouls more frequently

  • Liverpool are without a clean sheet in their last seven matches, including conceding 2+ goals in each of their last two games against Premier League opposition

  • Liverpool scored 44 goals across their away games last season, more than any other side

  • Liverpool committed 17 fouls in this fixture last season.


Football Predictions at Andy's Bet Club

Andy's Bet Club is packed full of Expert Football Tips. We also have an easy-to-use Bet Builder Stats tool to help you conduct your own research. Look out for our Premier League Predictions this season, as well as Gem Bets.

These Newcastle v Liverpool Betting Stats provide further insight, while we also have a Newcastle v Liverpool Fouls Double, and Quick Previews for Sevilla v Getafe and Inter Milan v Torino.

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.


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