Given Liverpool’s relentless scoring power, Newcastle cannot rely on defensive resilience alone to win the final. Liverpool have shown time and again that they have the keys to unlock even the meanest defence in the Premier League but have suffered their first real setback of the season this week in exiting the Champions League at the hands of PSG following a penalty shootout. Newcastle managed to breach the Liverpool backline on three occasions in the initial league meeting between the sides at St James’ Park. They were more subdued in the meeting at Anfield but Newcastle have shown an appetite for this competition having already seen off Chelsea and Arsenal on the road to this final. Eddie Howe’s side have plenty of scoring power even in the absence of Anthony Gordon. Alexander Isak stands out as a player that can cause the Liverpool backline problems, he’s scored 19 goals across his 25 Premier League appearances this season and scored the opener in the draw between these sides at St James’ Park earlier this season. Liverpool are pretty much guaranteed to find the back of the net here, their blank against PSG last time out was the first time in 7 matches that they have failed to find the back of the net, with the previous occurrence coming against Plymouth in the FA Cup which was the game they heavily rotated for.

Ryan Gravenberch has been excellent for Liverpool this season. Previously just a squad player under Jurgen Klopp, he’s developed massively this season in a slighter deeper role which has made the most of his sharp movement in tight spaces and ability to progress the ball through the thirds, connecting the defence and attack. This slightly deeper role has directly impacted his foul won numbers this season, he’s often targeted by the opposition as the genesis of the majority of Liverpool’s attacks this season. Gravenberch has won 38 fouls across his 29 appearances in the Premier League this season (1.38 per 90) demonstrating a direct link between these factors and being brought down. The 22 year old was brought down once in the meeting between the sides at St James’ Park and was stopped twice in the fixture at Anfield. Newcastle’s midfield is a real strength with Joelinton, Tonali and Guimaraes making up a talented, but reckless midfield trio. Gravenberch will be up against Joelinton who is averaging 2.28 fouls committed per 90 across his 24 appearances in the Premier League this season.

Dominik Szoboszlai is the engine behind this Liverpool side, especially when they are without the ball. Szoboszlai has covered more ground than any other Liverpool player this season making him crucial with the way Arne Slot wants to play. One area where Liverpool have been really strong is their press in the final third, it has weakened in intensity as the season has progressed with Slot emphasising control over anything else but it is still present as shown by their foul numbers across the season as a whole. Slot’s men are averaging 11.6 fouls committed per game in the Premier League this season and exceeded that total in both meetings against Newcastle this season who are one of the best teams in the league when it comes to winning fouls, especially in the middle of the park. Szoboszlai is averaging 1.61 fouls committed per 90 in the Premier League this season and committed a foul in each of the league meetings with Newcastle this season. Szoboszlai will be up against Bruno Guimaraes who is one of the most fouled players in the league this season. The Brazilian is averaging 3.41 fouls won per 90 across his 28 games in the Premier League this season. Guimaraes was fouled at least once in both league meetings with Liverpool this campaign.

Alisson was more busy than usual in Liverpool’s Champions League tie against PSG, the 32 year old was forced into making 16 saves across the two legs and whilst it’s unlikely he’ll face that level of shot volume here, Newcastle can still test the Liverpool keeper on a few occasions. It’s possible that Kelleher steps into the Liverpool net for this final seeing as he has played in goal for the majority of Liverpool’s EFL Cup campaign so far. Kelleher is arguably the best backup keeper in Europe and faced up against Newcastle earlier in the season when Alisson was injured. He was forced into making 3 saves that day and made an unfortunate error which allowed Newcastle to steal a point late on after failing to come for a ball into the box. Kelleher is averaging 3.00 saves per game across his eight appearances in the Premier League this season. Kelleher is an excellent shot stopper but is still a slight downgrade on Alisson which should encourage Newcastle to test the keeper, especially after his mistake in the draw at St James’ Park earlier in the season. Newcastle have drawn 2+ saves from the opposition keeper in 19 of their 28 games in the Premier League this season (67.8%).

There are few players better suited to the big occasion than Mohamed Salah. The Egyptian is enjoying an excellent season having registered 44 goal contributions across his 29 appearances in the Premier League this season (27 goals, 17 assists). It’s one of the best individual campaigns we’ve seen in the Premier League and there is no better statistic to underline how important he is to this Liverpool side than the fact that he’s been involved in 63% of Liverpool’s goals in the Premier League this season. Salah is averaging 1.92 shots on target per 90 in the Premier League this season, this average sat above 2.0 for large parts of the campaign and has only recently dropped below the line required here. Salah can get back to his usual standard against an opponent he’s already had plenty of success against this season. Salah netted a brace in the 3-3 draw between the sides at St James’ Park and picked up an assist in Liverpool’s 2-0 win over Newcastle at Anfield a few weeks ago. Liverpool can be relentless in their attacking play and could see large periods of possession in this cup final given the absences Newcastle are contending with, particularly down their left hand side. This will encourage Salah who should have opportunities to find the target on a few occasions here.

Tonali has taken up a slightly new role for Newcastle this season. Initially signed as a box to box midfielder, Eddie Howe has tweaked his position slightly to see him sit just behind Bruno Guimaraes and Joelinton which has naturally increased his defensive load this season. Tonali is averaging 1.56 fouls committed per 90 in the Premier League this season and committed a foul in each of the league meetings with Liverpool this campaign. This record includes committing three fouls and being shown a yellow card in the 3-3 draw between the sides earlier in the campaign. Tonali has been shown 5 yellow cards across his 26 Premier League appearances this season and should be regularly tested in his slightly deeper role in which he excelled for Newcastle this season.

Liverpool were shown 4 cards in the 3-3 draw between these sides at St James’ Park earlier in the season in which they committed 17 fouls - a marked increase on the 11.6 fouls committed per game they’re averaging in the Premier League this season. Liverpool have collected 54 yellow cards across their 29 Premier League games this season (1.86 per game). We can expect that total to marginally increase here against a Newcastle side that have drawn 2+ cards from the opposition in 18 of their 28 Premier League games this season (64%). The referee for this game is John Brooks who is averaging 5.18 cards per game across his 22 appointments across all competitions this season. The animosity that was on show in the initial league meeting between these sides should show itself again here given what is at stake.

History, form and quality are all on Liverpool’s side for this cup final. Newcastle have not beaten Liverpool in their last 17 meetings with the Reds (12 wins, five draws) which indicates that this will be an uphill battle for Eddie Howe’s side. They could sneak an advantage if this game goes the distance given that Liverpool had to play 120 minutes and contest a penalty shootout midweek. Newcastle are without Lewis Hall and Anthony Gordon for this final who are both massive misses for Eddie Howe. Newcastle centre a lot of their attacking gameplan in these wide areas with overlapping runs from Hall and Livramento designed to add an extra element to the Magpies’ attack. There is also the added component of Mohamed Salah who is likely to line up against an out of position Tino Livramento which could be a battle that decides the outcome of this cup final.