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Luton v Aston Villa Bet Builder Stats & Predictions

Luton v Aston Villa Bet Builder Stats & Predictions

Friday 1 March, 20242 min read
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Andy Robson

Andy Robson is the most popular betting tipster in the UK. With a combined following in excess of 1 million people across his social media channels, Andy has built a loyal audience by consistently providing quality betting content for over nine years. He is the founder of Andy’s Bet Club, which he launched in 2019.

In this article...

Luton v Aston Villa

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Kick Off: Saturday 2nd March at 17:30
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Competition: Premier League
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Watch Live: Sky Sports Main Event

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Following their crushing FA Cup defeat to Manchester City, Luton remain on home soil to face Aston Villa, turning focus back to their Premier League relegation battle. At the other end of the table, Villa will be hoping to tighten their position in fourth place as the season reaches a crucial phase. 

Luton will certainly be anxious about their chances of surviving relegation as they were demoted to 18th place following Everton’s points deduction being reduced from 10 points to six, which now leaves Luton four points from safety. Coupled with four straight defeats, three coming in the league, the Hatters need to respond - and fast. 

Aston Villa come into this weekend with a five-point cushion inside the top four. Villa will be targeting a third league win on the bounce at Kenilworth Road, a destination where victory has eluded them since 1989, losing each of their last three contests. Having emerged victorious in the reverse fixture, Unai Emery’s men will strive to break that streak and complete the double over the Hatters.

Luton v Aston Villa Cheat Sheet

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🏆 Match stats: The Villans to strike again

Rob Edwards will be looking for an immediate reaction from his boys following their midweek 6-2 thrashing against Man City but he may be left disappointed. Aston Villa certainly look back to their best over recent weeks, securing a valiant victory over Fulham a fortnight ago and an impressive 4-2 victory against fellow relegation battlers Nottingham Forest last week. Aston Villa have been ruthless against newly promoted sides, unbeaten in their last eight matches and picking up seven victories in that run. The Villans faced a blip in form over the turn of the year but have since returned to their usual selves, picking up three wins from their last four in the Premier League, including two away victories. While their attack has been firing non-stop, Luton’s defensive struggles have been their kryptonite in recent weeks, evidently from losing their last four matches by an aggregate score of 15-5. This included conceding three goals at home against basement boys Sheffield United, who for context, registered 13% of their seasonal goal tally in that away victory - facing the fourth-best attack in the league could be tricky this weekend for the Hatters. Luton have registered just one win across their last six matches in all competitions and with Aston Villa desperate to keep putting space between them and fifth-placed Tottenham, a triumph for the away side seems to hold great value in this matchup.

Predictions:

⚽ Aston Villa to win @ 1.70

🥅 Goals stats: A year full of action so far for these two teams

Fixtures containing these two sides so far in 2024 have been the embodiment of goals and action. A minimum of three goals have been scored in all of Luton's and Aston Villa’s last six matches across all competitions, which extends out to 4+ goals in five of the last six for the Hatters. Both teams love creating drama at both ends of the pitch which gives us great reason to attack the goals markets. Luton’s last eight games have averaged 4.75 goals with 3+ goals being netted on all occasions. Three of their last four home games have seen the nets bulge on four or more occasions and this could easily be a repeat. A very impressive 72% of Luton’s Premier League outings this season have seen over 2.5 goals which is very reflective of their recent defensive woes. However, both teams have scored in an even greater 76% of their top-flight games which certainly sheds light on the Hatters' continued goal threat. Luton have scoredd against Man City, Liverpool and Arsenal at home, and the Hatters have scored in 11 of their last 12 games at home. Villa are still without a plethora of key defensive figures going into this one which will certainly leave them vulnerable to rearguard breaches. The Villans have kept only one clean sheet in their last six games across all competitions and facing a Luton side with 13 goals in the same period, both teams to score is an attractive bet here. BTTS has landed in 69% of Aston Villa’s league outings this season with 73% seeing 3+ goals.

Predictions:

⚽ Both teams to score @ 1.45

⚽ Over 2.5 goals @ 1.45

⚽ Over 3.5 goals @ 2.25

🎯 Shooting stats: Luton create opportunities on home soil

As mentioned above, Luton are enjoying a period of confidence up top and there looks to be great value in the prices for total shots on target for the Hatters in this home fixture. Luton are averaging 3.40 shots on target this season but this figure certainly isn't reflective of their recent form. Luton have registered 4+ shots on target in all but one of their last 13 games, which was disrupted in their 4-1 defeat away at Anfield two weeks ago. On half of those occasions they in fact managed 6+ shots on target, including seven against Man City and eight against Brighton - both home fixtures. Kenilworth Road certainly inspires strong performances in this Luton side, registering 5+ shots on target in five of their last seven home games, totalling at an impressive 40 shots on target. Aston Villa have faced at least 4 shots on target in six of their seven fixtures and have certainly shown prominent leaks in their defence in recent times. Ollie Watkins continues to spearhead this Villa frontline, extending his tally to 24-goal contributions this Premier League season with 14 goals and 10 assists - second only to Mohamed Salah. Villa’s hitman has roared back into top form lately with five goals in his last five league outings, scoring in back-to-back fixtures. His goalscoring form can certainly do the talking but what is less obvious is that Watkins has hit the target on 2+ occasions in five of his last six games in all competitions. As he looks to hunt down that space in the England Euro 2024 squad, we should expect him to get involved in this affair from a shooting standpoint.

Predictions:

⚽ Luton to have 4+ shots on target @ 1.80

⚽ Luton to have 5+ shots on target @ 2.80

⚽ Ollie Watkins to score anytime @ 2.10

⚽ Ollie Watkins to have 2+ shots on target @ 2.10

🚩 Corners stats: Kenilworth Road brings set pieces

The tight pitch at Kenilworth Road has proven a reliable target for set pieces so far this season and the prices still provide value for this matchup. We've seen double-digit corners totals in all but two of Luton's home games this term and Saturday’s visitors also have a tendency to rack up the flag kicks. Luton’s fixtures are averaging a respectable 11.32 corners this season, split almost evenly between corners taken and conceded. Aston Villa follow shortly behind with 10.38 corners per 90 this season but do boast the fifth-highest total corners taken in the Premier League, which sees the Villans set up 6.23 corners a game - goals may not be the only high tally on Saturday. There have been 14 corners in each of the last two games at Kenilworth Road of which Luton emerged victors in the corner match bet twice. On both occasions that there hasn't been a double-digit corners count at Kenilworth Road there were a total of nine corners. The home side seemingly lead by example in the corners tallies with Luton racking up 6+ corners in six consecutive Premier League home matches.

Predictions:

⚽ Over 10.5 total corners @ 1.73

⚽ Over 11.5 total corners @ 2.20

⚽ Over 4.5 Luton corners @ 1.73

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