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Man City v Bournemouth
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Kick Off: Saturday 4th November at 15:00
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Competition: Premier League
Almost a week on from their dominant derby victory, Manchester City welcome Bournemouth to the Etihad Stadium on Saturday afternoon. Pep Guardiola’s side are hunting down the first-place position that’s eluded them in recent weeks with Spurs’ continued success seeing them perched at the top. Bournemouth will be looking to bounce back from their midweek defeat to Liverpool that denied them a quarter-final place in the Carabao Cup and build on their victory last weekend.
Manchester City have maintained a flawless record against Bournemouth in the Premier League, winning 17 out of their 19 encounters. They have recently shown a strong liking for this fixture, scoring an impressive 13 goals in their last four games. When playing at home, Manchester City has triumphed in all 12 of their Premier League meetings with Bournemouth, including a resounding 4-0 victory last season. With such a dominant history, the Cityzens are undoubtedly targeting another three points this Saturday.
Conversely, Bournemouth have had a tough start to this Premier League campaign, accumulating only six points. Last week, they managed to claw their way out of the relegation zone with a hard-fought 2-1 victory over fellow strugglers Burnley, marking their first win of the season. Despite this glimmer of hope, Bournemouth have conceded a staggering 48 goals in their 18 previous league clashes with Manchester City. Hence, their chances of securing any points in this matchup appear extremely slim.
In this feature, we will dive into the Man City v Bournemouth Cheat Sheet and discuss any potential betting angles we see value in that you can add to your bet builders. There are plenty of exciting angles for this game, you just have to pick which ones to ride with. Let’s get straight into it!
Man City v Bournemouth Cheat Sheet
This Cheat Sheet and Preview was created using predicted lineups.
You can find Man City v Bournemouth on my Bet Builder stats tool, along with official lineups one hour before kick-off.
Now, for my breakdown and preview with recommended bets…
🟦 Man City stats: Flawless victories at the Etihad
Over the years, the Etihad Stadium has often been considered a formidable venue for visiting teams to secure points. This trend has become even more pronounced in the past year. Manchester City’s dominance at home has been particularly remarkable, with them clinching victory in all 14 of their Premier League matches at the Etihad since the beginning of 2023.
This impressive winning streak at home now stands at 21 games across all competitions, establishing a new record in the Premier League era, and it shows no sign of slowing down.
Erling Haaland is back on the scene again in the Manchester derby, netting two goals and picking up a rather selfless assist after squaring the ball to Phil Foden to slot home into a gaping net. The Norwegian robot has now scored 47 goals in 45 Premier League appearances for Man City, which is two goals higher than Bournemouth’s tally in 48 top-flight games since the start of last season’s campaign. A very worrying stat for the Cherries.
Man City have often seen themselves run away with the top-scoring team title season after season, but despite only sitting two points from first place in the league, Man City trail top scorers Newcastle and Aston Villa by four goals – a replica of last season’s result in this fixture is definitely not an impossible feat against the third-worst defence in the league.
🍒 Bournemouth stats: A relegation battle looming for the Cherries?
Andoni Iraola likely breathed a big sigh of relief following last week’s victory against Burnley after his side’s pitiful start to this season that saw six defeats and three draws in their opening nine Premier League matches.
Having only scored more goals than Crystal Palace, Burnley and Sheffield United this year, there are definitely some concerns in the attacking department.
Dominic Solanke is looking like the key threat again this season for Bournemouth, scoring four goals so far this season.
Solanke scored six goals and finished as the club’s top assister in the league with seven assists on Bournemouth’s return to the Premier League, and he’s already close to bettering that goal tally. It’ll no doubt be a struggle against the Man City defence on Saturday but if there’s to be any threat to the home goal, it’s likely to be through this man.
🎯 Man City offensive stats: Haaland record-breaker once again
Erling Haaland’s arrival to the Premier League has been followed by new ridiculous scoring records and he’s closing in on another historic moment to add to his collection. Haaland is only three Premier League goals away from obliterating Andy Cole’s record for the fewest games played to reach 50 goals.
The former Newcastle and Manchester United striker achieved his half-century in 65 appearances, while Haaland has made only 45. Time (and form) is most definitely on his side and with five league hat-tricks under his belt, there’s definitely a chance this record is broken this week.
The Norwegian would be very difficult to back against and is priced at 1.33 to score anytime. This is VERY short for a goalscorer market so perhaps consider Haaland to score two or more goals at 2.75 or to have three shots on target at 1.83.
With Man City likely to dominate all aspects of this game, all of their attacking assets are great prospects for shots on target markets but the main candidates are all priced quite shortly. A different approach could be for Rodri to have 1 shot on target priced at 1.73.
The Spaniard is pivotal to Pep’s midfield and is brilliant in the transitional play that causes so much trouble for other teams. Rodri has rifled 16 attempts at goal this year, with eight hitting the target and averaging out at 1.09 shots on target per 90 – immense numbers from a defensive midfielder.
His shots are taken from an average of 20.7 yards out and with Man City likely to dominate possession, Rodri picking up the ball on the edge of the area and letting fly could happen again, as it did against Man United last weekend.
Prediction: Erling Haaland to score two or more goals @ 2.75
Prediction: Erling Haaland to have 3+ shots on target @ 1.83
Prediction: Rodri to have 1+ shot on target @ 1.73
🎯 Bournemouth offensive stats: Can Solanke break down the Cityzens?
As alluded to earlier, the Cherries have struggled so far this season in creating and finishing chances and coming up against one of the strongest teams and defences in the league on Saturday will likely see this issue only emphasised.
This is definitely highlighted considering the shortest price for a player to have a shot on target is Dominic Solanke at 2.30, which is fairly uncommon for these markets. However, this could provide value considering his stats this season.
Solanke sits 13th for attempts at goal with 26 efforts, two shy of Spurs duo James Maddison and Son Heung-min and four shy of in-form Julian Alvarez and Jarrod Bowen – not bad going when playing in this Bournemouth side.
Of these efforts, only nine have hit the target and four of those have hit the back of the net so he can be clinical. Solanke averages 0.91 shots on target per 90 minutes, which could be further reduced by the Man City defence, but his average of 2.62 shots on goal per 90 could be a safer angle.
Solanke to have one effort at goal is priced at 1.17 which could play as an odds booster, or to have two shots at goal at a tempting 2.0.
Prediction: Dominic Solanke to have 1+ shots @ 1.17
Prediction: Dominic Solanke to have 2+ shots @ 2.00
🛑 Man City defensive stats: Pep’s press bound to test Bournemouth
Manchester City have been solid at the back this season, conceding only seven goals in their ten outings and currently boasting the best defensive record in the league. They’ve faced the least number of shots this season, the joint second-most clean sheets and the lowest expected goals conceded – light work for the treble winners.
Man City have been a fairly disciplined side this year having only picked up 18 yellow cards this season, one more than Saturday’s visitors. Their top fouler is Rodri with 12 fouls and has picked up three yellows and a red card in that time, but it is expected that this midfield battle will be dominated by Man City which sees his short prices in the fouls markets look tricky.
We think the best approach for these markets will in fact be for Julian Alvarez to commit one or more fouls at 1.2. With Man City likely to see most of the possession this game, the moments in which the ball is not at their feet will likely see the City boys closing down the Cherries very quickly and being the attacking workhorse he is, Alvarez could be a great selection to pick up a foul.
The Argentine has already picked up two yellows this season and accumulated ten fouls, picking up 1.08 fouls per 90 minutes. Accompanied with 0.54 fouls drawn per 90, he definitely gravitates to those attacking possession battles and if Bournemouth are able to put up the barricades and frustrate the City attacking force at all this game, Alvarez may slip up.
Prediction: Julian Alvarez to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.20
🛑 Bournemouth defensive stats: Radu’s time to shine
There are not many positive things to say about the Bournemouth defence so far this year as the Cherries have faced bullying week after week, conceding 21 goals in ten games. Things aren’t looking too positive ahead of this weekend with some key defensive absences, including first-choice keeper Neto who is sidelined because of an ankle injury.
Bournemouth have struggled with conceding corners this year, averaging 6.20 corners against per match, the third-worst tally in the league. Seeing an average of 11 corners per game at the moment, coming up against corner-loving Man City could definitely add more worries to their basket.
Man City average 6.50 corners per game and some of their recent fixtures have seen them register tallies of 12 (v Man United), 9 (v Brighton), 11 (v West Ham), 13 (v Fulham), 12 (v Sheffield United and Newcastle) – some very strong numbers. Man City to take eight or more corners priced at 1.60 could be great value here.
Goalkeeper Ionut Radu will make his second Premier League appearance of the season on Saturday, a slight leap in standard from last week’s fixture against Burnley and this could force him into action. Man City have totalled 162 shots so far this year, a whopping average of 16 efforts on goal per match.
This has produced an average of 6.40 shots on target per 90 minutes and with the likes of Haaland and Alvarez boasting impressive form, there’s going to be some serious danger on the Cherries’ goal.
Neto has made 4.22 saves per 90 so far this season and Radu made two saves against Burnley last week. Radu to make four saves on Saturday is priced at 1.25 which could be a great selection for boosting bet builder odds or alternatively, Man City to have eight or more shots on target at 1.44 could be an alternative higher odds angle.
Prediction: Over 7.5 Man City corners @ 1.60
Prediction: Bournemouth GK to make 4+ saves @ 1.25
Prediction: Man City to have 8+ shots on target @ 1.44
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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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