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Man United v Chelsea 2/1 Bet Builder Tips, Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Man United v Chelsea 2/1 Bet Builder Tips, Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Wednesday 14 May, 20253 min read
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Andy Robson

Andy Robson is the most popular betting tipster in the UK. With a combined following in excess of 1 million people across his social media channels, Andy has built a loyal audience by consistently providing quality betting content for over nine years. He is the founder of Andy’s Bet Club, which he launched in 2019.

Manchester United welcome Chelsea, with both sides coming into this game on the back of bruising defeats to Manchester City and Bayern Munich. 

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Man United v Chelsea Best Bet Builder Bets
  • Man United v Chelsea
  • Premier League
  • 17:30
4 Selections @ 3.17

Man United GK to Make 3+ Saves

I’d be really surprised if Amorim goes with Atlay Bayindir in goal for this game, with the issues that the Turkish goalkeeper has been having, particularly with set pieces, in the early parts of the season. This means we should see a debut for Senne Lammens, who United have signed from Royal Antwerp. 

Lammens comes highly rated, but so did the majority of the signings that currently make up the United squad so we will have to see how he adapts to the Premier League. Chelsea will be encouraged by his presence in the United net and look to test him regularly, with some nerves sure to be in the gloves of the new Manchester United goalkeeper. It is probably one of, if not the most, difficult role in football. Few players come under as much scrutiny as the Manchester United goalkeeper so Lammens will need a big personality to match his shot-stopping ability if he is to succeed at United. 

Lammens was forced into making 174 saves across his 41 appearances in the Belgian First Division (4.24 per 90) and maintained a 77% save percentage throughout the season. Chelsea have drawn 12 saves from opposition keepers across their four Premier League games this season, drawing 4+ saves from Leno and Kelleher in each of their last two matches, so they have the attacking ability to test the new United keeper.

Chelsea to Commit 10+ Fouls

Chelsea are averaging exactly 10.0 fouls committed per game in the Premier League this season across their opening four games of the Premier League season. They covered this line in both meetings against United last season, committing 14 fouls at Old Trafford and 10 fouls at Stamford Bridge. 

Chelsea are a young side, and with that comes a degree of petulance which the manager can’t always account for. The Blues averaged 11.5 fouls committed per game last season and received the most yellow cards of any side (99), which displays the issues that the Blues can have when it comes to discipline. 

Manchester United have a lot of players who regularly win fouls. Dorgu down the left-hand side is a magnet when it comes to winning fouls, and the additions of Cunha and Mbeumo also add an ability to win fouls to the United side, which wasn’t there last season. United have won 48 fouls across their four Premier League matches this season (12.0 per game).

Cole Palmer to have 1+ Shots on Target

Cole Palmer has returned from injury in fine form with a goal against Brentford from the bench and a goal against Bayern Munich as Chelsea fell to a 3-1 defeat midweek at the Allianz Arena. Both goals were expertly taken, and Palmer has been playing with more fluency since the international break. He was carrying a light injury in the early weeks of the season, which partially explains why he didn’t start with this kind of form.

Palmer is easily Chelsea’s most important player. There are three players in the Chelsea side I would consider as undroppable: Palmer, Caicedo, and Cucurella - this trio are a level above the other players in the Chelsea squad and are crucial to their success. You only have to look at Chelsea's performances without one of this trio to see how important they are to the squad, as the Blues’ 2-2 draw with Brentford last time out demonstrated. 

It is a tad worrying that Chelsea have spent over 2 billion pounds since the new ownership took over, and they only have three players that could be considered as clear starters, but Palmer often carries the team on his back himself. Palmer averaged 3.55 shots per 90 and 1.44 shots on target per 90 across his 37 Premier League appearances last season, with this record returning 15 goals. Palmer has a pretty decent record against United; he scored home and away against the Red Devils in his first season at Chelsea.

Marc Cucurella to Commit 1+ Fouls

I think there is a decent case for Cucurella being labelled as the best left back in the Premier League over the last few seasons. He has become incredibly consistent for the Blues after a really tough start to life at Chelsea. One of Cucurella’s best, but paradoxically worst, traits is how aggressive he is against his opposite number, which is set to be Bryan Mbeumo here. 

Cucurella has committed four fouls across his three Premier League starts this season (1.22 per 90), with the Spanish fullback also committing a foul in Chelsea’s 3-1 defeat to Bayern Munich last time out. It’s not often that Cucurella is second best in a duel against a winger, but Michael Olise gave him a really tough time, and he will have his hands full with Bryan Mbeumo and a supporting wingback here. 

Mbeumo has won six fouls across his four Premier League appearances this season (1.50 per 90) and has been one of United’s brighter performers in what has been a tough start to the season for Ruben Amorim. Mbeumo averaged 1.16 fouls won per 90 across his 38 Premier League appearances last season and was hauled down four times across his two appearances against Chelsea for Brentford last season.

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Man United v Chelsea Best Longshot Bets
  • Man United v Chelsea
  • Premier League
  • 17:30
3 Selections @ 26.62

Alejandro Garnacho to Score or Assist

It would be in line with the current Manchester United situation if Garnacho was able to inflict any sort of damage against his former side on Saturday evening. He’s not a popular figure at Old Trafford with the way things ended between the Argentine and the club that developed him, but it is impossible to deny the traits that Garnacho brings to the table. 

Garnacho has the ability to drift through games without causing much threat before popping up with a crucial goal contribution. Of all the U21 attackers in Europe, only Lamine Yamal registered more goal contributions than Garnacho last season, which shows his effectiveness when it comes to having tangible output. 

Garnacho hasn’t been offered a start yet in this Chelsea side, but should get his opportunity here, having come off the bench in recent matches against Brentford and Bayern Munich. Garnacho registered 21 goal contributions (11 goals, 10 assists) across his 58 appearances for Manchester United last season.

Enzo Fernandez to be Shown a Card

Fernandez has shown patches of brilliance in the early parts of the season, but like most of the Chelsea squad, he is prone to showing real frustration when things aren’t going the Blues’ way. This was evident in Chelsea’s 2-0 win over Fulham a few weeks ago when Fernandez stormed down the tunnel at half-time after a poor performance, seemingly ready to scrap anyone that stood in his way. 

He’s yet to pick up his first caution of the season, but this could be the perfect environment for Fernandes to pick up a booking. He’s committed three fouls across his four Premier League appearances this season (0.77 per 90), which was an average that sat at 1.59 fouls committed per 90 last season so we can expect his current duel and foul numbers to increase in the coming weeks. 

Fernandez picked up eight yellow cards last season, with Chelsea finishing with more yellow cards than any other side (99). Only Levi Colwill (9) and Moises Caicedo (11) picked up more cautions than Enzo Fernandez for Chelsea last season, so you have to assume that his first caution of the season isn’t too far away.

Bruno Fernandes to be Shown a Card

I’m really not a fan of Bruno Fernandes in this deeper role, which Amorim has been playing him in. Bruno Fernandes should be as high up the pitch as possible, in my opinion. There aren’t many players in the United squad that can replicate his level of goals and assists, so to have him in the middle of the park is a bit questionable. 

He’s also not the most switched-on defensively, which is another reason to play him a bit higher up the pitch, but it does aid our selection here. Fernandes will be facing up against one of the most balanced midfield set-ups in the Premier League, with Fernandez and Caicedo having a strong record when it comes to winning fouls in the English top flight last season and in the early parts of this season. 

I can see Chelsea winning the midfield battle pretty often, with Fernandes often in the wrong position to secure United’s rest defence, which looks pretty non-existent at the moment. Fernandes was shown a yellow card against Burnley and collected three yellow cards and two red cards last season, which is actually a pretty modest total for a player of his temperament.

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📂 Man United v Chelsea Cheat Sheet

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📈 Man United v Chelsea & Tactics

It feels like we’re reaching the end of another manager’s tenure at Manchester United, with Ruben Amorim reportedly on the brink of the sack following United’s 3-0 defeat against Manchester City last time out. 

He looks like a manager who has all but given up trying to implement his system and style of play, with there being no signs as of yet that he can be effective with it in the Premier League. Two of the three goals they conceded against City were well worked in fairness, but the final one was comical as Haaland got a free run at Bayindir to tuck home the final nail in the coffin.

The last few minutes of that United performance felt like the final few performances we’ve seen under Ole, Jose, Van Gaal and Rangnick over the last few seasons, where the players throw in the towel and the Manchester United managerial carousel swings on to its next victim - rumoured to be one of Glasner, Iraola, Southgate or Pochettino.

Chelsea fell to their first defeat since their loss against Flamengo in the group stages of the Club World Cup last time out as they lost 3-1 against Bayern Munich, courtesy of an own goal, a penalty and a mistake. 

That midweek performance highlights the fact that this Chelsea side is extremely young and inexperienced, especially when it comes to those big away games in Europe.

Maresca won’t panic too much; he will have learnt a lot about his side and will again be here as we see Chelsea in action after a midweek Champions League game for the first time in two years, notably playing against a side that isn’t competing in European competition.

The good news for Chelsea is that Cole Palmer looks to have returned from his injury in fine form, with two goals in his two appearances against Brentford and Bayern since returning to the side. 


🏁 Ref Watch

Peter Bankes

Fouls pg

Yellows pg

Reds pg

Pens pg

21.52

4.00

0.10

0.19

Stats are taken per 90 minutes from Bankes' 97 career Premier League matches.


📊 Man United v Chelsea Stats

  • Ruben Amorim has won just 18 of his 47 matches as Manchester United head coach (38%).

  • Manchester United have conceded 2+ goals in each of their last three matches, including games against Burnley and Grimsby.

  • Manchester United have only won one game so far this season (v Burnley).

  • Chelsea lost their first Champions League match in two years against Bayern Munich during the week.

  • Chelsea have not won in the Premier League at Old Trafford since 2013.

  • Chelsea ran out 1-0 winners over Manchester United in the most recent head-to-head meeting.


Football Predictions at Andy's Bet Club

Keep up with our Football Betting Tips, Accumulator Tips, and Gem Bets, as well as Premier League Predictions and Liverpool v Everton Betting Stats for this weekend, on Andy's Bet Club.

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.


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