This is a big game in the race for the Champions League spots, particularly for Chelsea, who find themselves seven points behind Manchester United ahead of kick-off. Liam Rosenior’s side have lost each of their last three Premier League matches without even scoring a goal. Two of these games have been at home as well, with Chelsea most recently falling to a lifeless 3-0 defeat against Manchester City. 

The initial league meeting between the sides produced exactly three goals as Manchester United came away 2-1 winners over Chelsea, mainly due to Chelsea seeing Rob Sanchez sent off inside the first three minutes of the contest.

Chelsea have seen 3+ goals in each of their last four matches across all competitions, conceding three goals in three of these matches. Chelsea are really missing Trevoh Chalobah and Levi Colwill at the moment - their two best central defenders - so you’d expect the Chelsea backline to suffer again here against a side that has taken more shots than any other Premier League side this season. 

Manchester United’s games have been pretty chaotic under Michael Carrick as well. They’ve seen 3+ goals in each of their last five matches ahead of this trip to Stamford Bridge, and can solely focus on their goal of Champions League qualification with United only battling on one front. 

Robert Sanchez was sent off in the initial meeting between these sides earlier in the season, so he’s got a bit of a point to prove as Chelsea look to get back into the Champions League race. I’ve already mentioned that Chelsea will be without their two best centre-backs here in Chalobah and Colwill, opening up the Blues to a barrage of shots from the most attacking team in the league.

Manchester United have had more shots and shots on target than any other side in the Premier League this season. Their attacking setup is very convincing on paper, with a trio of Cunha, Fernandes, and Amad lining up behind a constantly improving Benjamin Sesko. Sanchez has done pretty well to keep nine clean sheets in the Premier League this season, given the constant defensive issues that Chelsea have faced this term. 

Sanchez has been called into action 85 times across his 30 starts in the Premier League this term, working out to an average of 2.93 saves per 90. For the barrage of criticism that Sanchez receives, he’s actually a pretty good shot stopper, maintaining a save percentage of 69.7% in the Premier League this season.

Joao Pedro is probably the only Chelsea player who has improved under Liam Rosenior so far, with the forward maturing into a decent Premier League striker for a club like Chelsea - registering 14 goal contributions across all competitions since Liam Rosenior arrived at the club.

What is particularly notable about Joao Pedro’s record under Liam Rosenior is how his shot volume has increased. I was a bit unsure of Joao Pedro making the step up to a club like Chelsea when he first signed. It’s a hard position to fill - as any of Chelsea’s number nines for the last 10 years would confirm - but Rosenior has given him the confidence to take more shots at goal.

Joao Pedro has taken 66 shots across his 28 starts in the Premier League this season (2.47 per 90) - which has jumped up from around 1.80 shots per 90 when Rosenior first arrived. 27 of these efforts have found the target (1.01 per 90), also representing an increase since the former Strasbourg boss took the hot seat at Stamford Bridge.

I’ve been disappointed with Caicedo over recent months. There is no doubt that he is an excellent player, but he’s shrunk a little since Rosenior arrived at the club - though he isn’t really being helped with the loose structure Chelsea play with under Liam Rosenior.

Caicedo is often left without support in the middle of the park, making him more likely to give away cheap and silly fouls. His reckless nature has seen him pick up nine yellow cards and one red card across his 26 Premier League starts this term - which is simply an unsustainable record for a player who is expected to be amongst the elite in the Premier League, and Europe as a whole.

Caicedo has committed 42 fouls across these Premier League appearances (1.67 per 90) and committed a foul when these sides met earlier in the season, with Chelsea committing 14 fouls overall. Caicedo will be up against the likes of Bruno Fernandes (1.18 fouls won per 90) and Matheus Cunha (2.08 fouls won per 90), who should be able to exploit the space that Chelsea leave in central areas under this expansive, but vulnerable, system that Rosenior has been playing.

This is pretty generously priced, given the form that Fernandes is in at the moment. I’d consider taking it as a single as well, with Fernandes registering 25 goal contributions in the Premier League this term - only Erling Haaland (29) has registered more goals and assists than Bruno Fernandes in the English top flight.

Fernandes set up another goal last time out as Manchester United fell to a 2-1 defeat against Leeds at home. That represented his 17th assist of the season, meaning that Fernandes is well on track to break the record for the most assists in the Premier League season. 

His underlying numbers are really positive as well, taking 74 shots (2.64 per 90), as well as creating more chances than any other player in the Premier League this season (106 - 3.78 per 90).

Enzo Fernandez is set to return to the starting lineup for Chelsea after missing the last two games against Port Vale and Manchester City - despite being fit to feature in both matches. I think his exclusion from the Chelsea side over the last two weeks is a bit bizarre. It’s hardly a punishment for what he said and robbed Chelsea of their most effective player this season in a big game against Manchester City.

Only Joao Pedro (14) and Cole Palmer (9) have scored more goals for Chelsea in the Premier League than Enzo Fernandez this season (8). If you take away penalties from this count, then Fernandez is Chelsea’s second top scorer in the Premier League with six goals to his name. This tally is the best goal return that Fernandez has managed since joining Chelsea in the Premier League, suggesting that his role has developed over his time at Chelsea to be more of a box-crasher than a holding midfielder.

Fernandez has also picked up the second-most yellow cards for Chelsea in the Premier League (8). Only Moises Caicedo (9) has picked up more yellow cards in the top flight than the Argentine, who was also booked when these sides clashed at Old Trafford earlier in the season.

I really like Benjamin Sesko. He’s got everything you need to be a top-level Premier League striker, and I think he’s shown enough flashes this season for United to stick with him as their main striker for now. 

The main criticism of Sesko at the moment is that he could be more clinical, which is a fair assessment, but the positive sign for me is that he’s getting in really good scoring positions regularly.

This is a massive difference between Sesko and Hojlund last season for United. Hojlund could never really get in those scoring positions that Sesko is regularly picking up, though Sesko is aided by having a clearer attacking structure around him with Bruno Fernandes now operating in his preferred creative role. 

Sesko has had 31 shots on target across his 14 starts in the Premier League this term (1.96 per 90), from a wider shot count of 56 efforts (3.54 per 90). To get this share of efforts on target is really impressive for a young striker, and his ability in the air should cause Chelsea plenty of problems with the Blues being without their two best centre-backs in Chalobah and Colwill.