Leny Yoro to commit at least one foul is substantially overpriced at 2.0 with Paddy Power, implying just a 50% probability. This stands in stark contrast to prices as low as 1.26 elsewhere, which imply a much more realistic 79% likelihood. The value in this line becomes clear when examining Yoro’s season-long trends, recent form, and most crucially, his potential matchups.

Typically operating at left centre-back in a back three, Yoro averages 0.94 fouls per 90 minutes this season, increasing to 1.04 when playing at Old Trafford. He has committed at least one foul in each of his last four starts and in 15 of his 20 total starts this season - a 75% strike rate. Based on this alone, odds closer to 1.33 would more accurately reflect his actual probability.

The matchup here further enhances the value. West Ham’s right-hand side has drawn 18 fouls over their last four matches and presents several high-risk duels for Yoro:

• At right attacking midfield or right striker, either Mohamed Kudus (2.19 fouls won per 90) or Jarrod Bowen (1.68 per 90) will provide consistent dribbling threats.

• At right midfield/wing-back Aaron Wan-Bissaka has drawn four fouls in his last three matches when used higher up the pitch.

Lucas Paquetá adds another layer of pressure. Whether positioned at right or left central midfield, his heatmap shows frequent involvement high on either flank in the attacking third. He leads West Ham in fouls won per 90 with 2.56, creating problems on both sides of the pitch.

Even if Yoro starts on the right side of United’s backline, threat remains down West Ham’s left flank. The interchangeable nature of West Ham’s attackers; Paquetá, Kudus, and Bowen, ensures that wherever Yoro is positioned, he’s likely to be drawn into duels by versatile, foul-drawing opposition.

Considering the consistency in his disciplinary record as well as the attacking threats across both flanks, this selection at 2.0 is far too generous and presents exceptional value.