The referee for this match is Michael Oliver, Oliver has averaged 3.4 cards per match when he has refereed this season. This match also sees two of the most carded teams in the league face each other, Manchester United are the 6th most carded team in the league whereas Everton are the 5th, they average 2.18 and 2.21 cards per 90 respectively. Manchester United do actually draw the lowest amount of cards in the league at 1.32 per 90 but Everton do draw a high number of 2.03 per 90.

Therefore, with two teams that collect a lot of cards and one which is also very capable of drawing cards, as well as a referee that is happy to give out a few cards, I expect this to be a match that could see quite a few cards. I would be very surprised if there were less than 2.5 cards in this match and I think there is good value in selecting over 3.5 cards.

After Luke Shaw was forced off in midweek against Brentford, it is expected that Malacia will start here. Malacia is up against Dwight McNeil, who draws 0.8 fouls per 90 and is one of Everton’s best players under Sean Dyche. Malacia has committed 2.22 fouls per 90 this season and when he starts, he nearly always commits 2 or more fouls.

In 24 starts this season, he has committed 2 or more fouls 16 times and in his last 9 starts, he has committed 2 or more fouls 7 times. I expect Malacia to assert himself as he still wants to prove himself as a real rival for the starting left back position against Luke Shaw. Malacia has a high chance of committing 2 fouls here, so I am backing him to do so here.

Everton allow the 4th most shots on target of any team in the league at 4.59 per 90. Here they have to travel away to a very tough Manchester United, so will likely concede even more shots on target than usual. Antony has been a regular starter for Manchester United recently and averages 1.26 shots on target per 90. Antony has had a shot on target in 9 of his last 11 matches and he is a good fit to have a shot on target here.

Antony’s average shooting distance is from 20.6 yards out, it is common to see defences drop off him when he picks the ball up giving him time to pick his head up and shoot from range. Against a defensive Everton team, I see this happening here, Everton’s defence will drop off focusing on limiting chances in the box which will give Antony a lot of opportunities to shoot from range.

Manchester United have been very solid this season with generally low scoring matches. Remove their 7-0 loss to Liverpool and their 4-0 loss to Brentford and their matches average just 2.4 goals per match. The only one of their last 5 league matches to have seen over 3.5 goals and that was the 7-0 loss to Liverpool. Everton are also a low scoring team, in matches under Dyche they have averaged 2.33 goals per match with 6 of their 9 matches having under 3.5 goals.

Everton will go with a gameplan to stop United and see what they can do on the counter and won’t want a high scoring match. United are without Casemiro and Luke Shaw so will not be at their strongest and may struggle to break Everton down here. As both teams are generally involved in lower scoring matches, I expect this game to have less than 3.5 goals.