Marseille v PSG Cheat Sheet
Marseille v PSG
Marseille’s home encounter with PSG in Ligue 1 on Sunday promises to be a vital match in the race for the French title.
Inconsistency since the World Cup means that PSG’s advantage at the summit of Ligue 1 is just five points, and that lead would have been slimmer but for a wobble from Lens, who have dropped off the pace to fourth.
The cracks in the capital are nonetheless beginning to show. Earlier this week at training, there was a confrontation between Lionel Messi and Vitinha over a challenge that was deemed too dangerous. It sums up the tense situation that PSG find themselves currently.
Christophe Galtier’s side are struggling in Europe, chasing a 1-0 deficit against Bayern Munich after being outplayed at Parc des Princes, while they were knocked out of the Coupe de France a matter of weeks ago at the Velodrome by Marseille.
Indeed, Igor Tudor’s side are on a roll. They have won 12 of their last 14 matches in all competitions and are threatening an astonishing comeback in the title race. Out of Europe, they have channelled their energy effectively towards the domestic front and will be supported by what is expected to be a record home crowd on Sunday.
The Velodrome is never an easy venue for PSG to visit, and with the home side so buoyant ahead of this encounter, that will particularly be the case here.
This is likely to be a tight match, with fixtures between these clubs typically competitive and hard fought. Looking through the last seven meetings between OM and PSG, not a single match has seen more than three goals, and only a trio of these have seen more than three.
Marseille are a team that have the ability to play in a tighter manner. This has already been displayed in their previous matches against France’s biggest teams. Versus Rennes, PSG, Lens, Lyon, Lille and Monaco, only two of their seven previous fixtures have produced more than 2.5 goals – and only one of those saw more than four. Don’t expect the home team to be drawn into a slugfest.
PSG, meanwhile, will be careful in this match. They have already lost to Monaco, Rennes and Lens away from home in 2023, which could see them play in a slightly more conservative manner, especially with Neymar missing. The manner in which they invited Lille back into last weekend’s game after being 2-0 up was alarming and is the type of lapse that they cannot afford in this type of high-stakes affair.
If backing a single, looking at 2.25 on under 2.5 goals looks tidy value given the head-to-head history between the clubs, but in order to keep the risk lower in the bet builder, we’re going for under 3.5 goals, which still looks a nice price given that it is liable to be a winner.
Marco Verratti may only be priced at evens to be shown a card, but that still represents excellent value on a player who does not even need to commit fouls to get himself into the referee’s book. With a mouth as quick as Kylian Mbappe’s feet, the Italian often finds himself in hot water simply because of dissent. This was case in last weekend’s match against Lille.
Indeed, Verratti has been shown a card in exactly half the Ligue 1 games he has played this season: eight times these have been yellow while he was also sent of in late January against Reims, costing him a three-game ban that he has not yet found his rhythm from.
An emotional player, this is the type of big-game atmosphere that is tailor-made for Verratti to be cautioned, particularly with a big and hostile home crowd present. He will stand up to that, but his battling spirit could still get him in trouble.
Somewhat surprisingly, he has only been booked six times in 21 previous matches against OM, but given that he is operating effectively as a one-man midfield at times in an area where PSG are really struggling, it would be brave to back against number seven arriving here.
The first time that referee Clement Turpin took charge of Le Classique, it proved to be an eventful affair. As a young referee at the Velodrome back in 2013, he sent off PSG’s Thiago Motta in the first half, awarded two penalties and showed seven yellow cards in a fiery affair that was decided in favour of the Parisiens by a Zlatan Ibrahimovic penalty.
Since that baptism of fire from the official, he has overseen five more Marseille-PSG fixtures, which have been altogether more sedate affairs. These games have seen just eight cards shown. He is an official who can typically keep a lid on these games.
Certainly, his style this season has been to approach the big games with a softly-softly style where possible, though he did flash six cards in the midweek fixture between Manchester United and Barcelona. This is not typical of him, though.
He has overseen big OM and PSG matches already this month, with just one yellow card each in Marseille’s derby loss to Nice and PSG’s defeat in Monaco.
With Turpin showing five of more cards in two of the 12 Ligue 1 matches he has overseen this term, this looks like a relatively safe bet.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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