When analysing this match it is difficult to get away from a couple of things; both men are playing exceptional tennis, and Carlos Alcaraz is so tough to beat at this tournament.

Wimbledon is a tournament that tends to encourage repeat winners on the men's side of the draw. This is partially down to the smaller pool of players who get to an elite level of competance on the surface.

That is what Jannik Sinner is dealing with right now. He has reached that level of proficiency, but it has been incremental steps. One wonders now whether beating Novak Djokovic and reaching the final this year is the incremental step for 2025, and if actually going that one step further and beating Alcaraz to win the tournament might be for next year. It is reminiscent of Rafael Nadal's rise and how that took the Spaniard a few attempts at beating Roger Federer in the final before finally doing it.

Alcaraz just looks supreme, and his best tennis is so often saved for the very biggest occasions and the tightest moments within them. The best example of this was probably the fourth set tiebreak against Fritz, winning four points in a row from 6-4 down to reach the final. 

We also saw it against Sinner at match points down, and in the champions tiebreak, at the French Open. That level is probably beyond even Jannik Sinner at this time.

Given the level that we have seen from both players this tournament, combined with their history, it is difficult to see how this could result in a blowout win for one player or the other.

Grass court tennis is obviously more serve-defined than clay, so the balance of points will lean more to the server, but they are so evenly matched in that department as well.

41.5 is a high line, so the bookies are being defensive over the prevailing narrative of these players going long, but it still could be covered by a four-set match with a single tiebreak and single breaks in the other sets.

A five-set match would almost certainly cover this line as well. They played an incredible 59 games in the Roland-Garros Final last month.

If we are expecting a long match then this line should be pretty accessible for Alcaraz.

He has really stepped up his serve in the latter stages of this tournament, hitting the corners with good speed. He has hit 13 aces against Taylor Fritz and Cameron Norrie, and 22 in four sets against Andrey Rublev.

He only managed seven in the Roland-Garros final, but obviously that was on slow clay. Taking a similar serving performance to that and putting it on grass would put that well over nine aces.

Throughout the whole of that epic French Open final Jannik Sinner served zero double faults.

There is potentially more likelihood of double faults here simply because of how much second serves can be capitalised upon on the grass with Alcaraz's quick returns giving him a potential advantage. This could see Sinner push his second serve a bit more than usual, but his consistency on that shot is superb.

Sinner served two against Djokovic in the semi-final, one against Shelton, three against Dimitrov in only two sets, and then was under this line two of his three opening round matches too. He is yet to serve more than three in a match this tournament.