Harry Kane has been a lot shorter for a shot on target during this World Cup so this is a decent price for him to find the target at least once in what looks to be a challenging assignment for England on paper.

Kane is clearly the star of this England side, he’s scored five goals already from 18 shots (4.58 per 90), including a brace against DR Congo last time out to spare England the embarrassment of an early exit. He’s seen nine of his efforts find the target (2.29 per 90) and will be an obvious threat to this Mexico backline.

Kane scored eight goals across eight starts during qualifying and has really never looked sharper in the final third as he does at the moment, benefitting from Tuchel building the team around his strengths. He averaged 2.11 shots on target per 90 during qualifying, 2+ shots on target is also worth looking at (2.6).

Raul Jimenez scored a wonderful goal in Mexico’s Round of 32 clash with Ecuador to guarantee their spot in this stage of the tournament. He’s been effective when leading the line for his country, scoring two goals across his three starts from 10 shots (3.91 per 90).

He’s seen four of his efforts find the target (1.57 per 90) and has been using his head often with half of his total efforts so far being headed shots. This is not that surprising when looking at how Mexico play, they have a real advantage with the altitude here and look to make the most of that by making the pitch wide and seeking out their striker through crosses from their fullbacks. 

Jimenez has found the target in all three of his matches at the World Cup and will offer a threat to England, particularly aerially as his direct opponents in Konsa and Guehi may be a bit vulnerable to those crosses from Mexico’s fullbacks as they aren’t as dominant in the air as someone like Jimenez.

Marc Guehi has been fouled in each of his three starts at the World Cup so far, drawing 2+ fouls in two of these games - including winning seven (!) fouls against Ghana.

It’s clearly a strong part of Guehi’s game and he’s got the ideal opponent to be fouled at least once again here. Guehi will line up against Raul Jimenez, who can be overly aggressive which his challenges and has committed four fouls across his three starts so far (1.57 per 90).

Mexico like going long into Jimenez, so we can expect the now Wolves striker to have quite a few battles with the likes of Konsa and Guehi and there should be a few occasions where he oversteps the mark and brings Guehi to the ground.

Guehi averaged 1.09 fouls won per 90 during the most recent Premier League campaign, so it’s clearly an area where he excels and he has a promising direct opponent here to win at least one foul again.

The market really isn’t sure about England’s chances in this game, their lines on quite a few angles have been lowered compared to their other matches - mainly due to the altitude and intense atmosphere of the Azteca.

I do think this has been overplayed quite a bit. It’s definitely a factor, but you can’t talk about the conditions without looking at the individual quality that will take to the field. Player for player, England are a much better side than Mexico and Thomas Tuchel’s side can produce those individual moments of brilliance as a result. 

England have registered 5+ corners in all four of their World Cup matches, they rely on these situations quite a bit which isn’t that surprising as Tuchel mentioned multiple times in the build up to the tournament that he wanted to assemble a side that mirrored the style of the Premier League. 

Mexico are conceding 4.00 corners per game at the World Cup and I think they will also fall victim to a high corner count from the Three Lions, which England have shown no reason why they would not cover other than being heavily impacted by the conditions - a factor that I think has now been completely overexaggerated.

Raul Rangel is one of only two keepers who are yet to concede at the World Cup and have a 100% save percentage - the other being Spain’s Unai Simon.

Mexico’s defensive organisation has been impressive at times, though Rangel has been there when they’ve needed him. He’s made six saves across his four starts (1.55 per 90), though England can definitely test him more regularly as the best side that Mexico have had to take on so far.

England have been creating quite a lot of chances, no side has missed more big opportunities than the Three Lions (15), which may sound like a negative stat on paper but it shows that Tuchel’s side are getting in positions to hurt the opposition.

England are averaging 6.80 shots on target per game at the World Cup and have drawn 2+ saves from the opposition keeper in all four of their World Cup assignments to date.