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Middlesbrough v Aston Villa Bet Builder Stats & Predictions

Middlesbrough v Aston Villa Bet Builder Stats & Predictions

Friday 5 January, 20243 min read
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Andy Robson

Andy Robson is the most popular betting tipster in the UK. With a combined following in excess of 1 million people across his social media channels, Andy has built a loyal audience by consistently providing quality betting content for over nine years. He is the founder of Andy’s Bet Club, which he launched in 2019.

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Middlesbrough v Aston Villa

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Kick Off: Saturday 6th January at 17:30
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Competition: FA Cup
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Watch Live: BBC One

The FA Cup may be in focus here on Andy's Bet Club this weekend as we have a selection of FA Cup bet builders and some FA Cup acca tips. As ever though, we have plenty of coverage of football from elsewhere, including a variety of expert football tips & predictions from across Europe and beyond.

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It will be a tough ask, but Middlesbrough will fancy their chances of a cupset when they host Aston Villa.

Villa are gunning for an unlikely Premier League title, as well as the possibility of European glory in the Conference League. Unai Emery is obviously something of a cup specialist, as we have seen during his time with Sevilla, but also with Villarreal and Paris St. Germain.

However, Middlesbrough have a very good cup record as well. They are in the semi-finals of the League Cup already this season and have strong recent traditions of cup success both at home and in Europe themselves. Michael Carrick will be putting out a strong XI to try and progress through to the next round.

Aston Villa actually have a fairly shocking recent FA Cup record. They haven’t won a match in the competition since 2016, seven third-round defeats in a row. They have won the competition seven times, albeit not since 1957, though they were runners-up in 2015.

Middlesbrough are sitting in mid-table in the Championship, something of a disappointment given their 4th-placed finish last season. Carrick has had to deal with the loss of a few key players and the form has been too inconsistent to mount a promotion challenge at this stage. The FA Cup could provide a boost to their mentality at this stage.

There are lots of angles to consider when putting together a bet builder for this fixture. To do this we have the aid of our fantastic cheat sheet and with some extra analysis in certain aspects of the match, there are some excellent angles to add to a bet builder.

Middlesbrough v Aston Villa Cheat Sheet

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This Cheat Sheet and Preview was created using predicted lineups.

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⚽ Match stats: Middlesbrough data better than their league position would suggest

As a team challenging in the top four of the Premier League, Aston Villa obviously have a number of impressive aspects to their play. Their style of play, a very high line, and a high press to go alongside it, means that a lot of their play is in their opponents’ half. This has meant that the Villains have a lot of shots, have a good shot on target ratio, and generate high xG numbers. Indeed, Villa rank inside the top six for xG created, shots on target, and big chances. A test for a Middlesbrough defence which, in terms of goal conceded, looks poor, but, in terms of chances conceded is actually one of the better defences in the Championship. Middlesbrough have been on the end of more brilliant, low-xG goals, than would be expected at this stage of the season. Part of Middlesbrough’s problem has been their home form, with only 14 goals scored in 13 home matches in the league. They have found it difficult against packed defences, something, however, they will not encounter with Villa. This could give the likes of Morgan Rogers, Isaiah Jones, and Emmanuel Latte Lath the space in behind that they crave, but rarely receive in the Championship. This is no easy task for Villa, especially with their away record not matching their home record, and the potential for rotation in their playing squad.

Predictions:

⚽ Middlesbrough double chance @ 2.38

🎯 Shooting stats: Aston Villa ranking amongst the elite in the country with Watkins the star

Ollie Watkins is the standout player in terms of Aston Villa’s attacking output. However, Emery may see this as an ideal time to give his main striker a rest. If so, Jhon Duran could lead the line and it is harder to get an accurate reading on his work given his lack of playing time. However, on limited minutes, he seems to get a lot of shots away. Nicolo Zaniolo had a run in the team on his arrival, but has had more of a rotation role of late. Should the Italian start he offers some nice value, but wait for the team news before backing him. He averages 3.4 shots per game, even more than Watkins, and picking him to take three shots here would pay well. Another one to back if he features is Leander Dendoncker. The former Wolves man is a threat from set pieces, as well as the opportunity he may get from central midfield in open play, He is often a goal threat, scoring at Old Trafford over Christmas, and is priced nicely for a couple of shots. For Middlesbrough, Isaiah Jones could be the ace in the pack. He is priced way lower than the likes of Latte Lath and Sam Greenwood, but is likely to start on the right of the attack. His pace is going to be a key weapon against Villa’s line, and though he is right-footed and plays on the right, his shot numbers of late have been good. Jones has taken at least one shot in eight consecutive matches, half of those matches have seen him take three shots as well, a 4/1 shot in this match.

Predictions:

⚽ Isaiah Jones to have 2+ shots @ 2.38

⚽ Isaiah Jones to have 3+ shots @ 5.0

⛳ Corner stats: High volume of corners expected at the Riverside

Middlesbrough are one of the highest corner volume teams in the Championship with almost 12 per match that they are involved in. They usually have the advantage at home by around 2 corners per match, but intriguingly Aston Villa actually have a very good away corner ratio themselves, despite their poorer away record. It is difficult to predict which team may have the upper hand on the number of corners that they get in this one, it is obviously highly dependent on game state as well, but that does make the price on Middlesbrough to win most corners an appealing one given the size of the price. The overs market on corners is worth a look as well given the data from both Middlesbrough and Aston Villa’s seasons so far.

Predictions:

⚽ Over 10.5 match corners @ 2.1

⚽ Middlesbrough corner match bet @ 3.4

🟨 Cards stats: Aston Villa favourites for cards with midfielders to the fore

All of Aston Villa’s regular midfielders have a number of cards to their name already this season. This indicates that the system is designed for them to stop any dangerous attacks down the middle before they get started. With Jonny Howson and Dan Barlaser in the Middlesbrough midfield being able to get the home side ticking, it would not be a surprise to see a Villa midfielder pressing onto them very hard. Jhon Duran has four yellows this season from only 9 fouls and around 200 minutes of play. If he starts he could be a big contender for a yellow card, but again, wait for the team news before backing this one. From a Middlesbrough perspective, Howson has been mentioned already as potentially being in a midfield battle, and he leads Middlesbrough’s card count despite missing the first few games of the season. Morgan Rogers has also got a few cautions to his name, and his foul count is high compared to his minutes on the field.

Predictions:

⚽ Aston Villa to receive the most cards @ 3.2

⚽ Jonny Howson to be shown a card @ 3.75

⚽ Morgan Rogers to be shown a card @ 5.0

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