Boro are nine unbeaten in the Championship but they appear to have left their charge for the top six too late.

Over the season as a whole Middlesbrough are actually fifth on expected points (xPts), with the sixth-best expected goals for (xGF) and joint sixth best expected goals against (xGA) figures in the league. This all demonstrates that, in essence, Middlesbrough have performed at a level that should have them in closer contention to the play-offs.

This also illustrates how tough a task this is for promotion-chasing Leeds. Yes, the Yorkshire club are, statistically the best team in the league in all of xPts, xGF, and xGA, but there seems to be something extraneous at the moment that is stopping them from getting over the line in matches at the moment.

Middlesbrough haven’t conceded a home goal since 6th March, almost four full games ago, and, if anything, it is Leeds’ away form that has held them back from cementing themselves in the automatic promotion places already.

However, Middlesbrough are unlikely to just sit in and allow Leeds to keep the ball as much as they have been able to do in their last few games. Tactically it might be the best thing for Carrick to do given Leeds’ recent results, but Carrick is likely to stick to his own principles, which could allow Leeds more space to score.

One of the biggest changes in Middlesbrough’s season which has allowed them to improve their results has been how Emmanuel Latte Lath has improved his goal output since his return to the team following a short injury.

Latte Lath had seemed sharp and was getting a lot of chances in his first spell, but was perhaps still acclimatising to the league. Now he has hit a rich vein of form and his data is strong. Over the course of the season Latte Lath averages 1.67 shots on target per 90, which makes his price in this match seem quite fair.

Crysencio Summerville will continue to be backed as well. The Dutchman continues to have the full backing of his manager as he plays every minute at the moment.

There has been only one match this season in which Summerville hasn’t managed at least one shot, and whilst his shot on target rate is only average, it still gives a good chance of landing this bet.

Leeds are favourites in the corner match bet market here. It is against the grain for away sides to have more corners in the Championship, even if they are judged as the better team ahead of the match.

There isn’t a great deal between the teams here, we have established this already, but Leeds’ need is probably greater. If the match is level or if Leeds are behind during the match then we can expect the Whites to be pushing on and getting more pressure on Middlesbrough.

Boro have conceded more corners than they have earned in four of the last five matches, even though they have actually earned a decent number themselves. There have been 10 or more corners in all of Middlesbrough’s last five matches.

Leeds have been hammering most teams in corners recently, 12-1, 13-2, and 9-2 have been their last three match corner facts. It is perhaps no coincidence that they haven’t won any of those matches either.

Isaiah Jones is Middlesbrough’s most fouled player, perhaps unsurprisingly given his ball-carrying and pace. This could put Junior Firpo under some pressure.

Firpo isn’t a particularly bad fouler, he is averaging around a single foul per match, but given the opponent that he could face in this match, it seems more likely than not that he will commit at least one foul in this match.

We will also revisit a profitable tactic when looking at Leeds matches. Georginio Rutter drops into deep central areas to collect the ball and set off on his powerful dribbles to attack the box.

Lewis O’Brien is the most likely player to foul in Middlesbrough’s central midfield, he is averaging over a foul per 90. However, Jonny Howson is wily and experienced, and a better price. He is under a foul per match in terms of average, but this is an interesting match up and, against his former team, he should be up for doing anything to prevent Leeds from going ahead here.