Monaco have hit the ground running this season, establishing themselves as early frontrunners in Ligue 1. Under the guidance of Adi Hütter, they’ve amassed 20 points from their opening eight games, putting them in a commanding position at the top of the table.

Their form in Europe has also been impressive, remaining unbeaten after an emphatic win over Barcelona and a solid draw against Dinamo Zagreb. The team’s attacking prowess, combined with a newfound defensive solidity, makes them a formidable opponent. Monaco’s recent success isn’t a fluke; they’ve maintained a 60% win rate in their last five European fixtures, which includes notable victories over European heavyweights like Barcelona and Bayer Leverkusen.

Their opponents, FK Crvena Zvezda, have been dominant domestically, sitting at the summit of the Serbian Super Liga with a comfortable 8-point lead and a +28 goal difference after 11 games. However, their domestic form hasn’t translated to European competition.

The Serbians have lost their last nine consecutive away games in Europe, conceding two or more goals in 10 of their last 11 matches on the continent. Given this poor European track record and Monaco’s strong form, it’s difficult to see FK Crvena Zvezda pulling off an upset here. Monaco’s previous Europa League success against the Serbian side—doing the double over them in 2022—further bolsters the case for a Monaco win. At odds of 1.33, Monaco should comfortably secure victory at Stade Louis II.

While FK Crvena Zvezda’s European struggles are well documented, they remain a side capable of producing attacking moments, even against higher-quality opposition. In their domestic league, they’ve already netted 35 goals in just 11 matches—an average of 3.19 goals per game.

Despite their string of defeats in Europe, the Serbian side has managed to generate a respectable number of shots on target in most of their European fixtures. In fact, they’ve registered three or more shots on target in 80% of their last 10 matches across all European competitions, with only Manchester City and Bodo/Glimt managing to limit their output to two.

Monaco, on the other hand, while defensively sound, has allowed at least three shots on target in 80% of their last five matches. This suggests that FK Crvena Zvezda might have opportunities to test the Monaco goalkeeper, even if they don’t pose a major threat in terms of goals in Europe.

Given FK Crvena Zvezda’s offensive numbers domestically and Monaco’s recent defensive patterns, there is a case for backing the Serbian side to achieve at least three shots on target in this match.

Thilo Kehrer, Monaco’s German defender, has shown a consistent tendency to commit fouls in European matches. In his last five starts in Europe, Kehrer has committed a total of eight fouls, including four against Dinamo Zagreb. His aggressive style of play, combined with his defensive responsibilities, often places him in situations where he’s forced to commit fouls.

Given FK Crvena Zvezda’s ability to draw fouls—averaging 11 fouls won per game in their last 10 European matches—Kehrer is a prime candidate to be involved in some physical duels and likely infractions.

The Serbian side’s style of play involves direct running and aggressive attacking transitions, which often force defenders into making last-ditch challenges. Kehrer’s role in Monaco’s backline means he will likely be tasked with managing FK Crvena Zvezda’s counter-attacks, which could see him commit a foul.

This fixture between Monaco and FK Crvena Zvezda has all the makings of a heated encounter, particularly when it comes to the discipline of both sides. Monaco’s last 10 matches have seen a total of 48 cards, averaging 4.8 cards per game.

In their last six matches, they’ve accumulated 31 cards, with at least five cards shown in 83% of those games. FK Crvena Zvezda, meanwhile, have a similar record when it comes to card-heavy games, averaging 4.3 cards per match in their last 10 fixtures.

The last time these two sides met in 2022, a combined total of 11 cards were shown across two games, averaging 5.5 cards per match. This trend suggests that we could be in for another card-laden affair on Tuesday. With both teams involved in high-stakes European football and both possessing players who aren’t afraid to get stuck in, the likelihood of seeing four or more cards in this clash is strong.

With Folarin Balogun sidelined due to a shoulder injury, Swiss forward Breel Embolo is expected to return to Monaco’s starting lineup for their upcoming Champions League clash. Embolo has consistently been a reliable attacking option for Monaco, particularly in European fixtures, where he averages 1.03 shots on target per 90 minutes.

Despite limited recent starts, often coming off the bench, his overall record across the past three seasons shows an impressive 1.41 shots on target per 90 minutes. Monaco, as a team, have maintained a strong offensive output, averaging 5.70 shots on target in their last 10 Champions League games.

This sets the stage for Embolo to be heavily involved in the attack, especially against FK Crvena Zvezda, who have conceded 4.80 shots on target on average in their last 10 European matches. Given these stats, it’s highly likely that Embolo will be a key threat, testing the Serbian defense throughout the match.

Denis Zakaria has been a key figure in Monaco’s midfield this season, providing both defensive stability and attacking threat. The Swiss international has taken on a more advanced role under Adi Hütter, and his willingness to shoot from distance has been evident in recent games.

In his last seven starts, Zakaria has attempted nine shots, with five of those coming in his last four matches. Notably, he has tested the goalkeeper in 75% of his last four games, including against Lille and Dinamo Zagreb.

With FK Crvena Zvezda conceding an average of 18.4 shots per game in their last 10 European fixtures, there is a strong likelihood that Zakaria will get opportunities to unleash a shot on goal. His positioning in Monaco’s system allows him to find space outside the box, and against a team that has struggled defensively in Europe, Zakaria having at least one shot on target could offer good value in this market.

Timi Max Elsnik has quickly become a key figure in FK Crvena Zvezda’s midfield, tasked with doing the dirty work to disrupt opposition attacks. Since his arrival, the Slovenian midfielder has taken on the role of a combative enforcer, often engaging in challenges and breaking up play. This aggressive style of play makes Elsnik prone to committing fouls, as evidenced by his recent statistics.

In his last four starts, he has committed seven fouls, averaging nearly two per game, with 75% of these matches seeing him hit at least two fouls. His role as a midfield destroyer will be crucial in this clash, especially as he faces a Monaco side filled with attacking talent.

Monaco’s front line is brimming with dangerous players, including Eliesse Ben Seghir, Breel Embolo, Takumi Minamino, and Aleksandr Golovin, all of whom are adept at drawing fouls through quick movement and skilful play.

The French side has won an average of 14.60 fouls per game in their last five matches, indicating that Elsnik will likely be involved in several challenges throughout the game. With Monaco’s fluid attacking movement, particularly in the final third, Elsnik may find himself stretched defensively, increasing the likelihood of him committing at least two fouls. At 2.25, this bet could offer significant value as Elsnik looks set for a busy and physical outing in the midfield battle.

Goals seem likely in this clash between Monaco and FK Crvena Zvezda, with both sides showing the potential to contribute to a high-scoring affair. FK Crvena Zvezda has been exceptional in the Serbian Super Liga, boasting a +28 goal difference after just 11 matches. Their dominance in Serbia is clear, as the next-best team trails significantly with only a +7 goal difference.

However, their goal-scoring exploits in the domestic league have not translated to European success. Despite their high output in Serbia, the Serbian side has struggled defensively in Europe, conceding at least twice in their last nine consecutive away European fixtures. A staggering 87% of their last 15 European matches have produced three or more goals, reflecting their vulnerability on the continental stage.
Monaco, on the other hand, has been more consistent in both domestic and European competitions.

The French side has scored at least twice in five consecutive European fixtures, with all of these games producing three or more goals. Adi Hütter’s side has developed a reputation for exciting, high-scoring matches, with six of their last seven games featuring over 2.5 goals.

The only exception was a goalless draw against Lille, which can be considered an anomaly given their usual attacking threat. With FK Crvena Zvezda’s defensive frailties in Europe and Monaco’s ability to score freely, there’s a strong likelihood of this match featuring three or more goals.

Additionally, each of FK Crvena Zvezda’s last six matches across all competitions has produced three or more goals. Given the attacking talents on display and both teams’ recent goal-scoring records, backing over 2.5 match goals at 1.50 seems like a solid bet for this encounter.