Before Saturday’s visit of Milan, Monza have picked up a total of 24 cards since the start of the season – an average of 2.40 per game and a tally that ranks them as the fifth dirtiest team in the division at the time of writing.

By comparison, Milan have picked up 19 cards from their first nine games of the Serie A campaign, ranking them 15th in the aggression table. When also taking their average card count of 2.11 into consideration, backing a maximum of four cards in total is worth consideration this weekend.

Monza have found it difficult to earn corners this season and this is reflected by an overall tally of 30 since the 2024/25 edition of Serie A got underway. An average of 3.00 per game and when looking at their average against of 4.30, it suggests that they are earning less than they are giving away.

Something to be wary of before Milan’s visit and considering Paolo Fonseca’s men are averaging 6.44 per league game, tipping double figures in total on Saturday could be an option. However, due to Milan only conceding an average of 3.44, our hunch is that the maximum corner count ends at nine.

Absent against Napoli on Tuesday, raring to go for this Saturday and with Christian Pulisic set to be deployed in Milan’s attack once more.

Especially as the former Chelsea player has registered an average of 1.00 shots on target across the nine games he has played this season in Serie A, and although he was unable to at least maintain that average in midweek, our expectation is that he does precisely that at the U-Power Stadium.

Monza are averaging just 6.5 shots per game – the lowest in Serie A before Round 11 of the season and although they are not registering much, they are still averaging a goal a game in 2024/25. An element of efficiency from Alessandro Nesta’s men that should not be ignored on Saturday.

Certainly not when mapped against the visitors’ own output in front of goal and with Paulo Fonseca’s side averaging 1.78 goals this season, this coupled with at least three goals being scored in all of Milan’s four away league outings suggest at least two in total on Saturday should be achievable.

Positioned as the fulcrum within Milan’s midfield, it is Youssouf Fofana’s job to protect the defensive line behind him while also trying to supply an extra body in attack where necessary. One player per team has to undertake a thankless task and one that the 25-year-old rather relishes.

This role usually leads to a number of conversations with the referee, and with the former Monaco midfielder having picked up an average of 0.38 fouls this season, he is not immune from giving away free kicks. If that immunity is not in place on Saturday, the first leg of this bet builder is a winner.

Monza have certainly had a tough start to the season and one that Warren Bondo has felt the full force of. The midfielder has appeared in nine of the 10 matches that Alessandro Nesta’s men have contested in Serie A, and across those, he has been fouled an average of 2.00 times per game.

With Bondo now also back from a recent ban, it means he will likely slot back into the centre of the park on Saturday and if he is to go to combat with Youssouf Fofana in midfield, this battle could end up being a profitable one if the 21-year-old is on the end of some rather robust tackles.

Be it in all league outings this season, Monza are averaging 1.00 goals per game. 10 goals across as many Serie A matches. Five goals in five attempts when filtered down to their showings in front of their own support and they have scored in each of their last four outings at the U-Power Stadium.

Milan have averaged 1.50 goals per game on the road, making them the joint-ninth highest away scorers in Serie A. This is in addition to an average of 1.75 against across the same period. These are not the numbers that suggest that a total of four goals or more will be scored this Saturday.

Milan Djuric is a nice price for a card having already picked up two this season.

The Bosnian is fouling at a rate of 1.23 per 90, while he posted 1.64 and 1.94 per 90 in the last two Serie A seasons.

3.75 feels generous given the regularity of those infringements that could lead to a booking.