I think this will be a really competitive game that has plenty of narratives running alongside it, one of which is Antonio Conte taking on his former side as he attempts to get Napoli into the top 24 and into the play-off round.

Conte has never found the Champions League easy and is yet to get past the quarter-final stage with any of the illustrious clubs he’s managed. This record partly explains why Napoli have struggled in the Champions League this season, winning just two of their seven matches so far.

Napoli saw BTTS in their most recent Champions League assignment as they drew 1-1 with Copenhagen, meaning that likely only a win will be enough here to give Napoli a chance of finishing inside the top 24. 

Chelsea saw BTTS last time out as they recorded a second Premier League win under Liam Rosenior. Chelsea were solid for most of that game, but conceded 7+ shots in the final 15 minutes of the game, when Crystal Palace were down to 10 men. This was a little bit of inexperience from Rosenior, who made some negative substitutions when Chelsea were in control of the game, allowing Palace back into the contest.

It’s worth comparing the experience of the two managers here, even though Conte doesn’t have a brilliant record in the Champions League - this will be Rosenior’s first ever game at this level, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see some naivety from the young Chelsea boss. 

The league phase format really lends itself to goals, as a draw suits neither of the sides, promising an exciting contest. The final day of the league phase in the Champions League last season saw an average of 3.5 goals per game, and we can expect an end-to-end contest here.

McTominay has impressed for Napoli again this season after a brilliant debut year with the club, in which he won the Scudetto and was crowned MVP in Serie A. He’s pitched in with 12 goal contributions across his 31 appearances in all competitions for Napoli this season and is averaging 2.36 shots per 90 in the Champions League.

This shot volume has returned four goals for McTominay, making him Napoli’s top scorer in the competition. McTominay is only 2nd to Rasmus Hojlund in Napoli’s scoring ranks in Serie A this season, with five goals to his name so far from 55 shots in total (2.75 per 90).

This consistency in McTominay’s shot numbers across the two competitions shows just how much Napoli rely on the Scotsman as a threat in the final third - particularly in the absence of Romelu Lukaku and Kevin De Bruyne. McTominay has had 2+ shots in each of his last five Champions League appearances - managing 3+ shots in three of those games.

Marc Cucurella is set for a difficult evening here with two opponents down his side due to how Napoli set up. Antonio Conte has always favoured a 3-4-3 shape at every club he’s managed, and Napoli are no different, with Antonio Vergara and Miguel Gutierrez expected to operate down his side of the pitch.

The pair won three fouls in Napoli’s 1-1 draw with Copenhagen last week, drawing two fouls from Marcos Lopez, who lined up as a left back in that encounter. Cucurella tends to be pretty hands-on regardless of his opponent and has committed 12 fouls across his five starts in the Champions League this term (2.30 per 90).

This healthy record could warrant exploring a few higher lines or a card for Cucurella as he’s likely to be involved in multiple 1v1 duels. Gutierrez has been particularly effective at winning fouls in the Champions League this season from right wing back, with six drawn across his three starts in the competition (1.94 per 90).

Chelsea have been leaning on corners as a route to goal when frustrated from open play all season, and their use of corners has increased further since Liam Rosenior was appointed as manager. The Blues racked up 15 corners in their 1-0 win over Pafos last week, with their goal coming from a corner in that clash as well.

Chelsea also covered this corner count over the weekend in racking up five corners as they beat Crystal Palace 3-1. 10 of Chelsea’s 39 goals in the Premier League this season have come from set pieces (26%). Chelsea have covered this corner line in four of their five matches under Liam Rosenior so far. 

Conte will have Napoli well drilled here in their 3-4-3 shape, so we could see a similar scenario for Chelsea as we have done in recent matches, where they have to rack up corners just to get a sight of goal. The gamestate also suits this selection, a win is required for Chelsea if they want to finish in the top eight, so I wouldn’t expect the Blues to be overly pragmatic.

Estevao scored a brilliant goal at the weekend as he capitalised on a mistake from Palace to race away from Tyrick Mitchell and fire past Dean Henderson. 

That little snapshot shows just how mature Estevao is for his age, the run and finish are impressive on their own, but to anticipate the mistake and shield the ball from Mitchell in the way he did shows that the Brazilian is far more mature than his age suggests. 

He’s had a lot of success in the Champions League this season, which is a common outcome for players who come from foreign leagues to the Premier League. The physicality and intensity of the English top-flight always takes time to adapt to, but there isn’t as much of that in the Champions League, which has allowed Estevao to blossom.

Estevao has netted three goals across his three starts in the Champions League this season, which includes a goal against Barcelona, which he also took exceptionally well. Estevao doesn’t appear to be phased by pressure, which is a massive advantage to Chelsea here as we can expect him to play with the same fearlessness he has shown throughout the season.

Estevao has registered seven goal contributions across his appearances in the Premier League and Champions League this term. If we look at the actual minutes that Estevao has played in those appearances, he’s averaging a goal contribution every 147 minutes for Chelsea. 

One of McTominay’s strongest traits is his ability to shield the ball and win fouls. He’s been fouled in four of his last five Champions League appearances, drawing multiple fouls in two of those games. His clash against Chelsea’s midfield really stands out to me here, with the early signs being that Rosenior wants an extra body in those areas.

Chelsea lined up with a midfield three of Moises Caicedo, Enzo Fernandez and Andrey Santos against Crystal Palace, and that trio may continue here as Chelsea had a great balance in that clash with those three in central areas. The trio combine to commit 5.58 fouls per 90 in the Champions League this season, suggesting that they are the perfect trio to haul down McTominay on a few occasions in this clash.

McTominay has won 46 fouls across his 20 starts in Serie A this season (2.30 per 90), showing that it is already a consistent part of his game, which can increase when factoring in the aggression of his potential opponents. McTominay has won a further nine fouls across his seven appearances in the Champions League this term, working out to an average of 1.33 fouls won per 90.

Joao Pedro took his goal really well against Crystal Palace at the weekend, but I don’t think he’s best suited to lead the Chelsea line in this clash. Whoever leads the line for Chelsea here will face up against three incredibly physical centre backs - so it’s important that they have the physical profile for the challenge.

This is where Delap can be valuable to Chelsea. He hasn’t had the easiest of starts to life at Chelsea, but one thing that has caught my eye with Delap is how preoccupied he is with getting in a physical tussle with the opposition centre back instead of making himself available for more effective striker play.

This results in Delap consistently giving away cheap cards and fouls. The fact that he’ll be outnumbered when contesting the majority of his duels is very advantageous for our selection, as we’re likely to see the extreme end of Delap’s grappling with the opposition centre back. Delap has picked up two yellow cards across his eight starts in the Premier League this season from 12 fouls (1.80 per 90).