🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Torquay Utd (-1) Handicap @ 2.25

Here's an interesting angle in National League South this Saturday.

It's the final day of the season, and any of the top six sides can still win the title and secure automatic promotion.

I've looked more into the situation with the current top two, Truro (1st) travel to relegation-battling St Albans, while Torquay (2nd) travel to nothing-to-play-for Hemel Hempstead.

Both sides are on the same points, and the title/only automatic promotion spot will be decided on goal difference. So if both win, it’s on Torquay to make up the ground, and they are currently worse off on goal difference by two goals.

To put it simply, Torquay will need to better Truro’s scoreline by a three-goal margin to guarantee promotion.

This has the feel of the Bristol Rovers 7-0 Scunthorpe scenario from 2021/22 League Two’s final day. Despite only being 2-0 up at half time, when Northampton won 3-1 at Barrow, levelling their goal difference tallies and sneaking into the third automatic promotion spot on goals scored, Bristol Rovers went on to score five more.

Torquay Utd sit top of the 10-match form table, with eight wins and just five goals conceded. They've won six of their last seven matches, without conceding a goal in any of these wins.

Torquay have already sold out their allocation of 1,900, which means they’ll fill over half the stadium.

My tip would be to take Torquay -1 handicap, which is priced at 2.25 on Paddy Power.

We'd need them to win by two or more goals, and considering they may need to score three or more for the title/promotion, I'm happy to take the risk.