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Spain v Netherlands
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Kick Off: Sunday 23rd March at 19:45
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Competition: UEFA Nations League
An action-packed first leg saw these sides play out a 2-2 draw with Netherlands being reduced to 10 men in the latter stages due to a red card for Jorrel Hato. Spain were a level below their blistering best which carried them to the European Championship trophy last summer, but will be confident of seeing out the tie on home ground where they’ve got a really strong international record.
Ronald Koeman’s side can take plenty of positives from their first leg performance, they fought back well to get on level terms following Nico Williams’ opener in the first 10 minutes. They then took the lead shortly after half time only to be pegged back right at the end thanks to a late equaliser from Mikel Merino.
⭐ Spain v Netherlands Best Bet
Huijsen has seen a meteoric rise since nailing down a starting spot for his club side, Bournemouth. He’s set to come in to make his first international start after an injury to Pau Cubarsi in the first leg, he made his debut in that game and was shown a yellow card for a foul that the referee initially played advantage for. Huijsen is the perfect modern centre back which is why he is catching the eye of so many of Europe’s biggest clubs, including Real Madrid.
One of Huijsen’s main assets which also contributes to his foul record is how comfortable he is in advanced areas of the pitch. You’ll often see him stepping into midfield or even as high as the left half space when in possession. This allows Huijsen to act as an extra body for Spain but also increases his chances of committing a foul, given that he could be caught out of position or have to engage with players in those central areas.
Andoni Iraola has recognised those strengths and platformed him excellently with his performances catching the eye of Luis de la Fuente. Huijsen is averaging 1.17 fouls committed per 90 across his 23 Premier League appearances this season which is a record that can translate to the international stage. He’ll be up against Memphis Depay who was brought down once in the first leg and is averaging 1.21 fouls won per 90 across his 11 domestic appearances this season.
🟢 Spain v Netherlands #WhatOddsPaddy Tip
Spain are favourites to come out on top here and should be able to build on their strong home record in the Nations League this campaign. Spain have won all three of their games at home in the Nations League, scoring seven goals and conceding just two. By contrast, Netherlands are yet to win a game on the road in the Nations League, only scoring two goals across the three games they’ve played on the road during the campaign.
BTTS landed in the first leg which saw plenty of goalmouth action for both sides. Spain have found the back of the net in six of their seven games in the Nations League this season with the exception coming against Serbia on the opening matchday. Netherlands have also scored in six of their seven games in the competition and will take confidence from their first leg performance.
Spain had four corners in the first leg and should be able to comfortably cover this line again as the home side. Netherlands had two corners in the first leg but you would expect this to increase at some point with Spain likely to get their noses in front here prompting a more front-footed approach from the away side.
There was a fair amount of needle in the first leg with both sides picking up 2+ cards. There was also a red card for Jarrel Hato in the game after a reckless challenge on Robin Le Normand late on. This should continue in this second leg with tempers set to run high after the scraps that took place in the first leg.
👕 Spain v Netherlands Predicted XI
🔍 Spain v Netherlands Players to Watch
🟠 Cody Gakpo
Cody Gakpo always seems primed for the international stage, he was essential in carrying the Netherlands to the semi-finals of last year’s European Championship as well as scoring Netherlands’ equaliser in the first leg of this tie, a game in which he registered three shots on goal.
Gakpo is averaging 2.80 shots per 90 across his 26 Premier League appearances this season as well as posting an average of 2.56 shots per 90 in the Nations League this campaign, resulting in three goals for the 25-year-old. Gakpo can hurt Spain again here, the Netherlands were more impressive than initially anticipated in dismantling the Spain press which wasn’t the most organised in the first leg – which should see Gakpo have a few sights of goal here.
🟠 Virgil van Dijk
Van Dijk is usually so assured at the back that it is a surprise to see him struggling to deal with attackers, as was the case in the first leg. The front three of Nico Williams, Alvaro Morata and Lamine Yamal caused the Liverpool centre back plenty of problems as evidenced by the fact that he committed three fouls in the game – a massive increase on his 1.23 fouls committed per 90 in the Nations League this season.
Spain play with plenty of rotations in the final third and very intelligently look to isolate opposition players against their tricky wingers in wide areas, which naturally sees these players commit fouls. Van Dijk’s foul committed average in the Nations League is an increase on his average in the Premier League this season (0.41 per 90), suggesting that he isn’t offered as much protection by his national side.
📂 Spain v Netherlands Cheat Sheet
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💻 Spain v Netherlands Form and Tactics
Netherlands managed to find their way through the Spanish press on a few occasions mainly due to their double pivot. Frenkie De Jong and Tijjani Reijnders are excellent in the middle of the park with the former being particularly press-resistant, this meant Spain had limited success in winning the ball back in the final third which threw off their attacking setup during the game, the metrics suggest that Spain were on top but these numbers are slightly inflated given that Spain dominated the game following Jarrel Hato’s red card.
Jeremie Frimpong was particularly impressive for Netherlands in the first leg, he provided an assist and was awarded the Player of the Match for his performance. He’s been playing in a more advanced role for Bayer Leverkusen this season which has caught the eye of Ronald Koeman, and he is likely to continue in this position given how effective he was in the first leg with his raw speed offering a different angle to Netherlands’ attack.
Not much has changed with Spain’s approach from their European Championship winning campaign, but they will find that the top sides are set up better against them now that they have an idea of how they will look to play. Spain remain a possession-based side but are more likely to play in a direct manner when the opportunity presents itself. Spain attempt to deploy a fierce counter-press when they lose the ball in the final third, Luis de la Fuente has introduced an element of chaos to a traditionally patient team which has aided their flexibility on the international stage.
🏁 Spain v Netherlands Ref Watch
- Referee: Clément Turpin
| Average Cards (Y / R) | 3.00 / 0.00 |
| Fouls Given | 26.00 |
| Penalties | 1.00 |
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* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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