Fulham have been excellent this season, but they will be up against it on Sunday afternoon. First of all travelling almost the length of England, but more importantly they face off against a side that have neutralised most attacking threats this season.

The Geordies are absolutely flying, both on and off the pitch. The atmosphere for Newcastle v Leicester almost took the roof off and translated into a dominant 2-0 victory with 8 shots on target to Leicester’s one. It was a performance Newcastle fans have become accustomed to as they held the away side to under 1 xG for the 7th straight domestic home game, keeping their 7 home game clean sheet streak alive. This dominant back line have been the heartbeat of the side, holding sides to 8 shots per game compared to the 12.67 opponents averaged last season.

Fulham have travelled well recently, but defeating Hull, Leicester and Palace is far less of a challenge than what they face today. Three clean sheets on the spin, show how Marco Silva has tightened up the back line that shipped 2 or more to City, Leeds, West Ham, Forest, Spurs, Arsenal and Crawley. However, the underlying numbers show that Fulham may not have solved their issues. Shipping over 1 xG to Leicester, 2.25 to City and struggling to maintain possession show how Newcastle may be able to dominate the ball with the likes of Bruno Guimares in midfield. This game will be won and lost in the midfield as the creators look to supply both front 3’s. Newcastle are the more complete outfit and Fulham should struggle in this atmosphere.

Per my cheat sheet, Fulham average 2.42 cards per game, enough to land this selection. I really wouldn’t be surprised to see them go over this number though with 3+ given Newcastle’s track record at home. Fulham’s average cards jump up by 0.3 on the road, and their fouls committed per 90 rises as well to 11.38 from 10.96.

All the evidence for cards is shown on the cheat sheet. Tete, Reid, Mitrovic, Andreas and Palhinha all feature in the top 5 for fouls and share 27 cards between them this season. All of Newcastle’s front 3 feature on my fouls drawn section as they win fouls by counter attacking with pace that other sides can’t contain. Furthermore, from a tactical perspective, Newcastle should see more of the ball than usual today shown by the possession stats as Fulham average just 46% on the road. Giving Newcastle’s playmakers like Guimares and Trippier more time on the ball should see Newcastle progress the ball to higher areas of the pitch and overrun Fulham, drawing cards from a card heavy side.

As already mentioned, Newcastle should be able to advance the ball to higher areas of the pitch than usual, which should in turn force more shots and therefore more corners too. Possibly even more, than the 7.2 Newcastle averages at St. James Park this season.

Kieran Trippier’s dead ball quality is enough of an incentive for Newcastle to try and win set pieces, shown by 34.4% of his corners resulting in shots, compared to opponents against Newcastle averaging just 24.9%. Newcastle averaging the 3rd most corners in the Prem per 90 evidences this and they should have plenty today given Fulham concede more than the league average of 4.58.

Antonee Robinson’s suspension should see Layvin Kurzawa step in, low on match fitness. In an attempt to target this weakness, particularly given Palhinha, Reed and Pereira’s form in the middle, Newcastle will be expected to feed Trippier, Almiron, Burn and Joelinton out wide. The inverted wingers should give Newcastle more opportunity for overlaps and crosses into Wilson, the most likely way for Newcastle to win corners.

One of many feel good stories from Newcastle’s season, Paraguayan Miguel Almiron has arguably been the star man in this special year for the Magpies. Half of his 18 goals since joining in 2019 have come this season as Almiron had already reached his highest goal scoring season before the turn of the New Year.

Shining with the freedom given to him by Howe, Almiron averages 3.79 dribbles per game and has improved his success rate to 47.8%, higher than ever before. As opposing managers try to account for Trippier’s threat hugging the sideline like a traditional full back, Almiron has been able to pick up the spaces left inside to use his stronger left foot to trouble the keeper.

As I mentioned before, Robinson misses this game and it will take Kurzawa time to get up to speed in this game. With Almiron’s form, he could take advantage of any small slipups. Averaging 2.42 shots per game this season, he isn’t shy of a pop at goal which he will get with Fulham’s style.